Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Probably the most perplexing move that the Los Angeles Angels have made this off-season involves signing back of the rotation starting pitcher Joe Blanton to a 2-year, $15 million dollar deal. A quick glance over Joe Blanton‘s career numbers and there seems to be very little to write home about a big check for.

In his career, Joe Blanton has an ERA of 4.37 and gives up an average of  just under 10 hits per nine innings. His career WHIP is 1.33 while his career strikeout rate per nine innings is 6.1. His home run per nine inning rate is in the bottom 10 of the major leagues over the last two years. In other words, Joe Blanton seems to be your quintessential average-to-below-average pitcher.

Yet, there are still believers in Joe Blanton and Angels GM Jerry Dipoto must be one of them. And maybe they are onto something.

Chris Cwik showcased in the Rotographs section of Fangraphs that Joe Blanton has an exceptional ability to control the strike-zone with one of the best strikeout to walk ratios in the game over the past two years. In fact, he’s fourth under Cliff Lee, Roy Halladay and Dan Haren during that time period.

Cwik also was quick to point out that Blanton’s biggest flaw — giving up the home run — will likely be suppressed pitching in Angels Stadium as well as the AL West where stadiums like the Oakland Coliseum and SafeCo Field are places that home runs often go to die on the warning track.

Jeff Sullivan piped in on Blanton the same day:

“…last season Blanton allowed a contact rate of just over 78 percent. He allowed less frequent contact than Zack Greinke, Matt Garza, Josh Johnson, and Anibal Sanchez. Not only does Blanton pound the strike zone; it’s not that easy to put the bat on the ball.”

Sullivan also pointed out that Blanton’s velocity has actually been increasing. I will add that his strikeouts per nine innings ratio has also increased over the course of his career. From 2006-2008, Blanton was averaging 5.4 strike outs per nine innings. From 2009 to 2012 that has risen to 7.4.

Another factor that is easy to overlook in Blanton’s career numbers is the unusually large gap between his xFIP and his ERA. What can you deduce from that? That maybe Joe Blanton is better pitcher than you think and that he might be getting screwed by something (defense, luck) since FIP measures what a player’s ERA should have looked like assuming that performance on balls in play and timing were league average.

Also, Joe Blanton is durable.  Since 2004, Blanton has hit the DL only three times. Once because of an abdomen strain and twice because of an elbow impingement which he tried to come back too early from.

Finally, consider the number five spot in the Angels starting rotation in the past three years they have failed to make the playoffs. They’ve consisted of the following pitchers: Scott Kazmir, Tyler Chatwood, Jerome Williams, and Garrett Richards.

We can probably assume, with very little trepidation, that Joe Blanton will be better and more consistent than any of these pitchers in 2012.

Hopefully, it’s now a little clearer why the Angels signed Joe Blanton. He won’t sell too many (or any) t-shirts but he will likely give the Angels durability and consistency at the number five spot in the rotation. Something they haven’t had in a long time.

Credit: Kirby Lee/Image of Sport-US PRESSWIRE

Players don’t seem come cheap for the Angels anymore. In 2012, the team sat fourth highest in payroll and it doesn’t look to be going down with two major rotation spots to fill and a strong push to sign Zack Greinke.

However, with B.J. Upton signing a five-year, $75 million dollar contract with the Atlanta Braves yesterday and with Michael Bourn and Josh Hamilton likely to sign for similar if not more money; the Angels find themselves in a nice and affordable place when it comes to the center field position.

At first, BJ Upton may not seem worth the contract he inked yesterday. After all, his batting line last year was an unimpressive .246/.298/.454. However, early reactions have been positive of the signing due to BJ Upton’s considerable upside. As RJ Anderson wrote recently at Baseball Prospectus, “No free agent receives more credit for his remaining upside than Upton does.”

With Upton now with the Atlanta Braves, we now wait and see what Josh Hamilton and Michael Bourn — the other center fielders on the free agent market who are also high-risk/high-reward like Upton — sign for.

Luckily for the Angels, they have two center fielders they are happy with. One just won Rookie of the Year. You know his name. According to Jerry Dipoto he’ll move to left field next year for the other center fielder, Peter Bourjos.

Until Denard Span signed with the Nationals today, Peter Bourjos’ name has often been linked in a possible trade with Washington. Now with Span headed to the Nationals that seems unlikely.

It probably always was, though.

Both Bourjos and Trout are under team control until 2017. In 2013, their combined salary is expected to sit at around (and possibly under) $1 million dollars.

Think of that when Hamilton and Bourn put ink to paper with a new ball club.

With a few major rotation spots to fill and a bullpen that needs some rebuilding, the Angels talented and cheap starting outfield is likely to remain untouched this off-season. And that’s probably the smartest non-move they can make.

Credit: Rick Osentoski-US PRESSWIRE

After committing $325 million dollars to CJ Wilson and Albert Pujols last off-season, the Angels finished third in the AL West with the highest payroll in team history and fourth in the major leagues. Should they really commit a long-term deal worth over $100 million to a single player?

Is it really such a crazy question to ask?

Currently, the Angels have $92 million dollars committed and four players who are arbitration eligible which estimating on the high-end, should cost the Angels $8-10 million and put the Angels payroll at roughly $100 million. Leaving them something to the effect of $50-55 million to spend this year.

If the Angels signed Greinke to his desired $150 million over 7 years that would average out to $21.4 million a year for the right-handed pitcher. In all likelihood, Greinke does not get his desired contract and earns less but let’s roll with the worst-case scenario. That leaves the Angels payroll for 2013 at roughly $122 million for 2013.

The Good

At $122 million that still leaves the Angels $32 million under their 2012 payroll. Assuming owner Arte Moreno is willing to maintain the payroll at last years $154 million, that’s $32 million (which due to our high estimation might be more) that could be used to sign a short-term deal for a back-end pitcher (maybe even 2!) and bolster the bullpen.

The Bad

The big contracts that the Angels signed last year are all backloaded. Pujols is owed $16 million in 2013 but that jumps up to $23 million in 2014 and increases by 1 million each year until his contract expires in 2021.

The same goes for CJ Wilson who is owed $11 million next year but $16 million in 2014, increasing by $2 million each year after that until 2016. Jered Weaver has a similar contract that has him earning $16 million in 2013 and 2014 but increasing after that.

The Ugly

As of right now, the Angels have over $65 million committed to three players in 2016 who all be in their mid to late 30s by then. In other words, adding another long-term expensive contract in signing Greinke would leave the Angels more financially hand-cuffed in seasons to come.

This could become a major factor when trying to sign future free agents. Not to mention that if Mike Trout remains healthy and productive, the Angels will be facing some hefty arbitration years come 2015.

Win Now, Deal With Fallout Later

From the lucrative contracts that the Angels have been handing out over the past couple of years, the front office seems poised on winning now and willing to deal with the fallout of being financially constrained to aging players in their mid-30s later.

It may be the right mentality for the Angels to spend now. They have a solid core of players in the prime of their career, many of them still relatively cheap. Signing Greinke to a long-term deal is a good bet to help improve this club’s chances of winning now. The question lies in whether it’s worth the financial burden it will add to future years.

If the past few years are any indication, the Angels will spend big again this off-season. And if they win a championship, then it’s probably worth it. But if they don’t, the Angels will be staring down a future of bloated contracts to aging players seasons to come.