MLB Free Agency Primer: Breaking Down All 47 Starting Pitchers

For nearly every team, MLB free agency has already begun. Teams have already started planning for the offseason, and as this postseason has taught us, starting pitching rules all.

So why not analyze every single starter that will be available in MLB free agency? 47 names, all broken down for you, the fans. From the Gerrit Cole‘s of the world to the Steven Wright‘s, every single starter available for teams to sign will be included in this piece.

First off, the players have been broken up into tiers, and those are as follows (click on a certain tier to jump directly to that page).

• Tier One: The Aces
  • The best of the best
  • Big money deals
• Tier Two: Frontline Starters
  • #2 options in any rotation
  • Won’t absolutely break the bank
• Tier Three: Mid-Rotation With Upside
  • Solid, reliable veterans
  • Some pitchers with huge upside going into 2020
• Tier Four: Mid-Rotation/Backend Options
  • Mostly veterans on their last legs
  • Still somewhat solid production
• Tier Five: Backend Options/Spring Training Invites
  • Horrible 2019 seasons
  • Extremely cheap, possible value deals
• Tier Six: Injured/Possible Retirements
  • Bounce back candidates galore
  • Veterans who, if they don’t retire, can provide serious production

We’ll be breaking down each pitcher’s stats, give a summary of their season, go over potential risks, then predict each player’s possible contract they’ll sign this winter.

The statistics used are as follows, with the acronym and brief explanation of each.

Win Loss Record (W/N): This isn’t the best indicator for pitcher production, but is kept in due to is being a traditional statistic for starters.

Innings Pitcher (IP): The total number a pitcher threw over the course of the season.

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Earned Run Average (ERA): This is the number of runs that, on average, a pitcher would allow per nine innings. The best surface level statistic used when analyzing pitchers. A 4.47 ERA was the average in the MLB this season.

Strikeouts Per Nine Innings (K/9): Pretty self-explanatory. This is the number of strikeouts a pitcher averages for every nine innings pitched in a season. There was an average of 8.9 strikeouts per game in 2019.

Walks Plus Hitters Per Inning (WHIP): This is the best stat to gauge how much traffic a pitcher allows on the basepaths. Walks and hits are included due pitchers usually being responsible for those, unlike errors. The average WHIP in 2019 was 1.334.

Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP): While ERA is typically a good indicator for a pitcher’s overall performance, FIP can be a good indicator of a pitcher running into good or bad luck. It isn’t needed for every starter, but if there’s a noticeable gap between FIP and ERA in either direction, it could mean some regression to the mean is in order.

Baseball Reference Wins Above Replacement (bWAR): Wins Above Replacement has taken over the MLB’s statheads this decade. To put it simply, WAR is the complete stat for baseball players. While it’s more popular for position players, it encompasses a pitchers’ total production as well. For this article, Baseball Reference’s version of WAR was used.

Without further ado…

The Aces

These are the best of the best pitchers who will have no problem making top dollar this offseason.

Gerrit Cole (29)

W/L: 20-5 IP: 212.1 ERA: 2.50 K/9: 13.8 WHIP: 0.895 FIP: 2.64 bWAR: 6.8

Summary: By now, everyone knows Gerrit Cole and how absolutely dominant he was in 2019. He is likely the American League Cy Young, and has carried the Houston Astros’ rotation so far in the postseason. The last time Cole lost a game was May 22nd. He posted league-high marks in ERA, strikeouts, K/9, and FIP. No player, not just pitcher but player, was as consistently dominant as Gerrit Cole in 2019, and his next paycheck will show that.

Risks: Literally the only risk that comes to mind is the fact that Cole has flourished while pitching for the Astros. They get the best out of any player, so it’s reasonable to think Cole’s numbers may slightly dip if/when he leaves Houston. Other than that, this guy is arguably the best pitcher in the MLB.

Potential contract: This really isn’t as bold as it sounds: Gerrit Cole is going to become the highest paid pitcher of all-time this winter. A 7-year, $250 million deal is not out of the question, and would set both the total value record for a pitcher as well as the AAV for a pitcher.

