Ranking the chances each MLB team has to sign Shohei Ohtani this offseason

The offseason is now here, and all eyes are officially on Shohei Ohtani. The Los Angeles Angels' superstar is a free agent for the first since he joined the Angels prior to the 2018 season, and is going to set records with whatever contract he signs.

More than half the league will presumably check in at the very least to gauge the price tag that will be attached to Shohei Ohtani this offseason. In all likelihood a deal will cover at least the next decade for a total that is nine figures and either begins with a four or a five. Yes, that big.

Whether the Angels should keep him or not is a legitimate question considering his durability concerns and the fact that he's already 29, but the Angels will certainly be a team involved in the hunt whether you want them to be or not. The Angels are absolutely a realistic destination for Shohei. They're not the favorites, but they should be on a list of realistic landing spots.

The unfortunate reality for some MLB teams is they have zero shot at signing the best player we've ever seen. Ohtani wants to win, and he also wants to make a lot of money. Some teams can offer one or the other, there are many teams that offer neither.

Let’s rank the chances all 30 teams have to sign Ohtani to his next contract.

Tier 6: The teams that shouldn't bother calling

30) Oakland Athletics
29) Kansas City Royals
28) Cleveland Guardians
27) Pittsburgh Pirates
26) Miami Marlins

Each of the five teams in this tier will not be able to afford the monstrous contract Ohtani will be asking for. Four of the five teams in this tier missed the playoffs in 2023, and will likely miss again in 2024.

The Athletics and Royals combined to lose a whopping total of 218 games this past season and have bleak futures as well. The A's are the biggest laughing stock in baseball, and the Royals aren't too far behind. It's just not happening.

Cleveland and Pittsburgh are two teams that could potentially win in the not-too-distant future if they actually spent money, but we know they won't. They have decent pieces on their rosters now with some intriguing prospects as well, but lack the superstar talent needed to get over the top.

The Marlins are the only team that made the playoffs in this sixth tier, but the largest contract they have on their books is Sandy Alcantara who is making $56 million over five years. Ohtani likely won't make that much per year, but he'll be awfully close. Miami would be a fun spot for Shohei, but it's not happening.

None of these five teams should bother even reaching out to Ohtani as their offers won't be anything close to where Ohtani is at.

Tier 4: The fun teams that won't pay enough

20) Cincinnati Reds
19) Minnesota Twins
18) Arizona Diamondbacks
17) Baltimore Orioles
16) Tampa Bay Rays

This group is made up of teams that were solid to great in 2023 and all have outstanding futures ahead of them. If they were to add a player like Shohei Ohtani to the fold, they'd be perennial contenders. Unfortunately, they won't spend the money.

The Reds are a fun, young group that surprised the baseball world by remaining in the postseason hunt until the end. If they improve their pitching they'd be a force to be reckoned with. Ohtani hitting at Great American Ballpark 81 times a year would be a treat to watch as well.

The Twins just won the AL Central and could win it consistently with how bad the division is. They finally snapped their playoff losing streak before bowing out in the ALDS to Houston. They'll be in the postseason mix, but not the Ohtani mix.

The Diamondbacks just won the NL Pennant, so it's a shame they're this low. To their credit, they did pay Corbin Carroll a ton of money to remain with the franchise for a long time. Unfortunately, that was before he had played a full season so they got a discount. They won't get that same discount for the soon-to-be two-time AL MVP.

The Orioles just won the AL East and are poised to remain among the leaders in that competitive division for years to come. They have a loaded MLB roster and the top prospect in all of baseball, Jackson Holliday, hasn't even debuted yet. The Orioles are unfortunately owned by a cheap owner who will never go near Ohtani's asking price.

The Rays are an interesting team because of how interested they were in adding him at the deadline. It was reported that the Rays were willing to offer a haul to land Ohtani but nothing came to fruition. Tampa Bay likely can't afford to go near Ohtani's asking price, but them offering him a bloated short-term deal probably can't be ruled out.

Tier 3: Teams that can likely pay Ohtani but have little shot at landing him

15) San Diego Padres
14) Houston Astros
13) St. Louis Cardinals
12) Atlanta Braves
11) Philadelphia Phillies

These teams can presumably afford to reach Ohtani's asking price or at least come close. They're also teams that have rosters that can be competitive in 2024. They either won't be as desperate as the top-10 teams, or just aren't as appealing to actually land him.

The Padres are a team that appears to be having a lot of financial problems, but they can't be completely ruled out simply because of what they've done in recent years. I'd be shocked if they were in serious discussions with Ohtani ever, but had this list been made prior to the regular season they would've been higher.

The Astros are, of course, a perenial contender in the midst of a mini-dynasty, but they likely won't be able to convince Ohtani to go there. Plus, Ohtani is just a .217 lifetime hitter at Minute Maid Park. He shouldn't want to play 81 games in a place where he clearly doesn't see the ball well.

