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LA Angels: How lost 2020 season could impact Trout, Pujols milestones

By Jeffrey Bellone |
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - JUNE 03: Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Albert Pujols #5 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim observe the national anthem before the game against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on June 03, 2019 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - JUNE 03: Mike Trout #27 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Albert Pujols #5 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim observe the national anthem before the game against the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on June 03, 2019 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
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Mike Trout and Albert Pujols could fall short of major milestones if 2020 is canceled. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
Mike Trout and Albert Pujols could fall short of major milestones if 2020 is canceled. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Getty Images) /

How a canceled season would impact Los Angeles Angels stars Mike Trout and Albert Pujols in their quest for historic milestones.

Every Major League player is one step closer to retirement tomorrow than they are today. But for some players, there are a lot less steps ahead of them than behind. Albert Pujols is one of these examples. The future Hall-of-Famer turned 40 this offseason, and after 19 seasons in the majors, will surely retire at the end of his massive contract with the Angels in 2022. He keeps playing in hopes of reaching a few final milestones.

Mike Trout, on the other hand, has father time on his side. The 28-year-old center fielder has already built a career worthy of Hall-of-Fame consideration, but he seems to be just getting started. How many milestones will he achieve over his career?

The fate of both Pujols and Trout chasing history could be determined by the 2020 season. Games have already been wiped off the calendar. But if no season is played, how does that impact their respective chances of reaching key milestones they would otherwise have a chance to meet?

Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs, who developed the ZiPS projection system used on the site, wrote an article on Friday to show the impact of a lost 2020 season on various key milestones.

[As an aside, with every site struggling to generate revenue amid the coronavirus pandemic, please make sure you support FanGraphs for the amazing work they do, like this most recent example]

Szymborski calculated the probabilities of active players reaching major milestones, such as 700 home runs, or 4000 strikeouts, based on whether a reduced 2020 season is played, or if no season is played at all. He took into account the added probability that a player close to a milestone would possibly extend their career one more season to try to achieve it.

Let’s take a look at the numbers to understand how Pujols and Trout are impacted by a lost 2020 season.

OAKLAND, CA – SEPTEMBER 3: Albert Pujols #5 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim hits a home run during the game against the Oakland Athletics at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on September 3, 2019 in Oakland, California. The Athletics defeated the Angels 7-5. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/Oakland Athletics/Getty Images)
OAKLAND, CA – SEPTEMBER 3: Albert Pujols #5 of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim hits a home run during the game against the Oakland Athletics at the Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum on September 3, 2019 in Oakland, California. The Athletics defeated the Angels 7-5. (Photo by Michael Zagaris/Oakland Athletics/Getty Images) /

Albert Pujols chase for 700 HR

Probability with 2020 season: 22%

Probability, no 2020 season: 5%

Albert Pujols has hit 656 career home runs, 211 of which came with the Angels over the past eight seasons. At 40-years-old, the days of him hitting 40 home runs each season are long gone, but he has maintained an ability to connect on 20+ long balls over the past several seasons. He needs 44 more home runs over the next two years, before his contract runs up, to reach the magical 700 number, a total that only three players have reached in baseball history (Barry Bonds, Hank Aaron, and Babe Ruth).

If no 2020 season is played, it seems impossible to believe Pujols would reach 700 home runs during the final year of his contract in Anaheim. But even if he signed a one-year deal to play DH somewhere and continue his chase of history, at that point, he would be 43-years-old. Remember, Szymborki’s probabilities consider a player, like Pujols, extending their career an extra season to reach a major milestone.

The most home runs ever hit by a 43-year-old is 18 by Carlton Fisk in 1991, and other than that, only Carl Yastrzemski has connected on even ten long balls at such an advanced age.

Pujols has amassed over 3,000 hits, his batting average sits at a perfect .300 mark for his career, and his collection of Silver Slugger, Gold Gloves, and MVP awards will make him a first-ballot Hall-of-Famer, whether he hits 700 home runs or not. However, a lost season severely impacts his chances of putting his name next to Babe Ruth in the record books, a feat he surely would like to accomplish.

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JANUARY 25: American League MVP Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels poses for a photo at the 97th annual New York Baseball Writers’ Dinner on January 25, 2020 Sheraton New York in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)
NEW YORK, NEW YORK – JANUARY 25: American League MVP Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels poses for a photo at the 97th annual New York Baseball Writers’ Dinner on January 25, 2020 Sheraton New York in New York City. (Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images) /

Mike Trout’s chase for everything

Most At Risk: 3,000 hits, 600 (or even 700) home runs

Over the first half of Mike Trout’s career, he has already achieved what many players wish they could achieve in a lifetime. He has won three MVPs and seven Silver Slugger Awards, while smacking 285 home runs and accumulating 1,324 hits. At 28-years-old, it seems like he is just getting started.

But are there certain milestones that would be difficult for him to achieve if he lost an entire season within the prime age of his career?

The logical answer is, yes, of course. And the projections prove it out. According to Szymborki’s probabilities, a lost season would most impact Trout on his quest for 3,000 hits, which he would have a 36% chance of reaching if a season is played, versus only a 25% chance if the season is canceled.

Trout needs 1,676 more hits to reach the 3000 plateau. A tall task, even for him, considering he has been one of the best, if not the best, players in all of baseball over the past eight seasons, and he is still not halfway to the milestone.

The centerfielder signed a record-breaking extension with the Angels last March that will keep him playing until at least 2030, eleven more seasons, which might be just enough for him to reach 3,000, assuming each season is played.

Without the 2020 season, if Trout plays out his extension until he is 39-years-old, while averaging the same number of hits he has over the previous eight years (162), he would fall just short of 3,000 (with 2,944). Of course, at that point, he could sign another short-term contract and ultimately reach the magical number. But all of this assumes he can keep hitting the baseball like the best player in the game well past his prime years.

Besides 3,000 hits, a lost season also hurts Trouts chances to reach 600 home runs (58% if the 2020 season is played; 48% if it does not), and consequently the next big jump to 700 home runs (17% probability if 2020 is played; only 9% if not).

Mike Trout donates food to New Jersey hospital workers fighting COVID-19

There are more important things to consider about the current situation facing Major League Baseball from a public health standpoint. But if we focus on the distraction the game provides us on the field, a lost 2020 season could prevent some great players from reaching major milestones.

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