As far as projections go, Marcel is almost a bare bones system but that doesn’t make it wrong. It uses some basic weights and regressions and you can read all about it here. If you’re a nerd like me, projections are still fun to look at even if they are crazy early. Allow me to share the work Replacement Level Yankees Weblog did for me. It’s basically the least I can do.
Marcel has the Angels and Rangers tied at 87-75 which would force a one-game playoff game to decide the division champ and which team makes the playoffs. Even with a potential extra wild card team, Tampa would have first dibs according to Marcel.
There are some issues with this system, of course. Marcel probably isn’t giving the Rangers new Japanese ace Yu Darvish enough credit. Marcel doesn’t park-adjust so it shouldn’t matter if you think Albert Pujols will hit more home home runs at Angel Stadium than he did at Busch last year. But it might not give Pujols enough credit for a bounce-back season, either, even though he was still pretty terrific in 2011.
What does it all mean? Frankly, it just means I spend too much time on the Internet and this is a slow time for baseball news. You’re welcome.
H/T: @enosarris for pointing out the Marcel link and I was joking about adding more playoff teams.