Angels face multiple scenarios with Dylan Bundy decision

Will the Angels look to trade Dylan Bundy over the winter?

The 2020 MLB Trade Deadline brought with it a cloud of uncertainty. Between the expanded postseason casting concerns of legitimacy over a potential World Series winner and the murky financial state of the game after 2020 losses are added up, left a lot of questions as to how the deadline would be handled.

Stuck in the middle were the Los Angeles Angels and Dylan Bundy. While Bundy had increased his trade value decidedly heading into the deadline, there were always going to be concerns over whether it was a flash in the pan or not. As such, teams may have questioned the need to mortgage their farm systems on such a gamble.

Instead, the Angels were the ones left holding the cards. While not finding a deal he felt was substantial enough to flip Bundy, Billy Eppler may have instead opted to push his chips into the pot on the hopes that the pitcher maintains his momentum for the next month of 2020.

If that happens, there is a chance that the Angels will market Bundy this winter, when they can argue that his trade value is higher and potentially seek a larger return. The pool of interested teams could also grow, as those teams that waited to determine their financial commitments have a clearer picture on 2021.

Maybe a team with some bigger contracts coming off the books steps up. Perhaps a young team in need of a few pieces puts their foot on the gas. Those teams will arguably be in a better position to offer a larger package in the offseason than they were in for a throw-away postseason run. As such, Eppler could be betting on finding a better deal this winter than he found on August 31st.

If that isn’t the direction, perhaps…

Should the Angels explore an extension for Dylan Bundy?

While the perception of a future deal may hang over Dylan Bundy into the offseason, there is of course one way to put some of that talk to rest. If the Angels want to prove that Dylan Bundy is part of the bigger picture moving forward, the time is not to strike on a potential extension.

At 27-years-old, Bundy has one final go at salary arbitration this winter before he hits free agency following the 2021 season. While he’s due for a raise over the prorated $5 million he’ll earn in 2020, there is little belief that it will be a significant increase after the shortened season and looming financial uncertainty around the game.

With those pieces on the table, perhaps the timing is right to discuss a long-term extension with the right-hander, before his value increases any further. The Angels could feasibly swoop in with an offer that is both to his liking and provides the team with some financial flexibility over the next few seasons so that they can add further pieces.

Just spit-balling a little here, but let’s say the Angels offer to buy out Bundy’s final year of arbitration, along with the first two seasons of his free agency, and maybe even throw in an option year taking it through his age-32 season. If they offer a $12 million per annul price tag, that may convince Bundy to sign on the dotted line.

That kind of deal provides him with stability after years of seeing his arbitration weighed down by poor performances. Additionally, it is a below-market price tag for a solid rotation piece in today’s game, allowing the Angels to explore other options down the road.

However, there is one third and final option…

What’s next for the Angels and Dylan Bundy? Push the gamble further.

Okay, let’s pretend for a moment that yesterday’s decision to not trade Dylan Bundy had absolutely no subtext to it at all. There is no long-term plan in place for the right-hander, whether it be to trade him or to extend him.

Now what?

With the Angels holding one final season of arbitration control over Bundy’s services, the Halos could opt to simply ride out the remainder of the 2020 season and then tender the right-hander a contract. At that stage, they then need to come to an agreement over what his services were worth in 2020, likely leading to a potentially contentious discussion on valuation during a shortened season.

Once all that is said and done, the Angels will then watch to see if Bundy can replicate his production over a full season. Instead of being exposed to hitters who had a short ramp-up to the season, he’ll have to answer to big leaguers who had a full spring to warm up. Additionally, he’ll be exposed to more teams, as regional play goes away.

The potential for regression will always be an issue for Bundy, given his past performance. However, there is also the potential that he’s figured it out. If he proves that on a walk year, he potentially costs the team a lot more money or opts for free agency altogether.

Of course, the Angels could extend Bundy a qualifying offer following the 2021 season, but that comes with a likely price tag closer to $20 million. Despite his growth this season, I’m not sure he’s a $20 million per season pitcher.

And then there is the chance that he declines it and all the Angels recoup is a draft pick instead. Will that be worth the gamble of not signing him long-term or finding a trade partner with more proven pieces?

Regardless of the direction the Angels go, Dylan Bundy will continue to represent a gamble for the team. However, this is one which they desperately need to come out on the winning side.