Should the Angels extend Andrelton Simmons?

Los Angeles Angels shortstop Andrelton Simmons will be a free agent after the 2020 season, but should the team consider extending his contract?

The first of June is right around the corner, a time when the dog days of summer usually separate the contenders from the pretenders in Major League Baseball. Instead, we continue to wait and see if baseball will survive both Coronavirus and labor strife brought on by the shrinking revenues caused by the delays. But even as we await an indication of what will happen to 2020, we still need to look ahead to what may become of the team after the season, and that includes the fate of Andrelton Simmons.

Regardless of if the season is played or not, contract years will still accrue for MLB players. That means that those players that were originally slated for free agency upon completion of the 2020 season will still be ticketed to be hot stove fodder when winter hits. Simmons, is in the final year of a 7-year, $58 million deal he signed with the Atlanta Braves prior to the 2014 season. The Braves traded him to the Angels in November 2015.

That deal has proved to be club-friendly for the Halos. According to FanGraphs, Simmons has ultimately been worth $118.4 million against the $38 million the Angels have paid him over the last four seasons. Now entering the fifth and final season of his current contract with Anaheim, the Angels must decide whether or not to extend Simmons now or let him test the open market.

The Halos were said to be having internal discussions in regards to offering Simmons an extension as late as March of this year, according to Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register.  It was something the player himself was said to be in favor of a year prior. However, those discussions, like everything else, have been put on hold by the virus and the ensuing negotiation freeze agreed to by both Major League Baseball and the Players’ Association.

While the team and Simmons cannot officially negotiate a new deal, we can certainly take a look at the situation and discuss the pros and cons of maintaining one of the best shortstops in baseball.

Why The Angels should sign Andrelton Simmons to a long-term extension

As previously noted, the Angels have received exceptional value from the trade with Atlanta, seeing Simmons accrue 14.8 fWAR during his time in Anaheim. During that time, he’s managed to hit .280/.327/.396 with 36 home runs, 240 RBI, and a wRC+ of 97, putting him just below league average with the bat.

While his production with the bat has been less than favorable, it hasn’t been outright horrible either. A lot of that value is driven down by a poor power showing at the plate, where he owns an ISO of .116 with the Angels. However, Simmons makes up with that by having the exceptional ability to make contact, as evidenced by his MLB-best strikeout rate of 8.6% since 2016. Also, it is important to note that while his wRC+ of 97 is low, it had increased yearly from 2014 to 2018, before dipping against during an injury-plagued 2019 season.

With all things considered, the value Andrelton Simmons brings to the Angels is and never will be measured with his bat. Rather, Simmons makes his presence felt on the defensive side of the diamond, where is regarded as the best fielding shortstop in baseball. In 4542.2 innings of work at short for the Halos, Simmons has been worth 95 defensive runs saves, a 17.7 UZR/150, and made an incredible 361 plays out-of-zone. The next closest shortstop in the first two categories are Nick Ahmed in DRS (67), Francisco Lindor in UZR/150 (10.9), and he is seventh in OOZ during that span. His DEF rating of 82.3 best Lindor by 13.1 points (69.2).

In terms of potential replacements within the system, the Angels have two highly-rated prospects in Kyren Paris (5th rated) and Arol Vera (10th). However, both are still in Rookie ball and their ETAs are 2023 and 2024 respectively. Neither is close to replacing Simmons in 2021.

Why the Angels should not extend Andrelton Simmons

Most of that value was accrued during the first three seasons of the deal and much of that was gained on the defensive side of the field. An exceptional fielder, Simmons is somewhat of flashback to the days of guys like Omar Vizquel and Ozzie Smith, where the glove-first shortstop was regarded with a value despite what he brought to the team with the bat.

However, there are a few red flags that the Angels will want to be wary of in regards to both.

From a fielding standpoint, while Simmons is still stellar with the glove, 2019 was definitely a slip in that department. His 13.8 UZR/150 and his 12 defensive runs saved were both career-lows, and his 0.5 defensive runs above average barely ranked higher than the mid-range. A lot of that had to do with the ankle injuries he dealt with throughout the year and limited him to just 102 games. With that said, ankle injuries to a shortstop turning 30-years-old are hard to look past.

That all lead back to his offensive numbers. While his value is cast mostly with his glove, if that continues to dip, it will exasperate the perception of his hitting skills. His lack of power is tremendously difficult to overlook, especially during the offensive explosion being seen throughout the league. Simmons’ ISO is 26th lowest among qualifying hitters since 2016 and his hard-hit rate of 30.9% is the 57th lowest among qualifying hitters since 2016. Meanwhile, his soft hit rate of 20.6% is the 43rd highest among qualifying hitters since 2016.

If his production continues to slide, the Angels may be forced to look for either a cheaper solution or possibly look to other free agents for alternatives. In the case of the former, the team does have David Fletcher on the MLB roster. A former shortstop in his own right and a solid fielder, the more affordable Fletcher would be a similar defense-first player, but may not provide much on offense. That could open up space for Luis Rengifo to take over the second base duties.

In terms of potential replacements on the market next winter, both Didi Gregorius and Marcus Semien could be options, and both present offensive upgrades while providing solid defensive productivity. However, neither will represent any cost savings to the Halos either.