Halo Hangout » darin erstad http://halohangout.com A Los Angeles Angels Fan Site - News, Blogs, Opinion and More Wed, 16 May 2012 23:10:04 +0000 en hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.3.1 Deep Freese: Cards Put Texas Title Hopes on Ice in Game Six Classic http://halohangout.com/2011/10/28/deep-freese-cards-put-texas-title-hopes-on-ice-in-game-six-classic/ http://halohangout.com/2011/10/28/deep-freese-cards-put-texas-title-hopes-on-ice-in-game-six-classic/#comments Fri, 28 Oct 2011 22:50:01 +0000 Dan Cavender http://halohangout.com/?p=2679

St. Louis Cardinals' David Freese (23) reacts to his game-winning home run in the 11th inning that gave the Cardinals a series-tying 10-9 win against the Texas Rangers in Game 6 of the World Series.(Dallas Morning News)

Well that was fun.

David Freese‘s walk-off eleventh inning blast to dead center off little-used Mark Lowe capped off what proved to be another in an ever-mounting list of late inning Game Six heroics in World Series lore. Game Seven may be packed with pressure on both sides, but Game Six is where memories are made.

Tonight’s finale certainly will not be able to live up to yesterday’s predecessor. If it does, I’m not sure my eyeholes can take it. While we still have last night’s epic Epic still fresh in our minds let’s see where it ranks among the best Game Sixes in recent memory:

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]]> http://halohangout.com/2011/10/28/deep-freese-cards-put-texas-title-hopes-on-ice-in-game-six-classic/feed/ 0 On Kendry Morales and Regression http://halohangout.com/2010/02/15/on-kendry-morales-and-regression/ http://halohangout.com/2010/02/15/on-kendry-morales-and-regression/#comments Mon, 15 Feb 2010 19:44:00 +0000 Nate Proctor http://halohangout.com/2010/02/15/on-kendry-morales-and-regression/ Regression, or regression to the mean, is not something that is typically talked about in non-saber baseball forums and blogs, in my experience. The basic concept is that players will have times when they will play above their skill level, and because of things like a small sample size or a player have a stretch of good luck, their numbers will be better than their actual skill level. As that sample size increases, however, the luck will run out or the stretch of playing over their heads will end, and their numbers will start to trend back towards their actual skill level. The “mean” is their skill level, and the “regression” is their stats falling back in line with that skill level.

We can find plenty of examples of this with even a short glace around baseball. In 2007, Joe Saunders put up a 3.41 ERA, despite never before or since posting anything better than a 4.44 ERA. Looking even a little deeper into his numbers, we discover he had an obscenely low .267 BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play, which measures how many times a ball put in play will go for a hit), which is a full 25 points lower than his career BABIP, and certainly helped with his lower numbers. Simply put, pitches of his that were put into play weren’t finding holes then like they are now. Darin Erstad is another fine example. In 2000, he hit .355/.409/.541, which is a really good season for a lot of people, but was clearly an out-of-his-mind season for a career .282/.336/.407 hitter. The very next season, his OPS dropped an absurd 260 points, and in the nine seasons of baseball he’s played since 2000, he’s never come even remotely close to repeating those numbers.

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