LA Angels 2021 spring training guide: who gets the final rotation spots?

The Angels rotation has stood out as a glaring need for quite some time, without being addressed in any meaningful way.

This team has ‘been in the mix’ and has missed out on both of the last two top free-agent starting pitchers. The last time the Angels made a big splash in signing a starting pitcher was C.J. Wilson in 2011.

The Halos are reported to still show an interest in Jake Odorizzi, but whether or not any additions happen remains to be seen.

To accommodate Shohei Ohtani’s two-way schedule, the Angels have implemented a six-man rotation when he has been healthy. There are two objectives with this strategy; the first is to maximize Ohtani’s opportunities to serve as the designated hitter; and secondly, and most importantly, is to minimize injury risk by giving pitchers more rest between starts.

The Angels will have a number of different options competing for a spot in the rotation this spring.

No matter how much you try to minimize this risk, it will always be prevalent. This is a well-known and frustrating fact among Angels fans from recent years. To combat this, the Angels’ front office has set out to improve their depth. They have signed Jose Quintana and traded for Alex Cobb. Neither move jumps off the page as exciting, but at the same time, they didn’t sacrifice their young, semi-capable MLB arms, such as Patrick Sandoval and Jaime Barria, in doing so.

The way I see it, heading into spring training, four of the six rotation spots are secured. Leading the way will be 2020 breakout ace Dylan Bundy, lefty Andrew Heaney, rising star Griffin Canning, and two-way sensation Ohtani. Let’s take a look at the possible candidates to fill out the final two spots.

Alex Cobb RHP

Last off-season, the Angels traded four minor leaguers for a struggling Baltimore Orioles starter. That player was Dylan Bundy. As you already know, that trade worked out, as Bundy quickly became the ace of the Halos rotation.

Bundy was considered a top prospect who never reached his potential, this in part to a series of unfortunate injuries early in his career. In his final year as a member of the Orioles, he recorded a 4.79 ERA, 1.355 WHIP, 4.73 FIP, and 9.0 K/9 over 161.2 IP. The Angels took a chance on him, and it paid off in spades, as he broke out with a 3.29 ERA, 1.036 WHIP, 2.95 FIP, and 9.9 K/9 over 65.2 IP, while finishing ninth in the AL Cy Young voting.

The Angels are attempting to repeat history. They’ve traded for Alex Cobb, who for the Orioles in 2020, recorded a 4.30 ERA, 1.338 WHIP, 4.87 FIP, and 6.5 K/9 over 52.1 IP. While his traditional stats aren’t horrendous, his Statcast numbers are. He finished in the sixth percentile in exit velocity, fourth percentile in hard-hit rate, eight percentile in xwOBA and xERA, second percentile in xBA, and 11th percentile in xSLG.

The Angels are hoping Alex Cobb can regain the form of his best pitching days.

So what exactly were the Angels thinking with this move? There are a few motivating factors that stick out to me. The first is that he is a former player of Joe Maddon. This may seem like an odd reason to get a player, but it is part of a trend of these offseason acquisitions. The Angels have also added ex-Maddon types such as Dexter Fowler, Jon Jay, and Jose Quintana. It begs the question of just how much pull Maddon has with the front office, but that is a topic for another article.

The second factor, and probably the most important one, is that Cobb is a predominantly ground-ball pitcher. In 2020, he induced ground balls 54.2 percent of the time, which resulted in a 4.55 ground ball to fly ball ratio. While the Angels lost the best defensive shortstop in Andrelton Simmons’s league, they replaced him with Jose Iglesias, who is none-to-shabby on the defensive side himself. With Anthony Rendon, Iglesias, David Fletcher, and Jared Walsh manning the infield, the Angels front office felt confident enough that their lockdown defense will help Cobb bounce back.

What is concerning to me is that if Cobb shows no sign of improvement this spring, continues to get hit hard, and gets outperformed, the Angels might keep him in the rotation regardless of another pitcher deserving it more. Throughout his nine-year career, Cobb has never pitched an inning of relief. So it seems that there are not many options with what to do with a struggling Cobb. His career numbers and veteran presence suggest he may be a lock for the rotation.

If this move works out, other teams will start to take notice, and any struggling Baltimore Oriole pitcher will be the most sought-after asset in all of baseball.

Just kidding. I hope.

