LA Angels The Good, The Bad, and The Second Half Preview

STARTING ROTATION:
The Good

There are some reasons for optimism. After a May 24th loss, the Angels were 22-28. Since then, they’ve been one of the best teams in the American League, going 23-18. Not coincidentally, that stretch has seen dramatic changes to the roster. Gone are Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill from the rotation, and Cody Allen isn’t just gone from the bullpen, he’s out of the organization entirely. The three free agents had been unmitigated disasters, and their demotions were addition by subtraction. In their place, rookie Griffin Canning has been extremely impressive, posting a 3-5 record with a 4.43 ERA. In Canning’s 12 starts, he’s only had two bad ones, giving the Angels some badly needed consistency from a rotation that has produced precious few quality starts. Andrew Heaney is also back from the IL, and those two arms should give the rotation a boost.

The Bad

The tragic loss of Tyler Skaggs wasn’t just emotionally devastating, it left a hole in the rotation that the team simply cannot fill. Skaggs was the team workhorse; he, Harvey and Cahill were supposed to help lead the rotation, but Harvey’s still looking for his stuff in minor league rehab, and Cahill has been demoted to mop-up duty in the bullpen, where he’s given up 6 runs in four outings. Felix Peña and rookie Jose Suarez have been soaking up innings, but they’ve yet to be effective. For the moment, Angel Manager Brad Asmus looks like he’s just going with Johnny All-Staff every fifth day, but that’s not sustainable, in large part because the starters aren’t going very deep, and the bullpen’s has it’s own issues.

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The Expectation

Aside from Canning and Heaney, there’s not much else there. While Peña can (and has) pitched better, the 21-year-old Suarez has struggled, having been promoted too quickly because of the injuries and ineffectiveness of other pictures. The Angels can only hope that either Cahill or Harvey rediscover something very soon, or that J.C. Ramirez’s recovers from Tommy John surgery goes better than it has been. (It has not been good.) There’s just nowhere near enough starting pitching to push the Angels past Texas or Oakland at this point.

THE OUTFIELD / DH:
The Good

The absolute strength of the team. The broad shoulders of The Best Player In Baseball continue to carry the bulk of the offensive load, but Mike Trout actually has a bit of help right now. Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton are healthy again after missing most of the first half of the season. Ohtani, in particular, has proven that his bat is no fluke. Thrown into the #3 slot in the lineup behind Trout without a Spring Training, he struggled through most of May, but the Angels started to turn around when Ohtani found his swing: since that May 24th loss, Ohtani is hitting .329/.361/.657, and over his last 39 games, he’s been one of the ten best hitters in baseball. Upton’s return has helped offset Brian Goodwin‘s cooling off. Perhaps most surprisingly, Kole Calhoun has bounced back to have an actual productive half-season. Though he’s hitting just .237, his OBP/SLG splits are at a reasonable .323/.475, dramatic improvements from last season, when it looked like he was completely finished.

The Bad

There’s very little depth out there. With Goodwin ailing, the Angels called up free agent Jarrett Parker, who is 0-12 thus far, and can’t be expected to get much better than that. Goodwin’s the only other centerfielder on the 40-man roster, which means the Angels are going to have to ride Trout, and ride him hard. If the season isn’t going well, Ausmus will have to find people and reasons to give Trout a day off every once in a while.

The Expectation

All four of Trout, Ohtani, Upton, and Calhoun are producing at reasonable levels, and Upton can even be expected to improve. Trout’s the main engine here, of course, but this group is a formidable group of bats. Health permitting, they’ll keep hitting. They will hopefully continue to be the strength of the team.

THE INFIELD:
The Good

David Fletcher is the real deal, the hard contact that was his trademark in the minors has allowed him to blossom as a big leaguer. After a slow start, Luis Rengifo is hitting a macho .328/.408./.493. With the return of Andrelton Simmons from an ankle injury that caused him to miss nearly a quarter of the season, the Angels have some strong stability around the infield. And, hey, everyone, Justin Bour‘s back!… maybe?

The Bad

Tommy La Stella‘s injury not only knocked him out of the All-Star Game, it robbed the Angels of much-needed depth and flexibility. While LaStella wasn’t likely going to be able to keep up the career-best pace he’d set for himself in April and May, it does mean the Angels are suddenly thin in the infield. Zack Cozart was first horrible, then went down with a horrible injury.

Speaking of horrible injuries, Jonathan Lucroy was just coming out of a deep June funk when Jake Marisnick blew him up, and now the Angels’ starting catcher will be gone for an indeterminate amount of time with a broken nose and a severe concussion. This means catching duties go to Dustin Garneau and Kevan Smith. There was no organizational depth at the catching position, and GM Billy Eppler put a lot of eggs in Lucroy’s basket. The Angels were thin at catcher before, and they’re even thinner now. They did trade for minor league catcher Josh Thole from the Dodgers (the Angels also got lefty reliever Adam McCreery from the Dodgers for cash considerations).

