Angels Burning Questions Pt. 6 – Can Ervin Santana Have Two Good Years In A Row?

If you missed the first five “Angels Burning Questions”, click below!

Burning question six brings us to the enigma that is Ervin Santana. The Angels starter heads into his seventh big league season at just 28 years old. Halo fans know all too well that Santana has had a good year bad year alternating trajectory seemingly every year since his full time debut in 2005.

2006: Good – 16-8 , 204 innings, 141 K’s , 4.28 ERA , 1.23 WHIP , .241 BAA
2007: Bad – 7 -14 , 150 innings, 126 K’s, 5.76 ERA, 1.55 WHIP, .288 BAA
2008: Great – 16-7, 219 innings, 214 K’s, 3.49 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, .237 BAA
2009: Bad – 8-8, 139 innings, 107 K’s, 5.03 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, .288 BAA
2010: Good – 17-10, 222 innings, 169 K’s, 3.92 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, .259 BAA

So what should Angel fans expect from Ervin in 2011?

Given his recent Jekyll and Hyde streak, revisionist history does not look good for Santana in 2011. He was pretty good last year which would mean that if history holds true we should expect a down year from Santana in 2011. While its important to not that in his off years arm trouble was the major cause for Santana’s drop off, he has yet to string together back to back solid seasons since his inaugural campaign in 2005 followed by the solid season he posted in 2006. Last yer while his velocity didn’t always reached the peak 97-98 mph we consistently saw in his spectacular 2008 season Santana was able to keep his fastball in the 93 -95 MPH range even late into games. What I’m getting at here is that fastball consistency is the key to Ervin Santana being good Santana instead of bad Santana. When his fastball has great life and velocity it sets up his at times devastating slider and also allows him to more effectively mix in his curve ball and change up. When his velocity is down see 2007 and 2009 Santana becomes hittable.

The Hangout View:I fully expect Ervin Santana to buck the good year bad year trend IF he stays healthy. He lost some velocity off his fastball last year and was still able to put together a pretty respectable season which leads me to believe he is starting to learn how to pitch rather than just relying on fastball velocity and a vomit inducing slider to get by. If healthy I expect Santana to improve on his 2010 numbers with a much improved outfield defense. Santana produced a career high 292 fly balls in 2010. If that trend continues in 2011 with Peter Bourjos , Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells tracking them down we can expect more F*** it , lets pitch moments from Santana in 2011.

18 – 10, 205 innings, 178 K’s, 3.66 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, .251 BAA