Angels will cost Mike Trout his fourth MVP award

Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)
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Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (Photo by Michael Zagaris/Oakland Athletics/Getty Images)
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (Photo by Michael Zagaris/Oakland Athletics/Getty Images) /

Despite being one of the top players in the league in 2020, the Angels’ Mike Trout is on the outside looking in on the MVP hunt.

Entering the 2020 season, Mike Trout was the defending American League MVP and had captured the honor three times during his first eight full seasons. With the addition of Anthony Rendon behind him in the Angels lineup, it seemed to be an almost shoo-in that Trout would be a favorite for the award again this season.

Well, not so fast.

For his part, Trout has done what he can to be his name into the hat for consideration. He’s slashing .295/.400/.630 with a wRC+ of 170, a wOBA of .419, and a 2.4 fWAR, along with the more traditional stats of 16 home runs and 42 RBI in 46 games played. Despite the shortened year, Trout has again been among baseball’s brightest stars, putting himself in a position to be only the second player ever to claim four or more MVP awards (Bonds – 7).

While not his normal greatness, Trout’s performance in 2020 still ranks favorably amongst his MVP seasons. He’s on par with all the major markers that have set his career years apart from the field in the past.

However, the issue here is that the 60-game schedule hasn’t created the normal spread of the field that you see in a full season. Trout’s normal greatness is now paired with numerous other contenders that have parlayed their fantastic runs in 2020, some through consistency and others through massive hot streaks.

With all that in mind, let’s take a look at the MVP race and Mike Trout’s place in it.

Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox (Photo by Ron Vesely/Getty Images)
Jose Abreu, Chicago White Sox (Photo by Ron Vesely/Getty Images) /

Outside of Mike Trout, who are the AL MVP Candidates in 2020?

As mentioned, the AL MVP field is fairly crowded. While Trout featured prominently among the leaders, he is not alone in the group. There is a healthy group of new horses in the field that could represent some serious competition.

Tim Anderson – Shortstop, Chicago White Sox

After a few seasons of solid, but not spectacular production in his first few seasons in the league, Anderson took to his prime in 2019. At the age of 26, the animated shortstop hit a league-best .335 with 18 home runs, 56 RBI, 130 wRC+, and a 3.5 fWAR.

Many were curious if he could maintain that production in 2020, but Anderson opted to take it a step further. Through 40 games, he’s slashing .365/.401/.582 with eight home runs, 41 runs scored, a 168 wRC+, and a 2.3 fWAR.

Jose Abreu – First Baseman, Chicago White Sox

Like Anderson, Jose Abreu has flown a bit under the radar over the past few seasons. After winning the Rookie of the Year in 2014, he’s been relatively steady in the ensuing campaigns and even won the RBI crown in 2019. Coupled with Anderson, Eloy Jimenez, Yoan Moncada, and Luis Robert, the Pale Hose has built a solid core and it’s easy to see why they have a ton of buzz around the team.

2020 has been completely off the hook for Abreu though. Through 50 games, he’s slashing a ridiculous .332/.374/.644 with 17 home runs, 51 RBI, and a wRC+ of 173. From an offensive standpoint, he may be authoring the most complete season of any hitter in the American League.

DJ LeMahieu – Second Baseman, New York Yankees

Generally speaking, it isn’t every day that a player sees offensive improvements by moving away from Coors Field, but DJ LeMahieu certainly found the exception at Yankee Stadium. At the age of 30, he burst into MVP talks last season and finished fourth in the voting after hitting .327/.375/.518 with a career-best 26 home runs, 109 runs scored, 102 RBI, and a wRC+ of 136.

As is the running theme of this year’s candidates, that was just the start. LeMahieu hit 2020 like a man playing for his next contract (he is). In 40 games, he slashing .373/.426/.614 with 10 home runs, 37 runs, 20 RBI, and a 187 wRC+. Given the Yankees injury issues throughout 2020, his performance is a huge reason they are in postseason contention.

Shane Bieber – Starting Pitcher, Cleveland Indians

While Dylan Bundy has been a tremendous find for the pitching poor Angels in 2020, there is one reason he won’t stand a chance in the AL Cy Young race. Shane Bieber has that wrapped up and deserves some MVP consideration as well.

In a season where good pitching has been hard to find around the league, the right-handed Bieber has been outstanding. Over 72.1 innings of work, he owns an 8-1 record, a 1.74 ERA, a 2.14 FIP, and a 13.94 K/9. His 2.9 fWAR is nearly half a win higher than the next closest player in the league, both hitters and pitchers.

Honorable Mentions: Luke Voit (Yankees), Anthony Rendon (Angels), Brandon Lowe (Rays), Nelson Cruz (Twins).

Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images)
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (Photo by John McCoy/Getty Images) /

Why Mike Trout won’t win the American League MVP in 2020

Needless to say, the 60-game schedule has not done much to separate the field of MVP contenders. There are plenty of players that can turn a hot final week-plus of the season into either pulling away or adding their names to the list of potential picks.

While that means that Mike Trout is among the contenders and could summon all the dad strength for one final push, it also means that the final surge may mean little to voters.

With voting subjective to both new school and old school voters among the BBWAA members, the fact is that a tight field works against Mike Trout’s chances of claiming his fourth MVP award. When statistics don’t separate the field, there is only one thing that has been a common thread among voters, and most specifically those that aren’t as metric-orientated.

Winning is a big piece of the puzzle.

While the MVP is an individual award, voters have shown a propensity for awarding bonus points to those that play on winning teams. There are obvious exceptions to that rule (see Jacob DeGrom), but in those cases, there was one player that stood heads above the rest of the field. In a year where one player doesn’t lap the field, winning will be weighted heavier in favor of those that are one of the lucky few.

Unfortunately, for Mike Trout and the Angels, wins have been few and far between in 2020, through no fault of his own.

At this stage in the season, Trout’s best chances are if he goes on an absolute tear to close the year. Even then he needs to hope for Anderson and Abreu to split the votes and for LeMahieu or Bieber to slip.

Next. How much better is Mike Trout than the rest of his draft class?

That may be a lot to ask in such a short window.

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