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2016 Projections: Yunel Escobar
This is part 3 of a series where we project and predict the performance of the Angels in 2016. Next up is third baseman Yunel Escobar. You can find part 1, where we look at Mike Trout, here and part 2 discussing Kole Calhoun here.
2015 season: .314/.374/.415, 9 home runs, 56 RBIs
Career average: .281/.350/.385, 10 home runs, 60 RBIs
2016 projections: .274/.338/.378, 9 home runs, 50 RBIs (Baseball Reference)
Yunel Escobar came to the Angels this offseason in a trade with the Washington Nationals. He moved to third base full time in 2015 after spending his career at shortstop for the Braves, Blue Jays, and Rays. He will take over for David Freese at the hot corner and bat leadoff.
Escobar had a stellar 2015, posting some of the best offensive numbers of his career. He was worth 12 more runs than the average player, and his batting average and on base percentage were excellent. However, you might have noticed that his 2016 projections are significantly worse than the numbers he put up in 2015. His excellent season was buoyed by an unsustainable .347 BABIP. His career BABIP is .306, and I expect his 2016 BABIP to be much closer to that and his overall numbers to come down as a result. He also grounded into a league-high 24 double plays, hampering his value some.
Defensively, Escobar really struggled in his first season at third base, posting a -11 DRS. He posted above average defensive numbers at shortstop throughout his career until 2014, when he plummeted to a -24 DRS with the Rays, but it remains to be seen whether 2015 was an adjustment year for him and he improves in his second season there, or whether he will always be that bad.
Escobar’s value will ultimately be defined by whether or not he can get on base in front of Trout and Albert Pujols. He’s not going to steal bases, and is actually a negative impact on the basepaths, with a -1 Rbaser. He does get on base at an above league average rate, but he’s going to have to rely on Calhoun, Trout, and Pujols to get hits to drive him in.