Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-US PRESSWIRE

Richard Brandon Wood was born on March 2, 1985 in Austin, Texas. Wow, Wood is already 27-years-old. Time must really fly when you can’t recognize off speed pitches. I kid because I love. April 19, 2011 was a sad day for me. It all came crashing to a halt. The Angels ended the Brandon Wood era by DFA’ing him to activate Erick Aybar. I basically eulogized Wood at Off Base Percentage. Wood hit .284/.352/.536 with 161 home runs over his eight seasons in the minors. He made it as high as Baseball America’s number three prospect in 2006 after he hit 43 home runs at High-A in 2005. We’ll always have the minors…

The 23rd overall pick in 2003 hit .168/.197/.259 with 153 strikeouts and 13 walks in 464 plate appearances with the Angels over five seasons. I’d say I broke fewer than a dozen lawn chairs in frustration over that time. Not too shabby considering I wasn’t quite the professional writer blogger keyboard masher I am today.

Going in to the 2011 season, my confidence in Wood was at an all time high. He worked on his swing with Yankees hitting instructor Kevin Long. Wood was in good shape and looking to put together a strong season. This would be his breakout year! I was so confident I sponsored Wood’s Baseball Reference page. At first, I didn’t see the connection. See, I had come down with a severe case of delusion in February 2011.

Wood struck out eight (8!) times in his first 15 plate appearances before he was DFA’d last season. In Wood’s final game as an Angel, he reached base on an error during a 15-4 beatdown by the Rangers. Wood hit .220/.277/.347 with 65 strikeouts and 19 walks for the Pirates during the remainder of the 2011 season. Signs of improvement? Wood took more walks in his 99 games with the Pirates than he did in the 173 with the Angels. Probably not. He was granted free agency on November 2.

Wood signed a minor league contract with the Rockies on November 17. I’m pretty sure this is the season he hits 25 bombs. I mean, Coors Field. Of course, my delusion usually flairs up this time of year.

Regardless of my unconditional and irresponsible love for Brandon Wood, my sponsorship of his Baseball-Reference page will expire before Spring Training ends. It’s the end of an era. Get this. His page costs $40 more this year than it did last season when he was actually on a Major League team. Pretty sure it has something to do with rising oil prices.

This was probably too many words about Brandon Wood. If you made it this far, come on over for his birthday party. I’ll have a Fudgie the Whale, a Cookiepuss and a cardboard cutout of Brandon wearing a party hat.

Aug 28, 2011; Arlington, TX, USA; Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Jered Weaver (36) reacts to getting pulled in the 7th inning against the Texas Rangers at Rangers Ballpark. The Rangers beat the Angels 9 to 5. Mandatory Credit: Tim Heitman-US PRESSWIRE

I enjoy the advanced metrics. Quite a bit, actually. I’m also a big fan of the work over at Baseball Prospectus. So, I’ll excuse you if you don’t share my excitement for the day when they release their PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm) projections. You can read more about it, the adjustments they made for 2012 and download the spreadsheet here. High school MJ is ashamed of current MJ for being this excited about spreadsheets.

*WARP is wins above replacement player*

The Good

Albert Pujols: 37 HR, .305/.402/.556, 7.5 WARP
PECOTA is rather fond of the Angels big acquisition. It’s projecting him to be the most valuable player in baseball and tie for the most home runs with Prince Fielder. Could Pujols follow in Vlad Guerrero’s footsteps and win the MVP with the Angels after switching leagues? PECOTA likes his chances.

The Rotation:
Jered Weaver: 231 IP, 7.9 K/9, 3.11 ERA, 5 WARP
Dan Haren: 224 IP, 7.8 K/9, 3.05 ERA, 5 WARP
C.J. Wilson: 207.2 IP, 8.2 K/9, 3.11 ERA, 4.6 WARP
Ervin Santana: 194.1 IP, 7.5 K/9, 3.94 ERA, 2.1 WARP
The Angels boast two of the top seven pitchers by WARP and three of the top 12. The Phillies are the next closest with three in the top 20.

