Should the Angels extend Andrelton Simmons?

Why The Angels should sign Andrelton Simmons to a long-term extension

As previously noted, the Angels have received exceptional value from the trade with Atlanta, seeing Simmons accrue 14.8 fWAR during his time in Anaheim. During that time, he’s managed to hit .280/.327/.396 with 36 home runs, 240 RBI, and a wRC+ of 97, putting him just below league average with the bat.

While his production with the bat has been less than favorable, it hasn’t been outright horrible either. A lot of that value is driven down by a poor power showing at the plate, where he owns an ISO of .116 with the Angels. However, Simmons makes up with that by having the exceptional ability to make contact, as evidenced by his MLB-best strikeout rate of 8.6% since 2016. Also, it is important to note that while his wRC+ of 97 is low, it had increased yearly from 2014 to 2018, before dipping against during an injury-plagued 2019 season.

With all things considered, the value Andrelton Simmons brings to the Angels is and never will be measured with his bat. Rather, Simmons makes his presence felt on the defensive side of the diamond, where is regarded as the best fielding shortstop in baseball. In 4542.2 innings of work at short for the Halos, Simmons has been worth 95 defensive runs saves, a 17.7 UZR/150, and made an incredible 361 plays out-of-zone. The next closest shortstop in the first two categories are Nick Ahmed in DRS (67), Francisco Lindor in UZR/150 (10.9), and he is seventh in OOZ during that span. His DEF rating of 82.3 best Lindor by 13.1 points (69.2).

In terms of potential replacements within the system, the Angels have two highly-rated prospects in Kyren Paris (5th rated) and Arol Vera (10th). However, both are still in Rookie ball and their ETAs are 2023 and 2024 respectively. Neither is close to replacing Simmons in 2021.

Why the Angels should not extend Andrelton Simmons

Most of that value was accrued during the first three seasons of the deal and much of that was gained on the defensive side of the field. An exceptional fielder, Simmons is somewhat of flashback to the days of guys like Omar Vizquel and Ozzie Smith, where the glove-first shortstop was regarded with a value despite what he brought to the team with the bat.

However, there are a few red flags that the Angels will want to be wary of in regards to both.

From a fielding standpoint, while Simmons is still stellar with the glove, 2019 was definitely a slip in that department. His 13.8 UZR/150 and his 12 defensive runs saved were both career-lows, and his 0.5 defensive runs above average barely ranked higher than the mid-range. A lot of that had to do with the ankle injuries he dealt with throughout the year and limited him to just 102 games. With that said, ankle injuries to a shortstop turning 30-years-old are hard to look past.

That all lead back to his offensive numbers. While his value is cast mostly with his glove, if that continues to dip, it will exasperate the perception of his hitting skills. His lack of power is tremendously difficult to overlook, especially during the offensive explosion being seen throughout the league. Simmons’ ISO is 26th lowest among qualifying hitters since 2016 and his hard-hit rate of 30.9% is the 57th lowest among qualifying hitters since 2016. Meanwhile, his soft hit rate of 20.6% is the 43rd highest among qualifying hitters since 2016.

If his production continues to slide, the Angels may be forced to look for either a cheaper solution or possibly look to other free agents for alternatives. In the case of the former, the team does have David Fletcher on the MLB roster. A former shortstop in his own right and a solid fielder, the more affordable Fletcher would be a similar defense-first player, but may not provide much on offense. That could open up space for Luis Rengifo to take over the second base duties.

In terms of potential replacements on the market next winter, both Didi Gregorius and Marcus Semien could be options, and both present offensive upgrades while providing solid defensive productivity. However, neither will represent any cost savings to the Halos either.

Final Word: The Angels should not extend Andrelton Simmons

The long and short of it is that the Angels may be best served to see how Simmons looks through the first couple of months of 2020, whenever that may be. That will give the team a time to determine how well his mobility has improved after the ankle injuries and how that affects his performance at the plate.

From a replacement standpoint, the team lacks any true internal options that benefit them, at least in the immediate term, outside of potentially shifting costs. Likewise, the upgrade options on the open market next winter will likely cost more than the $15 million the Angels are paying to Simmons in 2020.

Of course, by going with an internal option like David Fletcher, who won’t be arbitration-eligible until after the 2022 season, the team could redistribute their funds to where they need it most, on the mound. Fletcher was worth 3.4 wins above replacement in 2019 and gave the Angels $27.4 million worth of value against that fWAR. That represents a decent trade-off against his league-minimum salary over the next two seasons.

The ability to chase arms like Robbie Ray, Trevor Bauer, Marcus Stroman, James Paxton, and more should not be lost in this discussion. While the team will lose a little defensively by letting Simmons move on, they gain that back by being able to potentially reel in a top-of-the-rotation starter. As a team with a recent history of injuries, non-production, or striking out on free agent pursuits, having a little extra cash around to throw at a starter is huge.

Andrelton Simmons has been a great addition by the Angels over the years, and they certainly received their share of value from that trade, but knowing when to move on is an unfortunate side effect of today’s game. That will be especially true as we enter an unknown winter with clubs having financial concerns stemming from the early season shutdown.

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It’ll be unfortunate, but allowing Simmons to become a free agent or potentially trading him mid-season if the team falls out of contention, may prove fruitful to the potential long-term future of the Angels.