2 Angels pitchers who will surpass their projections, 1 who will not

The Angels' pitching staff is very much a work in progress, both in terms of team-building and what we can reasonably expect from the various players that currently make up the rotation and bullpen. A lot of questions need to be answered, and some will pleasantly surprise while others will sorely disappoint.

Right now, the best baseline we have for what to expect are the projections, and the Steamer Projections have some interesting ideas of what will happen with the Halos' hurlers in 2025. Projections, however, have their limitations and use what already happened to try to predict what will happen going forward. With that said, there are two arms that could delight and one that could be a letdown.

Reid Detmers will delight the Angels' fans

2025 Steamer Projection: 39 games, 18 starts 118.0 innings pitched, 3.85 ERA, 3.91 FIP, 1.7 fWAR

To say that 2024 was a rough year for Detmers would be putting it mildly. The 25-year-old southpaw entered the season looking to establish himself as a front-line starter, after two solid campaigns in 2022 and 2023.

By June, 2024 he was demoted back to the minors. Yet when he resurfaced during the season's conclusion, he showed some reasons for optimism by putting together a few solid starts...before imploding again to close out the season.

He finished 2024 with a 6.70 ERA in just 87.1 innings pitched. Some thought his time with the Halos had come to an end, however, here we are in January and he's a presumptive starter.

The good news is, Detmers can, and likely will fix his issues. His biggest bugaboo was the long ball, which bit him to the tune of 1.85 HR/9...worlds away from his 0.91 mark in 2022. If he can get that back on track closer to league average, his numbers start to look a lot better. Second, despite his issues, Detmers still missed bats at a near-elite level. His 11.23 K/9 was stellar, and his strikeout rate and whiff rate were in the 83rd and 77th percentiles, respectively. All told, Detmers' xERA for 2024 was a much more manageable 4.14.

His velocity never wavered last season and his ability to miss bats is still there. If he can limit his mistakes within the strike zone which got crushed last year he can get back on track and be well on his way to beating his projections.

Ben Joyce will dazzle for the Angels in 2025

2025 Steamer Projection: 64 games, 64.0 innings pitched, 27 saves, 3.34 ERA, 3.49 FIP, 0.6 fWAR

Joyce, 24-years-old, showed last season why he's an integral part of the Angels' young core. After a brief major league stint in 2023, he got larger exposure in 2024. He appeared in 31 games and tossed 34.2 innings, before a September IL stint due to shoulder inflammation cut his year short.

Even in that brief time, he was impressive, posting a 2.08 ERA and averaging an eye-watering 102.4 miles per hour on his fastball. Joyce is about as high-octane as it gets, joining Aroldis Chapman and Jordan Hicks as the only three pitchers to top 105 miles per hour in the Statcast era. Not only does Joyce have the velocity to blow hitters away, but he generates ground balls at an astonishing 58.9% clip.

Ground balls and strikeouts are the best two ways to get outs and limit damage, so why is Joyce's ERA projected to rise nearly a run and a quarter next season? Well, Steamer isn't bullish on his strikeout rate, which was below average for a reliever. Joyce only recorded an 8.57 K/9, but that doesn't tell the whole story. His whiff rate, 29.0%, was solidly above average. However, his chase rate, 25.9% was below average. With an elite, diverging fastball attack, he has the tools to rack up the K's. As he gains experience and learns how to play his secondary offerings off of his heat, the strikeouts will come. Perry Minasian is on-the-record as to saying he wants to add more veteran relievers to the Angels' bullpen to help maximize Joyce's potential.

It would not surprise to see Joyce emerge as one of 2025's elite relievers deliver and
well above these projections.

Big-ticket free agent acquisition Yusei Kikuchi will disappoint the Angels

2025 Steamer Projection: 31 games, 176.0 innings pitched, 3.74 ERA, 3.78 FIP, 3.1 fWAR

Expectations are high for the Japanese lefty who landed the highest contract the Halos have awarded to a free-agent starter in over a decade. With that type of cash comes expectations that he'll lead the staff. While the Steamer projection isn't exactly top-line ace material, it suggests that Kikuchi will be a durable and effective starter, worthy of a front-of-the-rotation role.

Here's the thing though, he's never really been that up to this point in his career, and it seems like a risky bet that he will suddenly become that as he approaches his 34th birthday this June. In fact, his projected 3.74 ERA would be the best mark of his career, and he has more seasons with an ERA over-5 (three years) than he does with an ERA under-4 (one year).

Kikuchi did have a strong second half last season, posting a 2.70 ERA over 10 starts (60.0 innings pitched) after being traded to the Houston Astros. Still, Kikuchi owns a career 4.57 ERA last season, was worth -0.9 fWAR in 2022, and has long struggled with the long ball.

Despite spending half his career toiling in the pitcher-friendly confines in Seattle, he has posted a sky-high 1.57 HR/9. Pitchers in their mid-30s rarely unlock a new level of performance, and therefore Kikuchi is highly unlikely to beat his optimistic projections.

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