Angels: 3 potential breakout candidates for 2021

OAKLAND, CA - AUGUST 23: Jo Adell #59 of the Los Angeles Angels bats during the game against the Oakland Athletics at RingCentral Coliseum on August 23, 2020 in Oakland, California. The Athletics defeated the Angels 5-4. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/Oakland Athletics/Getty Images)
OAKLAND, CA - AUGUST 23: Jo Adell #59 of the Los Angeles Angels bats during the game against the Oakland Athletics at RingCentral Coliseum on August 23, 2020 in Oakland, California. The Athletics defeated the Angels 5-4. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/Oakland Athletics/Getty Images)
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Which Angels players are most likely to have a breakout season in 2021?

Coming off their 5th straight losing season, and Mike Trout getting a year older, the Angels are desperate for success in 2021. In all likelihood, Newly hired GM Perry Minasian will look for external help via free agency and/or trades to address some glaring needs (ahem, pitching). While that outside help is definitely needed, the Angels will also have to rely on the players they already have to either step up or continue their success.

It’s always an inevitability that some players will emerge as top contributors out of nowhere, and every offseason it’s fun to predict which players will have a breakout season. In 2020, The Angels had several players who performed better than expected. Dylan Bundy solidified himself as the ace of the rotation; David Fletcher secured himself a spot at the top of the batting order and starting lineup; Jared Walsh, forced his way into everyday playing time and first-baseman of the future conversations; and Mike Mayers dominated out of the pen and is now the favorite for the closer role.

Looking toward 2021, the Angels have a few players who have a good chance at exceeding their projections. Let’s take a look, shall we?

OAKLAND, CA – AUGUST 23: Jo Adell #59 of the Los Angeles Angels bats during the game against the Oakland Athletics at RingCentral Coliseum on August 23, 2020 in Oakland, California. The Athletics defeated the Angels 5-4. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/Oakland Athletics/Getty Images)
OAKLAND, CA – AUGUST 23: Jo Adell #59 of the Los Angeles Angels bats during the game against the Oakland Athletics at RingCentral Coliseum on August 23, 2020 in Oakland, California. The Athletics defeated the Angels 5-4. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/Oakland Athletics/Getty Images) /

Jo Adell

Jo Adell’s rookie season didn’t go according to plan. Since being called up and making his debut on Aug 4th, he recorded a slash line of .161/.212/.266 with 3 home runs and a horrid K% of 41.1% over 124 at-bats. While still just a small sample size in a drastically shortened season, his stats leave much to be desired. There was also this infamous 4-base error he surrendered to Nick Solak of the Rangers.

There’s no denying that he had a rough season, and it has prompted some Angels fan to demand they trade him for pitching. Angels fans would be wise to be patient with the young slugger. In the not so distant past, a 19-year-old Mike Trout made his first stint in the majors, recording numbers not far off from the 21-year-old Adell. He recorded a slash line of .220/.281/.390 with 5 home runs and a K% of 23.39%. Now I’m not saying Adell bound to repeat Trout’s career, although it would be nice, I’m just saying let’s be patient here and give the kid a chance.

It’s true that Adell would be a fantastic bargaining chip, and would more than likely haul an ace-caliber pitcher. However, there is a reason why former Angels’ GM Billy Eppler refused to move him. Adell is going to be a star, and it may seem far-fetched after looking at his 2020 numbers, but Adell breaking-out may not be that far away, it may even happen in 2021.

Adell was considered a top prospect and was even as high as #2 on some lists, just behind highly-touted Rays SS Wander Franco. Adell was 5th on MLB’s prospect chart and had impressive scouting grades across the board. on the 20-80 scale, Adell’s grades were as follows: hit: 55, power: 60, run: 65, arm: 60, field: 60, overall: 60. The raw power and athleticism are well-documented, with scouts marveling at the shows he puts on during batting practice.

At the same time, while scouts praise his power, there is always a consistent caveat. His contact ability, or lack thereof, has also been a constant narrative surrounding Adell through his pro career. Over 904 minor league at-bats, he struck out 254 times, which has his K% at 28.09%. In almost every report, they say Adell will develop into a star if he improves his contact rate.

That may come as soon as next year. Yes, Adell had an atrocious year, and I don’t like to make excuses, but outlining these factors is the key to improving in the future. You may be able to chalk up it up to the first year jitters, which many players go through. Perhaps with the spring-training-less shortened season, he was never able to find a groove. Toward the end of the season, his playing time was also siphoned, as Taylor Ward received the bulk of playing time in right field as the Angels vied for a wild card berth. Irregular playing time can always be detrimental to one’s success, and Adell’s potential breakout relies heavily upon his performance in spring training and early in the season.