Hyun-Jin Ryu (33)

W/L: 14-5 IP: 182.2 ERA: 2.32 K/9: 8.0 WHIP: 1.007 FIP: 3.10 bWAR: 5.3

Summary: The story of Hyun-Jin Ryu’s 2019 season is one of two halves. For the first half of the season, Ryu was threatening to post the lowest ERA since the mound was lowered. All in all, it was an elite season from Ryu. He got hit with and accepted the qualifying offer last season, but he’ll be looking for his big contract this offseason. While he may not be on the Cole/Strasburg level of elite, Ryu is an elite ace and will make one fanbase very, very happy for years to come.

Risks: In the second half of 2019, Ryu wore down big time. His ERA shot up to 7.48 in August, but he settled back down prior to the preseason. His workload will need to be managed by whichever team signs him, especially as he goes deeper and deeper into his 30’s.

Potential contract: Despite his age, this is Ryu’s first and last chance to cash out in a big time contract. It’ll be interesting to see if he hits triple digits, but a 4-year, $110 million deal seems fair for both sides.

Stephen Strasburg (31)

*can opt out of remaining four years and $100MM*

W/L: 18-6 IP: 209.0 ERA: 3.32 K/9: 10.8 WHIP: 1.038 FIP: 3.25 bWAR: 6.5

Summary: No one made themselves more money in the postseason than Stephen Strasburg. He was already a top ten pitcher in baseball, but his postseason performance leading up to the World Series has been legendary.

Strasburg has lived up to every ounce of hype he had as a prospect, and he went from a maybe to a sure thing in terms of opting out of the rest of his contract with the Nationals. While he could rework a deal to stay in D.C, he’d be the second most desired pitcher behind Gerrit Cole if he were to hit the open market.

Risks: This is a reach, as Strasburg has been a model of consistency throughout his career in the majors. However, he is now on the wrong side of 30. That doesn’t mean much considering how high of a level he has pitched at, but it’s worth noting for any team in pursuit of the Nationals’ ace.

Potential contract: If he hits the open market, Strasburg could very easily play the leverage card and walk away with a 5-year, $150 million deal, and he would be worth every penny.

Zack Wheeler (30)

W/L: 11-8 IP: 195.1 ERA: 3.96 K/9: 9.0 WHIP: 1.259 FIP: 3.48 bWAR: 4.1

Summary: Including him in the “aces” section of this post may be debatable, but after posting two straight 3.5+ WAR seasons, Zack Wheeler is ready to finally hit free agency rather than just be in trade rumors. He sits below that first tier of aces, but he is one player who is bound to have 20+ teams bidding for his services. Once teams miss out on the Cole/Strasburg/Ryu types, they’ll refocus their crosshair on Wheeler, and he’ll be a huge beneficiary of playing the waiting game.

Risks: Wheeler’s hit rate went up quite a bit compared to 2018, which needs to be monitored. Besides that though, Wheeler has stayed healthy and is a fairly simple pitcher to get a read on.

Potential contract: Wheeler will want #1 pitcher money, and he’ll likely get that. Five years, $130 million would be the right kind of money for both a team to spend and Wheeler to sign on the dotted line for.

Frontline Starters

This is the group of pitchers who are good enough to lead a rotation, but lack the elite traits of the tier one pitchers.

Madison Bumgarner (30)

W/L: 9-9 IP: 207.2 ERA: 3.90 K/9: 8.8 WHIP: 1.127 FIP: 3.90 bWAR: 2.8

Summary: Bumgarner’s entire season was the quietest season in the history of quiet seasons. It seems the only time he made headlines was following his argument with Max Muncy regarding a certain ocean-bound homer.

However, despite the lack of attention, MadBum showed he still has a lot of pitching left in the tank. Both his strikeout and walk numbers improved to be better than his career averages. After two seasons of injury, he is right there with the legitimate front-end starters in free agency. Maybe he’s a knock below Cole, Ryu, and Strasburg (option), but Bumgarner will make whoever signs him a winner.

Risks: Um…this one honestly seems pretty safe. There’s risk with any potential signing, but Bumgarner isn’t a pitcher who relies on velocity, which can be concerning at his age. His home run rate rising ever so slightly could be pointed at, but with the baseball flying the way it has been that’s to be expected. The mileage on his arm is the one real concern. He is a rock solid frontline starter right now, and I don’t see him declining any lower than that of a high-end mid-rotation piece.