Where they didn’t expect to be so thin was at first base, where the decidedly unthin duo of Bour and Albert Pujols were supposed to give the Angels… something. It’s notfun making fun of the great and good Pujols, but it’s even less fun when Bour was supposed to alleviate some of that frustration. Bour has been inexplicably awful, both offensively and defensively, so awful that the Angels had to send him down to AAA Salt Lake to find his swing. .163/.268/.316 through May? Seriously?! Returning from the minors in June, he promptly popped four homers in eight games, but finished the first half on an 0-13 skid.

The Expectation

As with the rest of the roster, there’s little depth to be had. Rengifo’s continued development will be interesting to track. He discovered a batting stroke at AA Mobile last season, and after a slow start in Anaheim, he’s hitting a respectable .260/.333/.379. Fletcher’s development, however, is gold. He boasts the team’s highest line drive percentage (even higher than Mike Trout’s!), and Brad Ausmus needs to be leading him off every single game.

Without Lucroy, the Angels will likely lean on Kevan Smith. Smith can hit a little, but is weak defensively. Garneau is a solid backstop, but has zero offensive skills.  In the short-term, that means the Angels are effectively punting the position unless Smith continues to hit better than he’s ever hit before — which is unlikely.

First base production should improve, if only because Bour can’t possibly be as bad as he’s been. If he returns to anything resembling his career norms, he’ll be effective against right-handed pitching, and that seems more likely than him just being the absolute friggin’ worst for the rest of the season. Pujols is Pujols. .234/.302/.425 is actually a slight improvement over previous seasons, but he’s as likely to hit into a double play as he is to hit a homer.

The injuries to La Stella and Cozart have forced the Angels to call up Matt Thaiss and play him at third base. A natural first baseman, Thaiss has struggled both offensively and defensively in Anaheim. It does seem to speak volumes that they called up Thaiss instead of Taylor Ward, who made the PCL All-Star Team, but has often looked overmatched in his cups of coffee with the Angels. If Rengifo, Simmons, and Fletcher stay healthy, the Angels will play them everyday. If Thaiss starts getting more time, it’ll likely be because the Angels are waving the white flag on the season.

THE BULLPEN
The Good

The Minnesota Twins, in first place in the AL Central with 56 wins, picked up Cody Allen almost immediately after the Angels released him, which should tell you something: Across major league baseball, almost everyone hates their bullpen, because almost everyone’s bullpen is bad. That said, the Angels’ bullpen is… not GOOD, but it’s actually as bad as it feels. What it actually is is wildly inconsistent. Hansel Robles and Ty Buttrey have combined for 85 innings of strong late-inning relief, a 2.66 ERA with strong peripherals between them. Behind them, Cam Bedrosian, Justin Anderson and Noe Ramirez have been inconsistent but still above average. Underneath that trio is a gaggle of arms that has, for the most part, been more problem than solution

The Bad

The problem with “inconsistent but still above average” is that the Angels aren’t getting deep innings from their starters, which forces them to go to three and four relievers every night, which means they’re counting on three or four different inconsistent arms to consistently close games out. That is simply not working. Every night, one of thse relievers is probably going to have a bad night, and one weak link is all that’s needed to blow up a ballgame. It’s a league-wide problem, and the Angels are just one of 25 teams that haven’t been able to cobble together any late game stability.

The Expectation

More of the same, but worse. Without Tyler Skaggs stretching the rotation, it’s the bullpen that will be stretched even thinner than it has been. Keynan Middleton will be back in a week to bolster the pen, but there’s no one else the Angels can count on right now. Brad Ausmus has been using relievers as openers to good effect — Bedrosian in particular seems to work well in that spot, and maybe using him early more often instead of late might work out better for him and the team.

THE SECOND HALF

Much of this may depend on the next three weeks. This is one of the easiest parts of the Angels’ schedule this season: 19 games, 14 home games. Mixed in with six games against the first place Astros and Dodgers are 13 games against the terrible Tigers, Orioles, and Mariners before the July 31st non-waver trade deadline.

Without starting pitching, it’ll be up to the offense to try and win games. The team is still a game under .500. Even a good stretch may leave them on the outside looking in at the WC, so it’s very likely that the Angels will be sellers at the end of July. Teams seem to have expressed interest in Brian Goodwin and Justin Bour, and Eppler’s shown that he’s more than willing to swap relievers for anything with a pulse and a hint of talent.

Prediction

The Angels will be sellers, and we’re going to see a lot of guys starting who probably shouldn’t be starting big league games. The offense will improve, and at some point, the Angels will give Ward and Thaiss a chance to sink or swim. It’s unlikely that Bour and Goodwin last the season with the team.

The Angels have been an 80-win team the past two seasons. This season looks to be more of the same, but the shape of it is different. Unlike the bloated budgets of previous seasons, this is a younger team with Fletcher and Rengifo and Ohtani and Canning, one that’s going to be more financially sustainable in the long run.

In the short run, however, that will be cold comfort. They’ll eek out some respectability, but this is not a playoff team. Not yet.