Albert Pujols chase for 700 HR
Probability with 2020 season: 22%
Probability, no 2020 season: 5%
Albert Pujols has hit 656 career home runs, 211 of which came with the Angels over the past eight seasons. At 40-years-old, the days of him hitting 40 home runs each season are long gone, but he has maintained an ability to connect on 20+ long balls over the past several seasons. He needs 44 more home runs over the next two years, before his contract runs up, to reach the magical 700 number, a total that only three players have reached in baseball history (Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, and Babe Ruth).
If no 2020 season is played, it seems impossible to believe Pujols would reach 700 home runs during the final year of his contract in Anaheim. But even if he signed a one-year deal to play DH somewhere and continue his chase of history, at that point, he would be 43-years-old. Remember, Szymborki’s probabilities consider a player, like Pujols, extending their career an extra season to reach a major milestone.
Pujols has amassed over 3,000 hits, his batting average sits at a perfect .300 mark for his career, and his collection of Silver Slugger, Gold Gloves, and MVP awards will make him a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, whether he hits 700 home runs or not. However, a lost season severely impacts his chances of putting his name next to Babe Ruth in the record books, a feat he surely would like to accomplish.