Potential contract: Our Giants partner site predicted a team offering Bumgarner a 4-year, $80 million contract with a 2024 team option. I’m doing that as a GM and plugging him into the front of my rotation for the remainder of his career.

Yu Darvish (33)

*can opt out of the remaining four years and $81MM*

W/L: 6-8 IP: 178.2 ERA: 3.98 K/9: 11.5 WHIP: 1.097 FIP: 4.18 bWAR: 3.0

Summary: In a bounce back season for Darvish, he was able to regain his form that made the Cubs willing to offer him the 6-year, $126 million contract he can now opt out of. The story on Darvish this year was his unique ability to learn and use new pitches on the fly. Darvish was pivotal for the Cubs rotation this season, and if he decides to bet on himself and enter free agency, he could be a huge asset to any contending team.

Risks: There’s the possibility of his skill declining with age, as always. At 33, it’d be hard for teams to talk themselves into big money for the next 3-4 years.

Potential contract: Given there’s still $81 million remaining over the next four seasons, it seems very unlikely Darvish would opt-out of this deal. If he does, it goes without saying it’ll be for more than the remainder of his deal with the Cubs.

Cole Hamels (36)

W/L: 7-7 IP: 141.2 ERA: 3.81 K/9: 9.1 WHIP: 1.391 FIP: 4.09 bWAR: 3.0

Summary: It was another impressive season for Hamels, as he continues to age like fine wine. He showed he still belongs in the MLB and can be a rock solid starter for any team. He did miss time towards the end of the season with shoulder fatigue, but if managed better throughout the season it could be an avoidable issue going forward.

Risks: Besides the shoulder fatigue, Hamels walked batters at a higher rate than ever in 2019. He remained effective, but if his control continues to diminish, his next contract could very well be his last.

Potential contract: Hamels will probably aim for a multi-year deal this offseason with an AAV anywhere between $8-13 dollars.

Dallas Keuchel (32)

W/L: 8-8 IP: 112.2 ERA: 3.75 K/9: 7.3 WHIP: 1.367 FIP: 4.72 bWAR: 2.0

Summary: What a season for Dallas Kuechel. After being shorted in free agency last year, he joined the Atlanta Braves late into the season and was well worth the money in 2019. His command remains one of the best in the game. He finished strong, with a 2.55 ERA over his final nine starts and a solid postseason run as well.

Risks: The main risk with Keuchel is the same as it was last year. His strikeouts aren’t overwhelming and he relies heavily on his defense to play well in order to be successful. Aside from that, he is another year older and that will surely play into his free agency again.

Potential contract: Kuechel should receive the multi-year deal he has waited so long for. The salary range could fluctuate, but should land somewhere between $18-24 million on a 2-3 year deal.

Jake Odorizzi (30)

W/L: 15-7 IP: 159.0 ERA: 3.51 K/9: 10.1 WHIP: 1.208 FIP: 3.36 bWAR: 3.6

Summary: It was a nice little bounce back season for Jake Odorizzi this year. It came at the perfect time as well, as Odorizzi is finally getting the chance to hit the open market. An All Star season will make him an intriguing option for teams who miss out on the upper-tier of free agent starting pitchers.

Risks: Nothing really pops out as a risk for Odorizzi. He remained healthy in 2019 and flourished. The one talking point that may have some significance is that 10 of his 30 starts came against the putrid offenses of Kansas City, Detroit, and Chicago White Sox. His ERA against teams with winning records sat at 4.04, while his ERA against losing teams was a full point lower.

Potential contract: Odorizzi would be smart to wait out the market for the aces on the market to sign. After that, a team may get desperate enough to overpay Odorizzi on a 3-4 year deal.

Julio Teheran (29)

*$12MM club option with a $1MM buyout*

W/L: 10-11 IP: 174.2 ERA: 3.81 K/9: 8.3 WHIP: 1.323 FIP: 4.66 bWAR: 2.4

Summary: It was another exceptional season from Julio Teheran. Since his below-average 2017 season, he has turned in back-to-back sub-4.00 ERA campaigns. He has been a reliable arm for the Braves since his debut, and will be one of the big names once the first tier of aces are off the table. Still only 28, he has years left of his prime as well.

