LA Angels: 3 reasons to pass on top free agent Trevor Bauer

Bauer to the Angels? Not so fast — let’s play devil’s advocate.

Trevor Bauer is the best free agent starting pitcher on the market, but should the Angels really sign him? The Angels desperately need pitching if they want to win, and with a plethora of options on the market, there is no better opportunity to bolster their rotation this offseason. The glamour of the 2020 NL Cy Young winner, who is still on the market, may entice fans, and rightfully so. Bauer was one of the best starting pitchers in the shortened 2020 season and would immediately become their ace. For many fans, there seems to be no better fit for the Southern California native than to head home and contribute to the Angels’ championship endeavor.

The Angels have come short of making the postseason year in and year out, seemingly wasting the generational talent of Mike Trout. The Angels’ minimal efforts to improve their pitching staff is one reason for these failures. The Angels rotation, which was second worst in the league last season with a 5.52 ERA and 4.78 FIP, needs obvious work, but Bauer may not be the clear answer. Where their pursuit for Trevor Bauer stands, if they even have interest, remains unclear, but the Angels should be hesitant at throwing money for a pitcher like Bauer.

While signing Bauer may seem like a fantastic idea on paper, it’s an idea that needs to be scrutinized and re-considered. The Angels should absolutely look to find their ace, but solving the Angels’ lackluster rotation isn’t as simple as signing Bauer and calling it an offseason for a variety of reasons. There’s a convincing case to sign Bauer, and there’s also a convincing case to pass on him and look elsewhere.

Here are three reasons why the Los Angeles Angels ultimately would be better off not signing Bauer this offseason.

The Numbers

Trevor Bauer had a career year in 2020, but how good was he? He posted a minuscule 1.73 ERA and had 100 K’s in 73 innings pitched en route to a Cy Young, but a deeper dive into the numbers suggest that Bauer could’ve been worse. He had a 2.88 FIP and 3.25 xFIP in 2020, which is still very good, but there is some batted ball luck in there. Although Trevor Bauer had the lowest ERA in the National League among qualifiers, he had the highest FIP when compared to Yu Darvish and Jacob deGrom, who finished 2nd and 3rd in NL Cy Young voting respectively.

It’s also important to consider that Bauer pitched in a smaller sample size due to the shortened season, making only 11 starts, with a bulk of those starts coming against NL Central teams. 4 of 5 NL Central teams made the postseason, but collectively had a poor hitting season relative to the overall performance by the rest of the league.

Bauer’s inconsistencies stem throughout his career. He has a career 3.90 ERA and 3.85 FIP, and the season after his 2018 All-Star season with the Indians where he posted a 2.21 ERA, he struggled mightily, ending the year with a 4.48 ERA and 4.34 FIP. According to FanGraphs, Bauer is projected to have a 3.76 ERA in 2021. Not great, but with his track record and expected production, it makes sense. The expectation that Bauer will repeat his 2020 production is unrealistic. Paying a pretty penny for a wildly inconsistent pitcher is a gamble the Angels should not take.

Cost

Although it remains unclear what type of contract Bauer is seeking, the expectation is that the contract will be high AAV. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported that Bauer is seeking a 5-6 year deal with up to $40 million AAV. This demands a contract that could exceed the $200 million mark, which is essentially a shorter Gerrit Cole contract. Although Bauer quickly retorted, denying the report’s accuracy, paying Bauer record-breaking AAV over a 6 year stretch is ridiculous and severely overpaying what he’s actually worth.

For comparison, Jacob deGrom agreed to a five-year, $137 million contract extension with the Mets in 2019. His two Cy Young awards and 2.61 career ERA netted him far less than what Bauer is reportedly demanding, both in total value and annual value. Bauer’s demands are those of a top 5 pitcher, which Bauer isn’t. If the starting point in negotiations is $180 million, the Angels should steer clear and never look back. Even at just 5 years, it is a type of contract that could age very poorly and end with the Angels looking to get rid of the salary.

The Angels should by no means get in a searing bidding war for Bauer and should instead have lax demands for him. Bauer will be expensive and negotiations only go up in price. Plus, that money can easily be spread around to address the multiple holes in the Angels roster. Bauer is a good pitcher, but isn’t worth the entire payroll and the Angels should avoid paying him.