Early in the offseason, I included Jaime Barria in my 2021 breakout candidates article. I believe his 2018 rookie season in which he put up a 3.41 ERA, 1.268 WHIP, 4.58 FIP, and 6.8 K/9 is more indicative of the type of player he is than his ugly 2019 sophomore campaign in which he bounced up and down from triple-A while recording a 6.42 ERA, 1.440 WHIP, 6.23 FIP, and 8.2 K/9.

The reason I believe this is because of how well he pitched during the 2020 season. Over five starts and two relief appearances, he put up a 3.62 ERA, 1.113 WHIP, 3.65 FIP, and 7.5 K/9. The Statcast numbers are even more impressive. He ranked in the 91st percentile in xwOBA and xERA, 76th percentile in xBA, 80th percentile in xSLG, 94th percentile in barrel rate and 74th percentile in walk rate.

When will Jaime Barria get his shot to become a permanent starter for the Angels?

When I wrote about Barria’s breakout chances, it was before the Angels had made any moves. Barria was still listed as a starter on the depth chart. I said it was likely that he would be pushed to the bullpen as the Angels were in the hunt for one or two top arms. They did acquire two rotation arms; however, the quality is not exactly what Halos fans expected. The chances of Barria forcing his way into the rotation are now higher than I initially thought they’d be.

Despite Barria proving that he is a solid and capable rotation piece, the Angels remain unconfident in guaranteeing him a spot in the rotation. However, they’ve created a situation in which, with a strong spring showing, Barria could force his way into regular starts.

The beautiful thing about spring training is that it will give Angels fans and the coaching staff a good look at what the organization offers depth-wise. While these following names will not likely break camp as a starter, it is worth mentioning as they are options to use should one of the rotation members miss time with injury.

One of the following players could get their opportunity to start for the Angels in the near future.

Patrick Sandoval LHP

The first is Patrick Sandoval. This is a pitcher who has been lucky enough, through injuries from others, to have an opportunity to show the front office that he is capable of starting at the big-league level. The only problem is that he hasn’t been able to. Over two seasons, he has recorded an underwhelming 1-9 record with a 5.33 ERA, 1.355 WHIP, 5.23 FIP, and 8.1 K/9 over 76.0 IP. Barring any massive improvements, there is little chance Sandoval earns a spot in the rotation this spring. On the plus side, he is only 24-years old, and provides some starting experience should he be called upon during the year. Sandoval is definitely an ideal depth option.

Jose Suarez LHP

Jose Suarez has had a similar start to his career as Sandoval. He is a young arm who has been given the opportunity to prove himself. Much like Sandoval, he couldn’t. Over 83.1 IP, he’s compiled a 2-8 record, 7.99 ERA, 1.776 WHIP, 6.95 FIP, and 8.0 K/9. Suarez won’t make the rotation this spring, but like Sandoval, he’s young (23) and has had experience starting at the big league level. I’m confident in having those two options waiting at triple-A should they be needed.

Jake Faria

Jake Faria is an interesting option. He stormed onto the scene in his rookie season with the Rays, where he had a 3.43 ERA, 1.177 WHIP, 4.12 FIP, and 8.7 K/9 over 86.2 IP. However, he has seriously regressed since then. He didn’t pitch at the major-league level in 2020, and from 2018-19 he accumulated a 5.70 ERA, 1.590 WHIP, 5.45 FIP, and 7.4 K/9 over 83.2 innings pitched. The Angels signed him to a minor-league deal with an invite to spring training. He is likely to compete for a bullpen spot, but if Faria can return to his rookie self, he could force his way into the rotation. That is not very likely, but it may be an interesting story to keep an eye on.

Prospects

A few long-shots include 2020 first-round pick Reid Detmers, Chris Rodriguez, and Hector Yan. They are all promising young prospects, but they are unlikely to make the team as a starter regardless of how they do in camp. Still, it’ll be fun to watch how these arms stack up with the more solidified options.

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My prediction is that when spring training is wrapping up, Quintana and Cobb will round out the No. 5 and No.6 spots. However, I think Barria will force Maddon to make a tough decision. If Barria performs well in spring, maybe it even helps to motivate Cobb to pitch better. If Cobb indeed earns that final spot, Barria will remain on the active roster but won’t be far away if Cobb struggles.