Risks: Age is good, ERA is good, and no significant injuries. The only underlying problem with Teheran’s game is how his FIP relates to his ERA. Over the past two seasons, he has posted a 3.88 ERA but a 4.75 FIP. That leaves some room for possible regression if a spotty defense is placed behind Teheran, but is not anything overly concerning.

Potential contract: At just 28, Teheran could go for a short term or long term deal depending on what he wants. A six-year, $120 million deal with an opt-out after two or three years makes sense financially for a team while also giving Teheran a chance for another big contract in a few years if he desires it.

Mid-Rotation With Upside

These pitchers are the type of arms fanbases should be happy with as their second/third starter. Not a ton of risk, and some of these players have shown flashes of upside that could lead to breakout seasons.

Brett Anderson (32)

W/L: 13-9 IP: 176.0 ERA: 3.89 K/9: 4.6 WHIP: 1.307 FIP: 4.57 bWAR: 2.7

Summary: Brett Anderson spent his 2019 season as one of the most consistent pitchers on the Oakland A’s. He wasn’t remarkably great, but was a reliable pitcher. The team knew what they were getting every time Anderson took the mound: relatively average pitching that’ll take you deep enough into the game to not overwork your bullpen. Only 4 of Anderson’s 31 starts didn’t make it through at least five innings.

Unlike most Oakland A’s starters, Anderson also had superior numbers on the road than when pitching in The Coliseum. That’s a positive sign for his free agency, as he’s proven he can be successful in other ballparks.

Risks: At 32-years old, there’s no way of telling if this is Anderson’s comeback season or if it’s simply a blip on the radar. This could be the beginning of a late resurgence in his career or simply a set up for a bad contract in free agency.

Potential contract: Anderson will probably look for multiple years of security at an average value. A 2-year, $10-15 million deal sounds about fair for both a team in need of backend rotation help and Anderson.

Wade Miley (33)

W/L: 14-6 IP: 167.1 ERA: 3.98 K/9: 7.5 WHIP: 1.345 FIP: 4.51 bWAR: 2.0

Summary: Being teammates with Gerrit Cole, Zack Greinke, and Justin Verlander means attention will be rare for you. However, Wade Miley had a very successful season in Houston despite not being covered as frequently as his Cy Young rotation mates. He posted impressive numbers across the board, and is fully able to be a rock solid mid-rotation arm for whichever team signs him this winter, even after a lackluster beginning to his postseason.

Risks: Miley struggled towards the end of the season, and hasn’t topped 200 innings since 2014. He isn’t a starter that can get you 7 innings every start, but can be extremely effective if he’s used properly.

Potential contract: Miley will look to cash out before he hits the wrong side of 35, so a multi-year deal should be his highest priority. $10-12 million a year sounds about right for an AAV.

Michael Pineda (30)

W/L: 11-5 IP: 146.0 ERA: 4.01 K/9: 8.6 WHIP: 1.158 FIP: 4.02 bWAR: 2.4

Summary: It was a very impressive season for Michael Pineda, as he was serviceable for the Twins throughout 2019. However, that all ended when he was suspended for 60 games for violating the MLB’s performance enhancing drugs rules. He was disqualified from the playoffs, where the Twins surely could have used his help as they fell to the Yankees. Nevertheless, Pineda is just 30 years old and could be in line for a solid payday.

Risks: As is always the case with players caught using performance enhancing drugs, there’s worry about whether or not they’ll be the same player after they serve their suspension and (assumedly) are clean.

Potential contract: This is a tough one given his suspension, but a 2-3 year with $10 million annually would be both a team-friendly deal and a big enough payday for Pineda.

Jose Quintana (31)

*$11.5MM club option with a $1MM buyout*

W/L: 13-9 IP: 171.0 ERA: 4.68 K/9: 8.0 WHIP: 1.386 FIP: 3.80 bWAR: 0.7

Summary: This is a player who needs more context. While his ERA at the end of the season doesn’t look great, that is in large part to the final five starts of Jose Quintana’s season. Before his awful month of September, he owned a 3.90 ERA on the year. It was a successful season for Quintana, September aside, and we’ll see whether the salary strapped Cubs decide to spend their money elsewhere. It’s also worth noting the difference between his ERA and FIP could mean some positive regression is in line.

