Is Angels’ Dylan Bundy an American League Cy Young candidate?

Through his first three starts in an Angels uniform, Dylan Bundy is pitching like staff ace and has been one of the best pitchers in baseball in 2020.

When the Los Angeles Angels acquired Dylan Bundy from the Baltimore Orioles over the winter, they were hoping a change of scenery would make him a rebound candidate. What they got instead has been a staff ace.

That was in full view on Thursday, when Bundy spun a complete game against the Mariners. In the gem, he allowed just four hits and one run, while striking out 10 and walking none. In case you missed it, here is a quick video recap of Bundy’s stellar outing, courtesy of MLB.com.

To say that Bundy has been a pleasant surprise for the Angels would be an understatement. Through three starts, he is the only starter to complete six innings on more than one occasion, having done so in each of his three starts. For a Halos team that has been forced into their bullpen too often in 2020, the right-hander’s ability to get deeper into games has been invaluable.

However, Bundy’s performance to date has been more than just eating innings. In fact, he’s been among the top pitchers in the game thus far.

According to FanGraphs, Dylan Bundy is tied for 5th among all starters in pitching WAR, second only to Shane Bieber in the American League. Likewise, when converting that WAR to dollars, Bundy also ranks fifth with a $5.5 million value, already exceeding his $5 million salary for 2020. He also ranks favorably in ERA (15th), FIP (13th), Hard-Hit Rate (14th), and BB/9 (7th).

While we’ve obviously got to put the standard small sample size disclaimer in play, we are also talking about a small overall season. From what we’ve seen thus far, regardless of sample size, Bundy has been among the best pitchers in the game this season. If he can continue those efforts, he’ll put himself into serious Cy Young consideration.

So why is 2020 Dylan Bundy so much better than prior years? Let’s take a look.

With the Angels, Dylan Bundy has escaped the American League East

When the Angels acquired Dylan Bundy, they knew he had a penchant for getting hit hard. However, they also considered the fact that he’s gone to war for six seasons in the American League East, a division filled with heavy-hitting teams and small ballparks. The right-hander needed a change of scenery and the Angels were willing to provide it.

Over the course of his career, Bundy has surrendered 116 career home runs. Of those 116, 56 have come against AL East opponents. However, those struggles went far beyond just the home run ball. Here are Bundy’s stats versus his AL East rivals.

vs Red Sox – 3-8, 4.99 ERA, 1.542 WHIP, 6.6 K/9, .288/.352/.489

vs Yankees – 2-6, 6.52 ERA, 1.621 WHIP, 8.8 K.9, .273/.365/.485

vs Blue Jays – 5-3, 3.07 ERA, 1.095 WHIP, 9.6 K.9, .225/.282/.403

vs Rays – 5-6, 6.19 ERA, 1.449 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, .273/.344/.569

Outside of the Toronto Blue Jays, the AL East teams were a nightmare for Dylan Bundy. However, the environment in the AL West is completely different, with younger teams in Seattle, Texas, and Oakland, and bigger ballparks in general. Coupled with a much better defense behind him in Anaheim, and the Angels have become the perfect fit for Bundy.

Dylan Bundy is evolving as a pitcher

If you go back and watch the video of Dylan Bundy’s start on Thursday, you’ll see a much different pitcher than the one Bundy was in his youth. He was moving the ball in and out of the zone, pitching to the edges and generally keeping Mariners hitters off balance.

Once a pitcher that relied on his fastball to bully hitters, the 27-year-old has evolved with age and has begun to focus on pitchability instead. Through three starts, Bundy is using his fastball at a career-low rate of 39.4%. Meanwhile, his slider usage is up 6.5% from 2019, his curveball is up 2.3%, and his change-up usage has increased by 1.9%.

Oddly enough, the change to more pitches with movement has come with an increase of control for Bundy. Through 21.2 innings of work, he’s walked just a pair of hitters. Meanwhile, hitters are swinging at pitches outside the zone at a clip of 37.2%, up nearly 1.6% from 2019.

With Bundy relying more on pitches with movement, he’s limiting hard contact as a result. While his barrel rate is identical to his 2019 figure of 5.9%, he’s reduced his launch angle by nearly 3.5 degrees and his hard-hit rate is down 6.4% from last season. As a result, his cumulative batting line against of .145/.188/.263 is pretty much in line with his expected numbers based on contact, .181/.195/.318.

Of course, evolution goes both ways, and the reports on Bundy will start making their way around the league. As such, his pitch mix may need to change from game to game, but so far he’s shown the ability to adapt.