Fist bump baby, fist bump.

At this point in the season though, bad decisions are magnified to the nth degree, and skipping Ervin Santana‘s last start so he could pitch in Texas while allowing C.J. Wilson to remain on his regularly scheduled days could be Mike Scioscia’s biggest mistake.

Big Erv’s 2012 can easily be summed up in one word, inconsistent. He was not our best option at the beginning of the season, but was victimized by severe bad luck (I’m sure you also remember his string of bad starts where the Angels offense decided that winning the Golf way was the way to go). He’s been decidedly bad for the balance of the season, with enough decent to outstanding starts to convince Scioscia to keep him in the rotation and move Jermoe Williams to the bullpen when the rotation got crowded.

Since hitting rock bottom on July 21st when he gave up six runs in 1.2 innings, we have seen, not much better, but a much more serviceable Ervin Santana. It might not save him from having his option declined, but he has most certainly earned his regularly scheduled starts.

The straight edged racer has been a completely different set of “what the hell is going on with this guy” talk. He started off the year as billed after signing a five year $75 million contract. After his June 26th start he was 9-4 with a 2.36 ERA, the dominant left handed starter the Angels have needed since Joe Saunders was shipped to the Diamondbacks in the Dan Haren Trade. Then, 11 straight starts without a registering a win. Dan Haren received a lot of attention for his inability to do anything right on the mound at this time, but C.J. was just as unreliable. He would have games where he gave up three runs, followed by a game where he’d give eight runs. For a pitcher that prides himself on his “Throw Strikes” mantra, C.J. has been in what seems like an endless string of 3-2 counts when he least needs to be, and getting burned in that moment.

But that is not what we are here talking about, so let’s just look at the here and now provided by these two pitchers. Since baseball is a game of “what have you done for me lately,” let’s just see who has been here for us lately.

Ervin Santana:

Wow. The man of a million different interests seems to no longer be interested in being a serviceable starting pitcher. The Angels have an even .500 record in his 12 starts since July 28th. His ERA has risen an entire run during that span. And, I’m not an expert or anything, but I’m gonna guess it’s all the walks and hits that Mr. Wilson has been giving up. And it was just a mere 11 days ago when C.J. couldn’t even get out of the third inning. What has Wilson done for us lately? He’s been lucky. Only twice has he gotten to the seventh inning or later, making himself an automatic bullpen drain. Yeah, that same bullpen that I personally would rather not see enter into any games early over the next five games.

Ervin should start over C.J. right? Wrong. According to this report on the team’s official site, Ervin was given “extra rest,” allowing him to go against the Rangers tonight and quite possibly close the book on his 2012 season (and maybe even his Angels career). C.J. took the mound against Felix Hernandez earlier this week, and will make his next scheduled start per the rotation setup. The plan apparently is to have Santana available to come out of the pen as a long reliever during the season’s final series against the Mariners (Probably on the day that C.J. pitches).

What would I have done? Not only would C.J. get skipped because I, simply put, cannot trust him right now, but I would have sandwiched Dan Haren in between a Three headed monster of Jered Weaver, Zack Greinke and Ervin Santana (all going on short rest). Shoving every single chip I’ve got into the pile. There’s no time for feelings at this point in the year, and I completely understand sending Ervin out against Texas, but at the same time, I’m not trusting an unreliable pitcher to take the hill either when the games mean as much as they do right now.

Mike Scioscia has made a couple of glaring mistakes this year, but this one right here, might be the one that I actually deem to be “inexcusable.”

September 13, 2012; Anaheim, CA, USA; Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Jered Weaver (36) pitches in the second inning against the Oakland Athletics at Angel Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gary A. Vasquez-US PRESSWIRE

Weaver started the year off in typical Jered Weaver fashion. Winning some games, and taking no decisions in the others. When Weaver went down with his back injury on May 28 he was 6-1 with a 2.61 ERA. Elite pitcher territory, but not the Cy Young territory he would vault himself into after going on the stretch he went on after returning from injury.

Post injury, Weaver was unbeatable. Over his first next nine starts he went 9-0, giving up more than two runs only once while holding opponents scoreless four times during that stretch. Putting him at 15-1 with a 2.13 ERA for the season at that point. CY Young anyone?

Nine Game Stretch of Awesome

Starting August 12, almost two months after returning from the DL, he started a five game stretch where he went 2-2 and watched his ERA jump to 2.86 (NOT 2.86! Hold on, lemme finish). His ERA for that stretch alone was 4.91.

Five Game Stretch of Not so Awesome

Barring a stretch of unmatched dominance over the next two weeks, that five game stretch has all but dashed the CY Young hopes for Jered. A seven inning scoreless start with nine strikeouts is a good way to kick off that stretch though.

We need Weaver (The good Weaver) if we want to play deep into October. And if shutting him down once every couple of months for a start is necessary to keep him strong for the stretch run, then it absolutely should be done. Especially since this is not the first time he has dealt with Biceps Tendinitis. The same tendinitis that forced him to miss his first couple of starts in 2008, and is something he has said that he deals with almost every year (probably explains his career August OPS+ against of 119).

A strong Jered Weaver, is a dominant Jered Weaver. He showed that last night, and hopefully shows that into November.

Weird coincidence that I’m going to take as a sign note: Jered’s first start after coming off the DL, the Angels won 6-0. Last night, the Angels won 6-0. The fact that I am totally irrational has nothing to do with the fact that I am taking this as a sign.

Sept. 8, 2012; Anaheim, CA, USA; Los Angeles Angels center fielder Mike Trout (27) gets high fives after Trout leaped the outfield wall to steal a home run off Detroit Tigers first baseman Prince Fielder (not pictured) for the final out of the game at Angel Stadium. Angels won 6-1. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-US PRESSWIRE

22 Games total left to be played.

16 games within the division.

Six games left to be played against the Rangers alone.

Currently the Angels sit six games behind the Rangers, and are on a surge that could catapult them to the division crown. I am not saying that they will win the division, but I am saying that they still absolutely can win the division, and having six games against the Texas boys helps immensely.

If you’ll indulge me and time travel back to last year on this date, the standings show the Angels at a very similar deficit as the St. Louis Cardinals.

After all games finished on 9/9/2012, The Cardinals were 77-67, six and a half games behind the 84-61 Braves with 18 games to be played. We all know how that ended. The Braves would go 5-12 the rest of the way and St. Louis would beat them out in the last day of the season. The Angels are currently 77-63 trailing the 83-57 Rangers by six games with 22 games to be played.

The Wild Card is obviously the easier and more attainable goal at this point with the Rangers showing no signs of slowing down, but to reiterate, we still have six games left against them.

First things first, the Halos have a four game set against the A’s. And at two and a half games behind the A’s, a big leap is very possible.

The Math

Angels sweep. We end this home stand one and a half games ahead of Oakland in one of the two Wild Card slots. This is the only way the Angels can finish this series if they want to guarantee that they are looking down on teams in the standings.

Angels take three of four. We finish the series a half game behind Oakland. Depending on how Baltimore and Tampa Bay play over the next four games we could still find ourselves in a wild card spot, but that is no longer guaranteed.

Split series. We are right back where we started.

A’s take three of four. We are now four and a half games behind them with only 18 games left.

A’s sweep *Plays Taps* Alright, maybe it’s too soon for a bugle solo, but it’s definitely warming up.

Am I eternally optimistic? You betcha. Am I grasping at straws when it comes to winning the division? Probably. But this is baseball, and as the old saying goes, anything can happen in baseball.