Angels will cost Mike Trout his fourth MVP award

Despite being one of the top players in the league in 2020, the Angels’ Mike Trout is on the outside looking in on the MVP hunt.

Entering the 2020 season, Mike Trout was the defending American League MVP and had captured the honor three times during his first eight full seasons. With the addition of Anthony Rendon behind him in the Angels lineup, it seemed to be an almost shoo-in that Trout would be a favorite for the award again this season.

Well, not so fast.

For his part, Trout has done what he can to be his name into the hat for consideration. He’s slashing .295/.400/.630 with a wRC+ of 170, a wOBA of .419, and a 2.4 fWAR, along with the more traditional stats of 16 home runs and 42 RBI in 46 games played. Despite the shortened year, Trout has again been among baseball’s brightest stars, putting himself in a position to be only the second player ever to claim four or more MVP awards (Bonds – 7).

While not his normal greatness, Trout’s performance in 2020 still ranks favorably amongst his MVP seasons. He’s on par with all the major markers that have set his career years apart from the field in the past.

However, the issue here is that the 60-game schedule hasn’t created the normal spread of the field that you see in a full season. Trout’s normal greatness is now paired with numerous other contenders that have parlayed their fantastic runs in 2020, some through consistency and others through massive hot streaks.

With all that in mind, let’s take a look at the MVP race and Mike Trout’s place in it.

Why Mike Trout won’t win the American League MVP in 2020

Needless to say, the 60-game schedule has not done much to separate the field of MVP contenders. There are plenty of players that can turn a hot final week-plus of the season into either pulling away or adding their names to the list of potential picks.

While that means that Mike Trout is among the contenders and could summon all the dad strength for one final push, it also means that the final surge may mean little to voters.

With voting subjective to both new school and old school voters among the BBWAA members, the fact is that a tight field works against Mike Trout’s chances of claiming his fourth MVP award. When statistics don’t separate the field, there is only one thing that has been a common thread among voters, and most specifically those that aren’t as metric-orientated.

Winning is a big piece of the puzzle.

While the MVP is an individual award, voters have shown a propensity for awarding bonus points to those that play on winning teams. There are obvious exceptions to that rule (see Jacob DeGrom), but in those cases, there was one player that stood heads above the rest of the field. In a year where one player doesn’t lap the field, winning will be weighted heavier in favor of those that are one of the lucky few.

Unfortunately, for Mike Trout and the Angels, wins have been few and far between in 2020, through no fault of his own.

At this stage in the season, Trout’s best chances are if he goes on an absolute tear to close the year. Even then he needs to hope for Anderson and Abreu to split the votes and for LeMahieu or Bieber to slip.

That may be a lot to ask in such a short window.