Risks: Other than the end of his 2019 season, there aren’t any significant risks with Quintana. His age is typically where pitchers start to decline, so teams will have to keep that in mind.

Potential contract: I genuinely do not expect Quintana to reach free agency. He has been a rock solid mid-rotation piece for the Cubs, and they’d be silly to let him walk. If he does find free agency though, a 4-5 year deal worth $15 million annually would be a great deal for any team.

Michael Wacha (28)

W/L: 6-7 IP: 126.2 ERA: 4.76 K/9: 7.4 WHIP: 1.563 FIP: 5.61 bWAR: 0.2

Summary: 2019 was not the season Michael Wacha was hoping for prior to hitting free agency this offseason. Long gone are the days of 2013, when Wacha gave us one of the most dynamic postseason stretches on the mound of all time. Now, Wacha is simply a backend rotation piece at his worst and a mid-rotation arm at his best. However, he is still young, and has room for improvement.

Risks: The last time Wacha posted a season with at least 20 starts and a sub-4.00 ERA was 2015 so…enough said. His brief 2018 season was encouraging, and Wacha showed glimpses of that same talent at times in 2019, but has not been able to put it all together for an entire season in nearly half a decade.

Potential contract: This is honestly a tough one. A three-year, $35 million deal would be something fans could get excited about though.

Backend Options/Spring Training Invites

Most of these starters were either below average or downright awful, and only a few are worth more than a Spring Training invite.

Trevor Cahill (32)

W/L: 4-9 IP: 102.1 ERA: 5.98 K/9: 7.1 WHIP: 1.466 FIP: 6.13 bWAR: -0.3

Summary: In what was supposed to be the signing of a mid-rotation starter, the Angels instead ended up with an awful starter turned awful reliever. Cahill was remarkably consistent at struggling mightily throughout the entire season, and showed his 2018 season in Oakland was a total fluke. The home/road splits pointed towards Cahill being a risky option for the Angels, and he was a huge letdown in 2019.

Risks: The risk of signing a very bad pitcher who often times seems lost on the mound.

Potential contract: In all honesty, someone will give Cahill a minor league contract with a Spring Training invite. His performance this season makes it hard to believe any team will give him anything more lucrative than that. Any potential suitors better be playing in the most pitcher friendly ballparks in the MLB.

Jhoulys Chacin (32)

W/L: 0-2 IP: 103.1 ERA: 6.01 K/9: 8.8 WHIP: 1.558 FIP: 5.88 bWAR: -0.8

Summary: Whether it was in Milwaukee or Boston, Jhoulys Chacin was abysmal in 2019. He was supposed to be the focal point of Milwaukee’s rotation, but just could not contain opposing offenses. He was traded to the Red Sox, where he had some success when the team opted to use him as a reliever.

Risks: The obvious risk here is that Chacin can’t bounce back from a poor all-around season. His days as a starter seem numbered, and both his H/9 and HR/9 were career worst numbers.

Potential contract: A very low-cost, deal, if that. Maybe even just a minor league contract with a Spring Training invite.

Matt Harvey (31)

W/L: 3-5 IP: 59.2 ERA: 7.09 K/9: 5.9 WHIP: 1.542 FIP: 6.35 bWAR: -0.7

Summary: Matt Harvey regained his velocity this season with the Angels. Then he lost it again, then regained it again. Throughout all of this though, he was awful on the mound. He was designated for assignment midway through July, and picked up by the Oakland A’s for some minor league depth. He was being geared towards a relief role, but was left off the 40-man roster.

Risks: Injuries, age, off field, poor performance. A lot of risks for any team considering signing Harvey this offseason.

Potential contract: A minor league contract with an invite to Spring Training.

Derek Holland (33)

W/L: 2-5 IP: 84.1 ERA: 6.08 K/9: 8.8 WHIP: 1.506 FIP: 6.10 bWAR: -1.2

Summary: After struggling at the start of the season with the San Francisco Giants, Holland was traded to the Chicago Cubs where he somehow got worse. His walk rate, home run rate, and ERA were career worsts during his time in Chicago, and it seems Holland’s career may be heading towards its final days after a very successful 2018 season.