Looking at Adell’s batted ball profile is another reason why he might have a breakout season. Despite his poor numbers, he ranked in the 78th percentile with an average exit velocity of 90.6 mph. With his tremendous bat speed, when he makes contact he crushes balls. One issue that stands out is Adell’s discipline, as he chases 34% of balls out of the zone. If he can force pitchers into the strike zone, with his bat speed, his contact rates, and on-base percentage will drastically improve. This past season, his maximum exit velocity was 115.5mph, which puts him at 15th in the league, just behind Marcell Ozuna and in front of George Springer (and even Trout). Pretty good company eh?

If Adell can reach his potential, he is a legitimate 5-tool threat. While the bat is well-documented, scouts also marvel at his athleticism. His base-stealing is not yet elite, however, he has a sprint speed of 29.3 ft/s, which puts him in the top 2% of the league, that dude is fast. It remains to be seen whether or not the Angels attempt to develop his base-stealing ability. If Mike Trout’s sharp decline in stolen bases and increase in power numbers over his career is any indication, it’s likely that they encourage Adell to also focus on the bat. As someone who loves stolen bases, it would be disappointing to see. However, if it means Adell will reach his 35+ home run potential, I would be OK with it.

Regardless of whether or not Adell becomes an elite base-stealer, that speed will definitely be useful on defense. That speed is on full display on this incredible catch off a hard-hit Fernando Tatis Jr. ball:

His athleticism will also play well in the low-fence in right field at Angel Stadium. In fact, this season he robbed Springer of a home run.

The hype surrounding Adell has slightly soured, but as a plea to Angels fans I say: Please give him a chance, the man has drawn comparisons to Mookie Betts and Ronald Acuna, Jr. Perry Minasian would be a fool to trade this budding superstar. I expect Adell’s 2021 breakout to reignite his hype, and Angels’ fans will want to hold on to this guy for dear life.

ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA – JULY 15: Jaime Barria #51 of the Los Angeles Angels pitches during an intraleague game at their summer workouts at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on July 15, 2020 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)
ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA – JULY 15: Jaime Barria #51 of the Los Angeles Angels pitches during an intraleague game at their summer workouts at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on July 15, 2020 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /

Jaime Barria

This one may be a controversial take, as Jaime Barria has already technically had a breakout season. During his rookie season in 2018, he had a record of 10-9 and posted a 3.41 ERA, 1.268 WHIP, 4.58 FIP, and a 6.8 K/9 over 129.1 innings pitched. However, the following season he had regressed significantly, posting a record of 4-10 with a 6.42 ERA, 1.440 WHIP, and a 6.23 FIP over 82.2 innings pitched. Since then he has been strapped for opportunities, being removed from the rotation and sent down to AAA and recalled for sporadic spot starts. In 2021 however, Barria has the skillset to potentially breakout and solidify himself as a legitimate member of the Angels rotation.

A lot has to occur for that to happen. As it currently stands, according to the Angels’ depth chart on Fangraphs, Barria is listed as the fifth starter. However, they currently do not have Shohei Ohtani listed despite his expectation to rejoin the rotation next season. If Maddon intends to go with a 6-man rotation, Barria would fill that sixth spot. However (yes, another one), the Angels’ are expected to be entrenched in the pitching market this offseason, potentially signing one or two top free agent starters. Even on his first day on the job, Perry Minasian echoed that sentiment.

If and when the Angels add pieces to the rotation, Barria would most likely be the odd man out. Being an Angels fan most of my life, I know seasons don’t always go according to plan, in fact, they almost never do. The opening day rotation seldom remains intact for the duration of the long season. If an Angels starter goes down with an injury or underperforms, Barria could slide in and potentially force his way into future conversations.

Another way Barria could get an opportunity is if the Angels fail to sign or acquire quality starting pitching. In fact, two of the big names have already exited the already thin market, as Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman have both accepted their qualifying offers. Once the riot of Angels fans cools down, and Angel Stadium is rebuilt, fans might actually grow to love Barria. Although I wouldn’t recommend the Angels go this route, I will probably actually join that riot. Minasian has a tough offseason ahead of him, but it is almost a guarantee that they will emerge on the other side with 1 or 2 new starting pitching arms, leaving Barria’s only chance to prove himself in the case of an injury.

