Can Angels’ David Fletcher continue to outperform metrics?

Los Angeles Angels infielder David Fletcher is a fan favorite that became a pleasant surprise for the team in 2019, but can he continue his pace?

In his second season with the Los Angeles Angels, David Fletcher did everything right. The ultimate grinder, the infielder filled in where needed, fought through at-bats, and ultimately became a bright spot in a down season.

That showed when Fletcher spent time at five different positions last year and accumulated a batting line of .290/.350/.384 with six home runs, 49 RBI, and 83 runs scored. All and all, he was worth 3.4 wins above replacement, according to FanGraphs.

Now as he enters the 2020 campaign, the sparkplug is again showing his acumen and desire, but this time for a new manager. He’s hit for the cycle already in summer camp, shown his baserunning skills by taking extra bags when opportunities arose, and in doing so, has already won over his new skipper.

Now, summer camp performances need to be taken with a grain of salt. Unlike regular-season action, or even normal spring training situations, summer camp is much more of a controlled environment. Players aren’t going all out to make impressions, as most are simply trying to get reps in a shortened training period. Still, what Fletcher does day-in and day-out, regardless of the atmosphere, is a reminder of the player he is and what he brings to this Angels team.

The question on everyone’s mind is a simple one. Can David Fletcher repeat or improve on his 2019 campaign or is regression likely?

We are going to try and take a look at both cases.

Will Angels’ David Fletcher improve in 2020?

When the pundits look at David Fletcher, they point to all the things he does right on the field. He hustles, he shows exceptional knowledge of the game, and most importantly, he puts the bat on the ball.

It’s the latter point that we as fans like to call attention to, and rightfully so, as Fletcher was among the best in baseball at putting the ball in play. He finished with the second-lowest strikeout rate of qualified batters in 2019, checking in at 9.8% during a time when whiffs are on the rise. But it goes so much further than that.

According to FanGraphs, Fletcher led all of baseball in making contact with pitches he swung at in the strike zone (Z-contact%), doing so 96.1% of the time. Likewise, he was first overall in standard contact and out of zone contact, with 91.1% Contact% and 82.6% O-Contact%. In fact, Fletcher led all of baseball by minimizing his swinging strikes (SwStr%) to just 3.2%.

From a metrics standpoint, according to StatCast, Fletcher ranked in the 100% percentile in terms of Whiff%, 98th percentile in xBA (expected batting average), and the 94th percentile in outs above average. That puts him among the elite hitters in the game in terms of putting the ball into play.

While Fletcher was ultimately worth 3.4 fWAR on the season, most of that value was derived via his glove. He graded out above average at every position he saw time in 2019, with the exception of right field. However, he’s likely going to be limited to infield work in 2020, where had had UZR/150s of 10.9 (2B), 7.4 (3B), and 10.5 (SS).

Retaining that positional versatility and efficiency, as well as staying within himself with the bat, Fletcher can continue to be a useful piece in the Angels lineup. The team will undoubtedly love to see him add more power in 2020, but obviously don’t want to sacrifice his elite contact skills to do so. His growth as a player may depend on the need to barrel up more balls.

Will Angels’ David Fletcher regress in 2020?

If contact was a friend to David Fletcher, barrels and hard contact were not. Of course, he got by just fine without those thanks to his hustle and an exceptional placement, allowing for a .317 BABIP.

But how long can the infielder get by without hard contact?

In 2019, Fletcher had the eleventh-lowest hard-hit percentage in baseball, checking in at 32.2% and had the nineteenth-lowest fly-ball rate at 29.6%. That led to the league’s second-lowest HR/FB ratio of 3.8%.

Now, he’s not paid to hit home runs, Fletcher still managed to pop out six dingers, and added 30 doubles and four triples to the mix, so he wasn’t simply a singles hitter. However, StatCast wasn’t a huge fan of his quality of contact. While Fletcher ranked 3rd in baseball with 534 batted balls events last season, StatCast only gave him credit for two barrels or 0.4%. That ranked him in the bottom 2% of the league, or with the fifth-lowest in baseball. Likewise, his average exit velocity of 83.7mph had him ranked with the 9th lowest.

It’s easy to play off barrels, exit velocity, and hard-hit rates as the latest stat fads, but they also speak to the quality of contact a batter is making. Based on that information, Fletcher likely played above his expectations in 2019. However, it wasn’t as much as one would expect. While his contact stats produced an xSLG (expected slugging percentage) of .380, Fletcher was only slightly higher at .384.

From an area of improvement standpoint, it looks like Fletcher’s biggest point is where he contacts the baseball. He is topping 35.5% of his batted balls, compared to hitting the bottom half at 26.1%. With his current rate of success, you don’t necessarily want him to get caught up in the launch angle rage, but they correlate to his exit velocity.

If there is any other indicator toward regression that stands out more than his quality of contact, it is the simple matter of playing time. While Fletcher held his own in 2019, the Angels filled one hole in the infield by adding top free agent Anthony Rendon. That leaves Fletcher likely sharing playing time with Tommy La Stella at second base, or perhaps seeing occasional starts at first as needed. That will limit at-bats and opportunities for improvement or rhythm.