4 Angels X-factors that can spark a return to contention in 2025

The Angels will tell you that they want to compete in 2025. On paper, they've certainly made upgrades. However, after emerging from a franchise-worst 63-99 record, the Angels' offseason additions aren't nearly enough on their own to vault the team back into contention.

Instead, the Angels will need other factors to break in their favor. They added some nice complementary pieces and improved their depth, but the high-end impact talent is still lacking unless other things break right in the upcoming season.

Fortunately, there are some things internally that can change the Angels' outlook for 2025. These might not be the most realistic scenarios, but the following X-factors are all within the realm of possibility. If they come to fruition, the Halos could find themselves back in contention at last.

1. Mike Trout stays healthy and returns to MVP form

It might seem like forever ago that Mike Trout was the unquestioned best player in baseball. Over the last four seasons, he's averaged just 66.5 games played per season -- with the nadir of his career coming last season where he played just 29 games.

Now entering his age-34 season, the injuries have mounted and Trout can't be counted on to reasonably play the 150+ games he was averaging during his prime. However, the talent is still there. In 2022, the last time he surpassed 100 games in a single season, he crushed 40 long balls while posting a .283/.369/.630 line good for a 176 wRC+ while playing in just 119 games overall.

The Angels might not want to admit that they need Trout to return to MVP form, but given the lack of impact moves they've made this offseason they certainly need him to in order to truly compete. Just like the majority of Trout's career, they've failed to get him the support he needs.

The Halos were 28th in slugging percentage in 2024 while they were without Trout for all but about a month's worth of games, putting up a putrid .369 mark. Jorge Soler will help that number some, but beyond him, the Angels haven't made any real additions that take the burden of correcting this flaw off of Trout's shoulders.

If the Angels can get about 135 games out of Trout at 2022-levels of production they'll be much better off in 2025 than they were last season. That might not be the most likely outcome, but Trout can still perform at those levels if he stays healthy, making him the biggest X-factor on the team.

2. Yusei Kikuchi pitches like he did in Houston

After last year's disaster which saw the Halos' starters rank 28th in the majors in both ERA and FIP, it was clear something needed to be done. That something became Yusei Kikuchi, who signed a three-year $63 million contract to become the no. 1 in the rotation. Given how early he signed, it seems like Kikuchi was their preferred target all along. Given that they haven't added a significant rotation piece since despite a plethora of options, it's clear that they are banking on him in a big way.

2024 was the story of two Kikuchis. The first made 22 starts and pitched 115.2 innings for the Toronto Blue Jays, regularly getting lit up in the process. He posted a 4.75 ERA and 1.34 WHIP and looked more like a fifth starter on a bad team than a true ace.

On July 29th, 2024, he was traded from Toronto to the Houston Astros. Following the trade, he made 10 starts, racked up 60 innings pitched, and posted a 2.70 ERA and 0.93 WHIP. The stark difference in results has been attributed to a change in his pitch mix after arriving in Houston. He dramatically scaled back his curveball usage, threw more sliders even against righties, and embraced his change-up. If that's the Kikuchi that the Angels are getting, his contract will look like a bargain.

Since coming over from Japan, the southpaw has recorded just one season with an ERA under 4. His career mark is 4.57, and even last year despite the dramatic success in Houston he still finished with a 4.05 ERA. Furthermore, he's now entering his age-34 season. Age-related decline could offset any real gains that he made by shuffling up his pitch mix in Houston.

His wide range of outcomes makes him one of the most important factors for the Angels in 2025, as they hope to resurface in the pool of AL contenders.

3. Yoán Moncada staying healthy and realizing his potential

The Angels have hopefully eliminated one nightmare scenario from coming to fruition in 2025 by signing Yoán Moncada to a one-year $5 million deal to play third base. Unfortunately, injuries have been a huge part of Moncada's career, who was once the top prospect in all of baseball.

The Cuban-native didn't have a dramatic defection story like Orlando "El Duque" Hernandez's harrowing sea voyage or Yasiel Puig's deal with smugglers and drug traffickers to leave the island, but that doesn't mean his route to the majors was simple.

While Moncada was once viewed as a generational talent, he had to settle for a one-year deal with the Halos -- something that was almost unfathomable not that long ago. In 2019, it appeared that Moncada had arrived. The then 24-year-old hit 25 homers while posting a 139 wRC+ and 5.2 fWAR. Unfortunately, his follow-up to that was the 2020 season where he hit just .225/.320/.385.

His 2021 season showed that 2020 was just a blip on the radar. He made significant strides in plate discipline improving his walk rate to 13.6%, nearly double the 7.2% he recorded in his 2019 breakout. However, his power dropped as he hit just 14 homers with a .148 ISO, down from the impressive .233 mark he posted in 2019.

Fast forward: Moncada appeared in just 12 games last season. His production has failed to reach his past peaks as he's struggled to stay on the field in recent years. All of this makes it difficult to count on Moncada to both be available and contribute. He may never become the superstar that we were promised a decade ago, but his peaks show a player with the ability to turn in All Star caliber performances.

4. The Angels' young core takes the next step

Despite not having a top-ranked farm system the Angels have managed to build an exciting young core largely through a unique draft and development strategy. Given the lack of high-end investments via free agency this offseason, they will be relying greatly on that young core taking another step forward if they are to compete in 2025.

Players like Zach Neto, Logan O'Hoppe, Nolan Schanuel, Jose Soriano, Jack Kochanowicz, and Reid Detmers will play prominent roles. Prospects like Christian Moore and Caden Dana won't be far behind them.

Despite the potential, there are some pitfalls among this group. Neto will start the season on the IL. Soriano was shut down last year after 20 starts. O'Hoppe put up an .800 OPS in the first half last year but then faded hard down the stretch with a .578 second-half OPS. Schanuel still hasn't posted a slugging percentage above .362.

While it won't be necessary for everyone in the group to become a star, the state of the roster will put pressure on many of these young players to step up and play major roles. If all breaks right, the Angels could find themselves with a much stronger roster than many believe if the young core takes the next step forward in their development. If the group largely falters, the team could be in for a repeat of the 2024 debacle.

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