LA Angels: How lost 2020 season could impact Trout, Pujols milestones

Albert Pujols chase for 700 HR

Probability with 2020 season: 22%

Probability, no 2020 season: 5%

Albert Pujols has hit 656 career home runs, 211 of which came with the Angels over the past eight seasons. At 40-years-old, the days of him hitting 40 home runs each season are long gone, but he has maintained an ability to connect on 20+ long balls over the past several seasons. He needs 44 more home runs over the next two years, before his contract runs up, to reach the magical 700 number, a total that only three players have reached in baseball history (Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, and Babe Ruth).

If no 2020 season is played, it seems impossible to believe Pujols would reach 700 home runs during the final year of his contract in Anaheim. But even if he signed a one-year deal to play DH somewhere and continue his chase of history, at that point, he would be 43-years-old. Remember, Szymborki’s probabilities consider a player, like Pujols, extending their career an extra season to reach a major milestone.

The most home runs ever hit by a 43-year-old is 18 by Carlton Fisk in 1991, and other than that, only Carl Yastrzemski has connected on even ten long balls at such an advanced age.

Pujols has amassed over 3,000 hits, his batting average sits at a perfect .300 mark for his career, and his collection of Silver Slugger, Gold Gloves, and MVP awards will make him a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, whether he hits 700 home runs or not. However, a lost season severely impacts his chances of putting his name next to Babe Ruth in the record books, a feat he surely would like to accomplish.

Mike Trout’s chase for everything

Most At Risk: 3,000 hits, 600 (or even 700) home runs

Over the first half of Mike Trout’s career, he has already achieved what many players wish they could achieve in a lifetime. He has won three MVPs and seven Silver Slugger Awards, while smacking 285 home runs and accumulating 1,324 hits. At 28-years-old, it seems like he is just getting started.

But are there certain milestones that would be difficult for him to achieve if he lost an entire season within the prime age of his career?

The logical answer is, yes, of course. And the projections prove it out. According to Szymborki’s probabilities, a lost season would most impact Trout on his quest for 3,000 hits, which he would have a 36% chance of reaching if a season is played, versus only a 25% chance if the season is canceled.

Trout needs 1,676 more hits to reach the 3000 plateau. A tall task, even for him, considering he has been one of the best, if not the best, players in all of baseball over the past eight seasons, and he is still not halfway to the milestone.

The centerfielder signed a record-breaking extension with the Angels last March that will keep him playing until at least 2030, eleven more seasons, which might be just enough for him to reach 3,000, assuming each season is played.

Without the 2020 season, if Trout plays out his extension until he is 39-years-old, while averaging the same number of hits he has over the previous eight years (162), he would fall just short of 3,000 (with 2,944). Of course, at that point, he could sign another short-term contract and ultimately reach the magical number. But all of this assumes he can keep hitting the baseball like the best player in the game well past his prime years.

Besides 3,000 hits, a lost season also hurts Trouts chances to reach 600 home runs (58% if the 2020 season is played; 48% if it does not), and consequently the next big jump to 700 home runs (17% probability if 2020 is played; only 9% if not).

Mike Trout donates food to New Jersey hospital workers fighting COVID-19

There are more important things to consider about the current situation facing Major League Baseball from a public health standpoint. But if we focus on the distraction the game provides us on the field, a lost 2020 season could prevent some great players from reaching major milestones.