Angels vs. Blue Jays prediction and odds for Saturday, July 29 (Back the underdog)

The Angels are a great underdog bet vs. Toronto on Saturday.

 Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Reid Detmers (48).
Los Angeles Angels starting pitcher Reid Detmers (48). / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

The Los Angeles Angels are four games out of the wild card in the American League after losing to the Toronto Blue Jays on Friday night, but they still have won eight of their last 10 games. 

Los Angeles will look to bounce back in an afternoon matchup against Toronto on Saturday, and it may have an edge in the starting pitching department in this game. 

Toronto sends Alek Manoah (2-8, 6.10 ERA) to the mound as he looks to turn around what has been a disastrous 2023 season. The Angels counter with Reid Detmers (2-7, 4.38 ERA). While the young lefty hasn’t been great this season, he could be due for some positive regression since his Fielding Independent Pitching sits at 3.60. 

Here’s a look at the odds and my best bet for Saturday’s showdown: 

Angels vs. Blue Jays odds, run line and total

Angels vs. Blue Jays prediction and pick

Since returning from the minor leagues, Manoah has looked slightly better than he did earlier this season, posting a 5.02 ERA in three starts. 

Still, those numbers aren’t anywhere near his stats from last year, and a 5.02 ERA is still not promising enough for me to trust him in this game. 

Los Angeles has been one of the better offenses in all of baseball this season, and the team should force Manoah into an early exit, which will put a lot of pressure on Toronto’s bullpen. The Jays have a 3.72 bullpen ERA this season, but it may not matter if the team is already behind when Manoah exits. 

As for Detmers, this is a great matchup for him. 

The Jays are worse against left-handed pitching (17th in OPS) in the 2023 season, and the young lefty has shown an ability to generate punch outs, striking out 122 batters in 96.2 innings of work. 

Even though he hasn’t had his best stuff this month, moving his ERA north of 4.00 on the season, I am encouraged by Detmers FIP and a few of his other key metrics:

  • 87th percentile in strikeout percentage
  • 82nd percentile in barrel percentage
  • 78th percentile in whiff percentage
  •  64th percentile in expected slugging percentage

With the Angels set as underdogs, I think there is some value in taking them since the Jays are just 6-10 in Manoah’s starts this season. 

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.