St. Louis would be a fun landing spot with Ohtani's friendship with Cardinals outfielder Lars Nootbaar in the spotlight, but they're a team that desperately needs pitching ASAP. Ohtani is a pitcher, of course, but he's not pitching in 2024. The Cards can't afford to pass on another year of Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado by only signing Ohtani and not multiple starters.

The Braves signing Ohtani would just be unfair. They already won 107 games and looked like the best team in baseball without him. They also tied the single-season home run record without him. Ohtani could potentially be the latest team to send money to the Braves foundation, but I'd be surprised if the team that allowed Freddie Freeman and Dansby Swanson walk in free agency would go to the levels it'd take to convince him to come to Georgia.

The Phillies are a team that can't be ruled out of any high-priced free agent because of their past, but it's so hard to see them landing Shohei. They're another team that needs to spend on a pitcher to win in 2024, and Ohtani is not that. Plus, they've got Kyle Schwarber at DH who shouldn't be anywhere else. They'll make a call and should engage, but it's hard to see them swimming in those waters.

Tier 2: The runners-up

10) Toronto Blue Jays
9) Boston Red Sox
8) New York Yankees
7) Los Angeles Angels
6) Seattle Mariners

We're now entering the teams that I believe have a serious shot, but won't be able to close the door on an Ohtani deal.

The Blue Jays are a team that was recently linked to Ohtani. It was reported by Shi Davidi of Sportsnet that Ohtani "had taken notice of the Blue Jays’ player-development resources and that the idea of adding a third country, Canada, to his prime fanbase carried some appeal for him." The Jays could be desperate enough to spend the money on Ohtani with their recent playoff failures, but they have to pay guys like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette soon, so it's hard to see them also giving Ohtani his megadeal.

The Red Sox are another team that's been linked to Ohtani recently, as Ohtani has a deal with New Balance out of Boston. The Sox can certainly afford to pay him and have the history of winning, but have a roster that has finished in last place in three of the last four years and have an inexperienced President of Baseball Operations running things now in Craig Breslow. It's not impossible, but not likely.

The Yankees are going to be linked with every big free agent. They're a team that's always coveted Ohtani, and I'm sure Shohei is at least intrigued with the idea of going to New York. The problem with them is that they already have a ton of future money tied up in players like Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Judge, Carlos Rodon, and Gerrit Cole. With New York not being the spenders they once were, it's hard to see them adding a player of Ohtani's salary to that list.

The Angels are a team Ohtani is clearly comfortable with. They let him do his own thing, they already nursed him through one Tommy John Surgery, and he's become a legend with the team. They haven't won anything which makes him leaving likely, but Arte Moreno is going to want him back badly for the money, and Ohtani definitely likes it in Southern California. Again, not likely, but not impossible.

The Mariners have the pitching to carry them but lack the middle of the order bat to pair with Julio Rodriguez. Ohtani, of course, can be that guy. Whether Seattle will pay enough to compete with the top teams remains to be seen, but they were a team Ohtani considered the first time around and have only improved their stock since.

Tier 1: The favorites

5) Chicago Cubs
4) Texas Rangers
3) San Francisco Giants
2) New York Mets
1) Los Angeles Dodgers

These five teams should be considered the favorites to land Shohei Ohtani this offseason. They're teams that are set up to be competitive for a long time with the pockets to make a deal work.

The Cubs might've collapsed to finish out the 2023 season, but should be ready to take the next step in 2024 and make the playoffs. Adding a player like Ohtani could be what puts them over the top. They were the only team that didn't play in a western division that was considered a finalist for Ohtani his first time around, and have the money to make it happen.

The Rangers might've just won the World Series, but who's to say they're going to slow down? They've been ultra-aggressive in each of the last two offseasons and could absolutely try and steal Ohtani away from their AL West rivals. They were also another team that was reportedly ready to go big on Ohtani at the trade deadline, presumably with the goal of making him a Texas Ranger for a very long time.

The Giants are a team that whiffed twice last offseason when looking for their new face of the franchise, watching Aaron Judge sign for less money to stay with the Yankees and watching Carlos Correa stay in Minnesota after failing his physical. I'm not sure they have the roster quite as good as the others and AT&T Park is brutal for left-handed hitters, but they have the money and location Ohtani will want, plus a ton of desperation.

If Ohtani considered an East Coast team, the Mets should absolutely be considered a very clear favorite. Despite a down year in 2023 they have a great core which includes fellow countryman Kodai Senga. The Mets also have Steve Cohen and his ability to hand Ohtani a blank check. The Mets have landed several big names since Cohen took over, and there's a good chance he offers him the most money.

The Dodgers have been considered the favorites all along, and I see no reason why that should be different now. They make the playoffs every year, and a player like Ohtani could be what puts them over the top. He'd stay in Los Angeles and the Dodgers are another team that can easily pay him what he wants. Chance to win, location, money, they've got it all.