Fantasy Baseball Fix: 2011 Peter Bourjos Projections

It’s Baaaaaack! It’s the “sport” your girlfriend loves to hate. Fantasy Baseball time is here. With opening day only a few months away its time to begin crafting your draft strategy and plotting how you plan to over throw the masses in your league to claim your ultimate prize! Fantasy Champion…. well hopefully you play for some cold hard cash or at least a championship beer mug  …but I digress.

In the spirit of Fantasy Baseball season the Halo Hangout will count down the 12 most fantasy relevant Angels for the upcoming 2011 season. Today we start with the no. 12  player Peter Bourjos. The only reason Bourjos ranks as only the 12th most relevant Angel  is he currently has yet to prove he can consistently hit big league pitching. We actually think Bourjos has the potential to be a big time fanatasy contributor THIS YEAR. With that said, lets take a look at what Fantasy Owners can expect from Bourjos in 2011.

Peter Bourjos should be considered a moderate to low risk sleeper. Barring a disastrous spring he will be the Angels opening day starter in center field. The biggest part of his sleeper status for fantasy owners is predicated on where Peter ends up hitting in the Angels lineup. He will most likely hit somewhere in the bottom third of the order 7th – 9th which will somewhat limit his Runs and RBI potential. For those owners not familiar with Bourjos, his biggest strength (outfield defense) is not relevant in fantasy circles but you can cant on him to steal a good amount of bases with consistent playing time and post solid HR, Runs and RBI totals. Before we give you the Halo Hangout projection lets take a look at what some of Baseball’s projection systems predict for Bourjos in 2011.

• ZiPS: .259/.300/.401, 89 R, 13 HR, 55 RBI, 35 SB, 606 PA
• Fans: .273/.320/.428, 62 R, 12 HR, 68 RBI, 32 SB, 505 PA
• Bill James: .260/.305/.392, 39 R, 6 HR, 26 RBI, 19 SB, 281 PA

Of the three, I think Fans  is probably the closest , with Bill James being way off in terms of plate appearances. A quick analysis of Bourjos’ swing shows an extremely quick bat and legit big league power.I mean most of his 6 home runs (in just 193 plate appearances) last year  traveled into the big boy zone. That said, his swing is still a bit long and his plate discipline is not quite where it needs to be to hit  for a high average or bat higher in the order which would mean  much more runs scored for fantasy owners. If somehow Bourjos moves into the lead-off role then his Run totals and Fantasy value would take a big jump.

The Hangout View:  I see Peter Bourjos posting a fantasy line worthy of a late round pick depending on your league size. He will be a nice source of steals and has the potential to hit 12 -18 home runs this year.  Fantasy owners should expect the following stat line, making Bourjos a nice bargain in the later rounds of most drafts:

• .255/.328/.423, 68 R, 15 HR, 62 RBI, 31 SB, 545 PA