Risks: Derek Holland being 2019 Derek Holland instead of the 2018 version.

Potential contract: Minor league contract with a Spring Training invite.

Wade LeBlanc (35)

*$5MM club option with a $450K buyout*

W/L: 6-7 IP: 121.1 ERA: 5.71 K/9: 6.8 WHIP: 1.451 FIP: 5.49 bWAR: 0.3

Summary: After seeing time as both a starter and reliever in 2019, Wade LeBlanc struggled doing both. That being said, he was much better out of the bullpen for the Mariners and could see a move to the bullpen with whatever team he lands with. However, he could make one final push to start in 2020.

Risks: Using LeBlanc as a starter is extremely risky given how poor his numbers were in that role in 2019. At 35-years old, his age is a risk as well. However, that could be potentially offset if he accepts a move to a long man out of the bullpen.

Potential contract: Low-end one-year deal, possibly a minor league deal with a Spring Training invite.

Shelby Miller (29)

W/L: 1-3 IP: 44.0 ERA: 8.59 K/9: 6.1 WHIP: 1.977 FIP: 6.40 bWAR: -0.9

Summary: The pitcher Shelby Miller was when he was the epicenter of a blockbuster deal in 2015 is long, long gone. One could make the argument that Miller was the worst pitcher in the big leagues before being designated for assignment last season. If you were to take one good thing away from Miller’s 2019 season, it’s that he is another year removed from his Tommy John operation and is still under 30.

Risks: Signing one of the worst pitchers in the MLB last season.

Potential contract: A minor league contract.

Martin Perez (29)

*$7MM club option with a $500K buyout*

W/L: 10-7 IP: 165.1 ERA: 5.12 K/9: 7.3 WHIP: 1.518 FIP: 4.66 bWAR: 0.2

Summary: It doesn’t appear that the Minnesota Twins will pick up Martin Perez’s option after he fell apart towards the end of the season. He’s an interesting case, as his first half was that of a capable mid-rotation pitcher. However, things completely derailed and now Perez will find himself as a 29-year old free agent. However, there’s still reason to be optimistic, as Perez posted his highest strikeout rate of his career while also improving on his hit rate.

Risks: The main risk is that Perez’s second half was truthful in who he is as a pitcher at this point in his career. Signing him to any amount of money based off his solid first two months of 2019 would be incredibly risky for a team to do.

Potential contract: A 1-2 year deal worth about $2-3 million yearly.

Injured Pitchers/Possible Retirements

Pitchers who spent the majority of 2019 injured or could very well just retire rather than pitch in 2020. Some of these have legitimate upside to have comeback seasons in 2020.

Clay Buchholz (35)

W/L: 2-5 IP: 59.0 ERA: 6.56 K/9: 5.9 WHIP: 1.412 FIP: 5.62 bWAR: -0.3

Summary: Buchholz’s season was largely derailed by a shoulder strain. However, he was able to come back in late August. This was a good sign for Buchholz as he was able to show he had regained his health before his free agency. He even showed some potential as his ERA after his return was much better than prior to his time on the IL. So, at 35-years old, Buchholz may be able to turn a solid last month of pitching into one more deal somewhere in free agency.

Risks: Shoulder injuries are always scary, even if the initial return was impressive by Buchholz. His age, combined with the injury, will surely keep some teams away. He’s made a plethora of trips to the DL and now the IL in his career, and signing him brings that risk.

Potential contract: If Buchholz plays one more year, it’ll be a low-cost deal. He isn’t going to break the bank for anybody, and it’d be surprising to see him receive any multi-year deals.

Gio Gonzalez (34)

W/L: 3-2 IP: 87.1 ERA: 3.50 K/9: 8.0 WHIP: 1.294 FIP: 4.04 bWAR: 1.7

Summary: In what was an injury-riddled season, Gio Gonzalez was arguably the best starter for the Brewers at times. He missed a large amount of time dealing with a dead arm issue, which translated to shoulder tightness later in the season.

Risks: The obvious: injuries marred Gonzalez’s 2019 season, and will be a major discussion point for any team targeting the two-time All Star.

Potential contract: One-year contract with a possible option for a second season.

