Fantasy Baseball Fix: 2011 Erick Aybar Projections

If you missed the previous entry in the Fantasy Fix Series click below.

• No. 12 Peter Bourjos

Were onto the next one as the  top 12 most Fantasy relevant Angel countdown continues. In the number 11 spot is  none other than Erick Aybar.  Aybar is coming off a disappointing 2010 season. He was inserted into the lead-off role with the departure of Chone Figgins to Seattle and he proceeded to deliver uneven results posting a lead off relevant  line of .279 BA./.336 OBP./ 60 runs scored / and 16 stolen bases in 95 games hitting first. Overall for 2010 Aybar posted the following totals .253 BA./ 5 Hr/ 29 RBI/69 Runs/ 22 steals in 138 games played.

For Aybar 2010 was a let down after his promising 2009 campaign that saw him produce .312 BA/5 Hr / 58 RBI / 70 Runs  and 14 steals while hitting mostly from the ninth spot in the order. So what does 2011 hold for Erick Aybar? Can Fantasy owners count on a bounce back season? Let’s take a look at Aybar’s potential for 2011.

Erick  Aybar’s 2010 season was marked by inconsistency. He appeared to over think his role when in the lead off spot. As we saw above his .279 batting average and.336 on base percentage when leading off weren’t that bad,  but you still got the feeling that Aybar was searching the whole time. Aybar also battled a knee injury from June on which likely contributed to him hitting .208 in the second half last year. For Fantasy owners the Angels failure to sign a true lead-off hitter this off-season likely means Aybar will again get the first crack at setting the table for the Halos in 2011. It is this reason and this reason only why Aybar regains some fantasy relevance heading up to draft day. Also the fact that Aybar is a SS / MI qualifier adds value. This is not a deep area of production in Fantasy circles.

The Hangout View: Owners should expect a season closer to 2009 from Aybar. His high contact rate, (87 % in 2010) bunting ability and speed make him a pretty good bet to hit somewhere in the .280 -.300 range. The Angels lineup assuming Kendry Morales and the other middle of the order bats stay healthy is bound to produce a lot more runs than they did in 2010.  That means Aybar should not only score more runs but he should also be able to improve on his measly 29 RBI’s from last season. Base stealing, which is probably Aybar’s greatest asset to Fantasy owners was the only area where Aybar showed improvement last year (22/30) and I look for that trend to continue in 2011. Overall I think Aybar will hold down the lead-off spot for one more year making him worthy of a mid to late round pick ,especially in leagues that include a MI (middle infielder) position. Aybar should offer nice production in AVG. Runs and Steals.  Look for Aybar to post the following line in 2011.

• .285/.348/.415, 88 R, 4 HR, 52 RBI, 28 SB, 578 PA