Assessing the Angels outfield situation with predictions (Part 1)

In 2017, the Angels traded for All-Star rental left-fielder Justin Upton in a push for the playoffs. Unfortunately, they came up short, finishing five games behind the Twins for the final wild card spot. In his brief time, Upton impressed.

Even with an underwhelming .245 batting average, Upton hit seven home runs in 27 games. For context, that would be 42 home runs over a full 162-game season. That performance was good enough for the Angels to extend him a five-year/$108 million deal. He was the clear-cut choice to patrol left field.

That clarity is no longer the case. Since Upton signed his extension, he has been, for the most part, a disappointment. On the positive side, in 2018, Upton hit for a .257 batting average, with 30 home runs and 85 RBI. On the negative side, after missing the first two and a half months of the 2019 season, he has never returned to the level of play expected of him. Over the last two seasons, Upton has recorded a slash line of .210/.301/.418 with 21 home runs in 105 games played.

Justin Upton needs a bounce back season to remain an everyday outfielder for the Angels.

Is this the new normal for Upton? He has not been the elite performer that the Angels were relying on. Although he continues to hit the ball very hard (87th percentile in exit velocity and 75th percentile in hard-hit percentage), Upton’s other Statcast numbers are atrocious (25th percentile in xBA, 32nd percentile in K%, 23rd percentile in BB%, 29th percentile in whiff %, and 11th percentile in outs above average).

Not only has his offensive production been suspect, but his defense, also. This past season, he recorded a UZR/150 of -16.6. Part of that atrocious number can be explained by his outfielder jump that puts him in the league’s 11th percentile.

In 2020, despite Upton’s lucrative contract, he saw starts taken away from him from the likes of Taylor Ward and Brian Goodwin. While the Angels are set to pay him $23 million this season, he will likely see starts taken away if he continues his regression.

As it stands now, Upton will get every chance to remain as the everyday left fielder role. Ideally, he would spend most of his time as a designated hitter, but as we know, that spot will be clogged all season by Shohei Ohtani and Albert Pujols. The Halos are a bit tied up with Upton.

Despite making a name for himself in the Angels minor league system, Taylor Ward struggled in his first two seasons in the big leagues. Spending the majority of his time at third base, Ward compiled an abysmal slash line of .181/.256/.333.

The Angels made it clear their confidence in Ward was low. During the 2019-2020 Toffseason, They signed All-Star Anthony Rendon to a seven-year/$245 million contract, effectively closing the book on Ward’s chances at starting at the hot corner for the foreseeable future. If he wanted a chance at starting, he would require a position change.

Prior to spring training in 2020, the Angels floated the idea of having Ward return to his original position of catcher. However, they seemed to abandon the project soon after, whether it was due to the COVID shutdown or otherwise. That left Ward with few options, and he found himself fighting for a spot as the team’s fourth outfielder.

Taylor Ward has shown signs of being a starter in the Angels outfield next season.

He made the team out of spring training but had to claw his way for playing time, as he had to compete with Upton, Brian Goodwin, and Jo Adell for the two corner spots. In his limited chances, he struggled, hitting .188/.235/.188 through seven games in July, and .111/.200/.222 through seven games in August.

When Goodwin was traded before last season’s deadline and Adell also struggling, something lit a fire under Ward, as his path to a starting job became more clear. In September and October, he won the starting right field job away from Adell as the Halos made a playoff push. Although the team came up just short of the postseason, in that span, he hit .350/.400/.483 in 20 games.

With Ward’s late-season success, and Angel’s manager Joe Maddon already going on the record to say that Adell will start the season in the minors, it looks like Ward is the clear-cut favorite to be the Angels opening day right fielder. However, that may not be the case.

Over the last couple of seasons, Angels outfielder Jared Walsh has been putting up big numbers in the minor league.

At the triple-A level in 2019, Walsh slashed .325/.423/.686 with 36 home runs over 382 at-bats. Walsh continued that success for the Angels in 2020 and enjoyed a breakout season where he posted a line of .293/.324/.646 with nine home runs in 99 at-bats. On top of that, Walsh also finished seventh in AL Rookie of the Year voting, just behind James Karinchak and ahead of Jesus Luzardo.

With the statistics Walsh put up, he appears to be a shoo-in for a corner outfield job. The only caveat is that Walsh only has 16 major league innings in right field under his belt, as he has spent the large majority of his appearances at first base.

Should the Angels consider trading Jared Walsh if there is nowhere to play him?

If other options are blocking Walsh from becoming an everyday starter, he would bring some excellent depth to the Angels bench. This is something that sometimes gets overlooked but it is an essentially part to any successful team.

There is also the possibility Walsh could make a valuable trade chip if the Angels see fit.

There’s no question that Walsh has earned his spot in the starting lineup for opening day. The only question that remains now is: Where will he play? The answer to that largely falls on Joe Maddon and whether or not he trusts Albert Pujols to man first base on a daily basis. If he does, Walsh will likely be moved to right field if he shows he’s capable of the task in spring training.

After being drafted 10th overall in 2017, Jo Adell skyrocketed through the minor leagues and made his major league debut at the age of 21 last season.

The hype surrounding Adell was astronomical, as he was a consensus top-10 prospect on every list and often appeared in the top-5. Adell’s debut, however, was less than impressive. He was the worst qualified hitter in the league, slashing .161/.212/.266 with three home runs and a strikeout rate of 41.7 percent over 124 at-bats.

Despite the poor performance, Angels fans shouldn’t give up on Adell. I wrote at length as to why I believed Adell would be a good breakout candidate for the 2021 season. However, Joe Maddon has gone on record to say Adell will start the season in triple-A.

Part of the reason Adell struggled so much was a lack of minor league season in 2020. He was called up in early August after playing in non-competitive games at the alternate site. The plan for Adell in 2020 was to give him more experience in triple-A since he only had 131 plate appearances the season prior. That plan was obviously upended by the pandemic. Adell was seemingly rushed as it was clear he was not ready for the major leagues in 2020.

Jo Adell will begin the season in the minor leagues, but he could play for the Angels soon.

Adell probably shouldn’t have been called up last season, but hindsight is “2020”. I will admit I was one of the many voices hoping for Adell to join the big league team and was more than excited when he did.

It remains to be seen when Adell will return to the Angels, but until then, it is clear he will not factor into the outfield conversation for opening day.

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The current Angels outfielders will battle for starting spots this season. If none of them can get the job done, the answers may lie elsewhere via trade or free agents.

To be continued…