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After the 2nd inning of last night’s game against the Red Sox, with starter Ervin Santana already at 52 pitches, I expected that it would be another long night of watching the bullpen flounder around, trying to get more outs than the amount of runs they’d give up, and probably failing. Over the night five innings, Santana surprised me and probably many others by rebounding and going 7 strong innings, giving up 1 run, while allowing 7 hits, 1 BB, and 7 K and throwing 115 pitches in route to a no-decision. After a game in which Saunders only lasted 4 innings and the team gave up 17 runs, it was a badly needed outing, and Santana delivered.

Going up against Jon Lester, who has not yet performed up with his talent level, it was also necessary if the Angels were to have any chance of winning. And oh, did they have chances. I don’t know if you have ever seen a Win Probability Added graph, but it basically shows the chances a team has of winning the game on a play-by-play basis. It’s actually quite interesting to watch, and I did it a lot during last year’s playoff run. To see how truly interesting it can be, check out the WPA graph from the Tigers-Twins game at the end of last year.

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I’m sure by now everyone has noticed, but in case you haven’t, Mike Napoli hasn’t been playing much lately. And apparently, he’s not very happy about it. I can’t really say I blame him. If I’m being honest here, I’m not terribly happy about it either.

In the Angels’ first 11 games, Napoli has played in 4 games, with Mathis handling the rest. To be fair to Mathis, he hasn’t hit like Jeff Mathis in those games, sporting a current line of .333/.346/.458, and there’s something to be said for going with the hot hand. Of course, there’s also something to be said for paying attention to a player’s history. Mathis may be riding a 7-game hitting streak right now, but over the previous 265 games before that, spread over the past five seasons, Mathis put up an uber-unimpressive .200/.277/.320 line. In case you’re curious, that would put Mathis’ AVG since 2005, even with his hot start in 2010, more than 10 points under the Mendoza Line. Napoli, on the other hand, has a .255/.356/.489 over the past five seasons. That is 241 points of difference in OPS. That is literally the difference, in OPS, between Albert Pujols and Nick Swisher. I’m not trying to argue that Napoli is the catcher version of Pujols, but instead to illustrate the giant gap that 241 points of OPS is. Napoli and Mathis have shown themselves to be vastly different hitters, and it’s hard for me to believe Mathis has changed all that in one off-season.

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Before the 2009 season, Kendry Morales was the much-hyped prospect from Cuba that was stuck first behind Casey Kotchman, and then Mark Teixeira at first base. With Kotchman traded for Teixeira, and the Angels unable to resign Tex after the 2008 season, it was up to Morales to give the Angels a solid, power bat at first base. As everyone knows, he delivered better than most anyone would’ve realistically expected him to.

Morales had seen playing time with the major league club, registering over 400 Plate Appearances between 2006 and 2008, though he only compiled a .249/.302/.408 line, which is not exactly impressive for 1B. The following 622 PA’s changed all that, when Morales put up a .306/.355/.569 line and finished 5th in MVP voting. While not the most valuable player the Angels had last season (that title goes to the departed Chone Figgins, unfortunately), Morales was clearly a big part of the offense. This season, with Figgins gone north to Seattle and Torii Hunter coming off of a career year, he’s going to have to play an even bigger role. The question, of course, is if he will repeat his numbers, or will regression sink it’s nasty teeth into Morales’ 2010 numbers?

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