Given the Angels’ history of bad starting pitching health luck, it is unfortunately likely that one or more may go down for a significant period of time. Obviously, that would be terrible, but Angels fans should be assured that they have a solid option in Barria and that he is ready to have a breakout season if given the opportunity.

Barria had very limited chances in the shortened 2020 campaign (5 starts, 2 relief appearances, and 32.1 innings), and in which he put up respectable numbers, a 3.62 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.65 FIP, and 7.5 K/9. While still a small sample size, the numbers are promising and show he is ready to put his sophomore slump behind him.

If everything aligns in Barria’s favor, he would be a solid asset to the back of the rotation. The strikeout numbers aren’t elite, but they are definitely respectable for a starting pitcher. What impresses me most about Barria is his ability to miss barrels. Opposing hitters only found barrel against him 3.2% of the time, which puts him in the top 6% of the league. Looking deeper into his statcast numbers, it suggests he was even better than his 2020 numbers. His expected weighted on-base average (.254 xwOBA), expected earned runs against (2.90 xERA), and expected weighted on-base average on contact (.285 xwOBACON) are elite and puts him within the top 9% of the league. Just for reference, his xwOBA puts him ahead of Christian Javier, Brandon Woodruff, Max Fried, Yu Darvish, and yes, even Dylan Bundy.

Whatever direction the Angels decide to go in this offseason, I just hope one way or another that Barria is given a shot. I truly believe he is due for a legitimate breakout season and is able to cement his position in the Angels rotation for years to come.

TEMPE, AZ – FEBRUARY 21: Kenyan Middleton of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim poses for a portrait at Tempe Diablo Stadium on February 21, 2017 in Tempe, Arizona. (Photo by Rob Tringali/Getty Images)
TEMPE, AZ – FEBRUARY 21: Kenyan Middleton of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim poses for a portrait at Tempe Diablo Stadium on February 21, 2017 in Tempe, Arizona. (Photo by Rob Tringali/Getty Images) /

Kenyan Middleton

Much like Barria, Angels reliever Keynan Middleton enjoyed a solid rookie season. In 2017, he made a name for himself, posting a 3.86 ERA, 1.337 WHIP, 4.38 FIP, and 9.7 K/9 over 58.1 innings pitched. What differentiates Middleton from Barria is that he never had a sophomore slump, instead, he has battled injuries ever since. Over the last three seasons, he has only pitched a total of 37.1 innings. In 2018, he dealt with right elbow inflammation which led to him undergoing Tommy John Surgery.

In 2020, Middleton was healthy but logged only 12 innings of work. His poor performance led to him spending a significant portion of the season at the Alternate Site. In his limited chances, he compiled a 5.25 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 5.02 FIP, and 8.3 K/9, a far cry from his rookie campaign.

On the surface, the numbers don’t scream breakout potential. However, it is indeed just a small sample size, and looking deeper there is a reason for optimism. His primary pitch is his fastball, in which he throws 59% of the time. Coming off Tommy John Surgery in 2019, his fastball averaged only 94.1 mph, which is a significant drop off from the 96.9 mph in his rookie year. This season, he was able to build that strength back up and record an average velocity of 97.1 mph. Throwing harder than he did before TJ, even if it is only a 0.02 mph increase, is definitely promising. If he continues on that trajectory and continues to throw in the upper-90s, it would make his off-speed pitches all the more lethal, and he should be a force in the bullpen and may even see some 9th inning action in 2021.

With Cam Bedrosian electing free agency, Middleton is slated to begin the season in the big-league bullpen. Unlike Barria, Middleton will have his chance to prove himself from the get-go. If Middleton can dominate from the onset, like his stuff would suggest he can, he will have a breakout season and prove he’s capable of high-leverage situations.

A lot is at stake this season for Middleton. Not only does he have to impress the coaching staff to trust him more, but he also has to impress the Angels’ fanbase as well. On July 30th, after the Angels bullpen blew a 4-1 lead, giving up 8 runs, he made a series of tweets disrespecting Angels fans, inferring that they were trash-talking on Twitter. This caused major backlash, with some fans demanding they trade the fireballer. It remains to be seen whether or not Middleton will use this as motivation moving forward, but it could be a chip on his shoulder.

Middleton has the stuff to have a legitimate breakout. In a full season, with full health, and an opportunity to prove himself right away, I expect him to grab the chance and run with it. I don’t believe he will beat out Mike Mayers for the closing job, but he may force his way into a setup role, and show that he can be more than reliable in the future, winning back the hearts of many Angels fans.

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