Jeremy Hellickson (33)

W/L: 2-3 IP: 39.0 ERA: 6.23 K/9: 6.9 WHIP: 1.718 FIP: 6.29 bWAR: -0.3

Summary: Another starter whose season was clouded by a long stint on the IL, Hellickson eventually returned to the Nationals as a long-man out of their bullpen. His shoulder tendinitis was a long rehab, and he was not a significant part of the Nationals’ plan down the road.

Risks: The shoulder injury is an obvious concern, and his age doesn’t point exactly bring confidence either. While relievers tend to have an extended life, his career as a starter is definitely in question.

Potential contract: Low-cost, one-year deal.

Felix Hernandez (34)

W/L: 1-8 IP: 71.2 ERA: 6.40 K/9: 7.2 WHIP: 1.535 FIP: 6.00 bWAR: -0.7

Summary: It was an emotional final season for Felix Hernandez. All year long, it was obvious this would be his final campaign as a Seattle Mariner. However, while the sentimentality of his season was elite, his performance was not. His stuff just is not what it used to be, and he posted a career-worst in ERA this year. It is obvious his best years are far behind him, but he should still be able to find a job somewhere. Whether that is as a starter or reliever is up in the air, but  King Felix will find somewhere to land.

Risks: Age, decline in skill, and a career-low in innings pitched in 2019 due to a shoulder injury, which is obviously a big concern.

Potential contract: One-year, low-end deal.

Rich Hill (40)

W/L: 4-1 IP: 58.2 ERA: 2.45 K/9: 11.0 WHIP: 1.125 FIP: 4.10 bWAR: 1.4

Summary: When Rich Hill pitched in 2019, he was very effective. However, he wasn’t often available due to a strain in his throwing arm. His offspeed pitches are still elite, and he showed he was fully healthy at the end of 2019 in both the regular season and the playoffs.

Risks: The injury wouldn’t be overly concerning if it wasn’t combined with Hill’s age. He’ll be 40 to start the 2020 season, and hasn’t topped 140 innings since George W. Bush was president. His FIP also indicates he was a beneficiary of some good luck on the mound this year.

Potential contract: A one-year deal worth around $3-5 million dollars

Matt Moore (31)

W/L: 0-0 IP: 10.0 ERA: 0.00 K/9: 8.1 WHIP: 0.400 FIP: 1.71 bWAR: 0.7

Summary: Matt Moore’s 2019 season lasted ten innings before being shut down for the season after a knee operation. The surgery was only expected to sideline him for 6-8 weeks, but that obviously changed post-op. Moore is an interesting free agent, as he pitched well in what was obviously a small sample size. He has the makings of a backend-rotation piece, and could potentially be even better if he rebounds from his knee surgery well.

Risks: The knee is a clear factor. On top of that, Moore’s ERA rose in two consecutive seasons prior to 2019, and he hasn’t had a sub-4.00 ERA since 2014.

Potential contract: Moore will get a contract somewhere. A one-year deal with a team option for 2021 would make a lot of sense, as it’d give the team more incentive to sign the former All Star after his knee injury.

Clayton Richard (36)

W/L: 1-5 IP: 45.1 ERA: 5.96 K/9: 4.4 WHIP: 1.566 FIP: 6.28 bWAR: -0.1

Summary: Clayton Richard’s season started late as he rehabbed from a knee injury, and ended early after he suffered a rib/lat injury in July and was later released. His numbers don’t exactly impress, either. However, he had seemingly found his stride towards the end of the season, and he had a 3.86 ERA in his final three starts of the season before being released by Toronto.

Risks: The risk here is that Clayton Richard is a washed up pitcher, and that his injury/release only made matters worse.

Potential contract: As long as he doesn’t retire, Richard should get a minor league contract somewhere with an invite to Spring Training.

Tyson Ross (33)

W/L: 1-5 IP: 35.1 ERA: 6.11 K/9: 6.4 WHIP: 1.670 FIP: 5.99 bWAR: -0.1

Summary: It was a season to forget for Tyson Ross after signing on with the Detroit Tigers for a one-year deal. His ERA skyrocketed after a solid 2018 season due to ulnar neuritis in his throwing arm. His season ended after only seven appearances, and his future in the MLB is cloudy at best.