Chris Iannetta: 15 HR, .223/.339/.391, 2.4 WARP
Jerry Dipoto’s trade for Iannetta was overshadowed by the Pujols and Wilson signings but it shouldn’t be overlooked. The jettisoned Jeff Mathis put up a -0.8 WARP in 2011. A three win upgrade last season would have tied the Angels with Wild Card winners Tampa Bay. Hypothetical, sure, but Iannetta is a major upgrade over Mathis even if it leaves Hank Conger’s future with the team a question mark.

The Bad

Peter Bourjos: 12 HR, 26 SB, .257/.303/.399, 1.2 WARP
PECOTA is looking for some regression at the plate from Bourjos’ .271/.327/.438 line in 2011 and over a win from his 2.9 WARP. I wasn’t expecting another big step forward for Bourjos but I don’t think his .327 OBP was a fluke either. His BABiPs and OBPs in the minors were similar if not higher than in 2011 so there’s a chance he can keep that up at the plate.

Mike Trout: 183 PA, 3 HR, 9 SB, .260/.320/.383, 0.4 WARP
The disappointing news here is PECOTA is only penciling Trout in for 183 plate appearances. While Trout has nothing left to prove in the minors as a 20-year-old, he might be destined for Triple-A if the Angels don’t man-up and sit Vernon Wells. Trout would be better off playing everyday in the minors until Wells hits the disabled list for his OBP allergy.

Jordan Walden: 4.28 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, -0.1 WARP
PECOTA has most of Walden’s stats going in the wrong direction in 2012. It has his ERA, walk rate and home runs going up from 2011 and his strikeout rate and wins above replacement going down. He’s still going to throw 99 MPH though, right? I don’t see the K/9 falling drastically from 10.0 to 7.6 in 2012. I think Walden will be just fine.

The Ugly

Vernon Wells: 407 PA, 12 HR, .251/.299/.404, 0.8 WARP
While this would be a nice improvement from his 2011 AVG and OBP, his WARP would actually go down! The near $25 million the Angels will pay Wells in 2012 is over double what they’ll pay Pujols. You so crazy, baseball.

Mark Trumbo: 258 PA, 11 HR, 14 BB, .297 OBP
Coming off an injury and most likely losing his position to a free agent, playing time for Trumbo is an issue. He’ll see time at DH, possibly with Kendrys Morales, but I don’t see him playing more than a handful of brutal games at third base this season. Even with a decrease in plate appearances, I’d bet on him hitting more home runs than drawing walks just like in 2011. And I’ll take the second season of a sub .300 OBP while we’re at it.

Brandon Wood: 256 PA, 10 HR, 66 K, .238/.288/.411, 0.9 WARP
He may be a Rockie in real life but he’ll always be an Angel in my heart. I think I just wrote a country song. The Brandon Wood experiment came to an end for the Angels in 2011 and his time with the Pirates didn’t inspire much confidence. If Coors Field can’t help him, he’ll be playing Independent Ball with Jose Canseco wondering where it all went wrong. The good or sad new depending on how you want to look at it? If Wood is close to his 2012 PECOTA projections, it will be his best season by far.

Once upon a time, Kotchman was the Angels top prospect. The Halos selected him with the 13th pick in the 2001 draft. Long time Angels scout Tom Kotchman probably had some decent inside information on his son. According to Baseball America, Kotchman was the team’s top prospect in 2002, 2004 and 2005. He debuted in 2004 but didn’t become the full time first baseman until 2007.

In 2007, Kotchman posted a .296/.372/.467 line and a 1.7 WARP (wins above replacement player) which was his best season until 2011. Kotchman toed the replacement player level in 2008 and 2009 before falling under it 2010. A 1.8 WARP season with the Rays in 2011 earned him a $3 million deal with the Indians.

Brandon Wood would take over as the Angels top prospect from 2006-2008. I love Mike Trout and think he’s going to be every bit as good as advertised. But Kotchman and Wood haven’t exactly set a good precedent for Angels prospects. Here’s the fWAR (Fangraphs wins above replacement) graph by age for the pair of three time number one Angels prospects and reigning two time top prospect…

Source: FanGraphs — Casey Kotchman, Brandon Wood, Mike Trout

That little green blip is Trout already off to a much better start than the other two. I’m developing quite the knack for turning any post or conversation into a Mike Trout love fest. My non-baseball-fan-friends especially adore it.