Risks: Ulnar neuritis, while someone can come back from it, is no joke. Some return to the same level as before the injury, but some do not. It is also worth noting that Ross has a long relationship with the injured list in his career.

Potential contract: Someone will take a chance on Ross. His 2018 season was extremely impressive, and it’s enough for someone to take a cheap chance on a career 4.04 ERA. A one-year deal with a team option may be the best Ross gets this winter.

Ervin Santana (37)

W/L: 0-2 IP: 13.1 ERA: 9.45 K/9: 3.4 WHIP: 1.875 FIP: 9.66 bWAR: -0.4

Summary: A lost season for Ervin Santana, as he made only three starts in the big leagues. After two solid seasons in 2017 and 2018, Santana seems to have fallen off a cliff. With his lackluster production, it’s up in the air whether Santana will get another chance in the league it not.

Risks: Santana being unable to bounce back to his 2017/2018 form.

Potential contract: If Santana decides to pitch again in 2020, the only offer he’ll get is that if a minor league contract.

Edinson Volquez (36)

W/L: 0-1 IP: 16.0 ERA: 6.75 K/9: 5.6 WHIP: 2.000 FIP: 6.65 bWAR: 0.1

Summary: A couple of months ago, Edinson Volquez seemed like a sure bet to retire after coming into 2019 with little to no expectations. However, after being able to return from an elbow injury (albeit with poor results), he is now considering returning for one final season.

While he has stated he would want to return to the Texas Rangers in 2020 to help mold the younger players, he’ll still be a free agent and other teams have young players to mold as well. Basically, it wouldn’t be completely out of the ordinary if Volquez were to pitch for another team in 2020.

Risks: Volquez’s return from an elbow injury was encouraging, but his age and his stats upon the return were not. Relying on him for any sort of high impact pitching in 2020 would be a mistake.

Potential contract: $1-2 million dollars for 2020.

Adam Wainwright (38)

W/L: 14-10 IP: 171.2 ERA: 4.19 K/9: 8.0 WHIP: 1.427 FIP: 4.36 bWAR: 2.1

Summary: Another pitcher who could possibly retire this offseason, Adam Wainwright showed he’s still got it in 2019. He posted a strikeout rate better than his career norm, and was electric during the Cardinals’ postseason run. If he does hang up his cleats, Wainwright will have a case for the Hall of Fame. However, 2019 showed us that he still has enough talent to continue building on that resume.

Risks: Adam Wainwright came back from a handful of injuries to pitch his way to a 4.19 ERA in 2019. If he pitches again in 2020, you know what you’re getting.

Potential contract: $1-2 million dollars for 2020.

Alex Wood (29)

W/L: 1-3 IP: 35.2 ERA: 5.80 K/9: 7.6 WHIP: 1.402 FIP: 6.38 bWAR: -0.2

Summary: After pitching through a back injury for seven starts, Alex Woods’ season ended way too early. He enjoyed many successful years with the Dodgers, and that pitcher is still in there. The only question with Woods is whether he can get back to his old self after rehabbing through the back injury. If he does, a team could wind up with a huge steal in the southpaw.

Risks: The back injury that ended his 2019 season in August. Furthermore, Wood gave up an extremely alarming amount of home runs (11 in seven starts) and while that could be due to his back injury, is something worth monitoring wherever he does wind up signing.

Potential contract: The injury-riddled 2019 season won’t help Woods’ case, and he may have to take a one-year “prove it” deal because of it.

Steven Wright (35)

W/L: 0-1 IP: 6.1 ERA: 8.53 K/9: 7.1 WHIP: 2.368 FIP: 10.16 bWAR: -0.1

Summary: After being released by the Red Sox, Steven Wright might just call it a career. The knuckleballer has dealt with a plethora of injuries and suspensions the past two seasons, and now finds himself as a free agent.

Risks:  Wright was dynamic when healthy, but as his age it’s unlikely he is able to overcome the latest elbow injury to provide valuable innings for any MLB club.

Potential contract: Considering the Red Sox would have only owed Wright $1.5 million in arbitration, it’s hard to imagine him making anything more than the league minimum if a team signs Wright for 2020.