Trevor Bauer vs. Marcus Stroman: Who is the Better Fit For the Angels?

Is it realistic to expect the Los Angeles Angels will sign both Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman, or will they need to make a choice between the two?

Other than rewatching Mike Trout highlights, one of the most exciting things for a baseball fan during the offseason is free agency. It gives teams a chance to acquire proven players without blowing up the farm system, and it gives fans a chance to wildly speculate about who their favorite team will sign.

All that begins on November 2nd, when free agency officially begins. The Angels are expected to be entrenched in the pitching market. So anytime you read a rumor about a free agent pitcher, you will most likely see the Angels linked in one way or another.

Last season, the Angels were considered a finalist for Gerrit Cole, who was the top pitcher on the market. Cole ended up signing with the Yankees for a record-breaking $324 million over 9 years. It has been said that the Angels had the next best offer, but was just shy of the $300 million threshold. The Angels are expected to once again be in the mix for the top players this offseason.

The two biggest pitching names coming up in free agency are Trevor Bauer and Marcus Stroman, both of which have already been linked to the Angels in rumors. These rumors haven’t spurred out of anywhere either. They have been fueled by both the players themselves. With Bauer making a plea to Angels fans on Twitter to convince him that the Angels are a good fit for him, and Stroman engaging Angels fans with a “you never know“, it’s clear both players are open to the idea of dawning the halo.

After firing Billy Eppler, the Angels are currently on the search for a new GM. Anytime someone new takes over a team, they will want to make a good first impression. They will most likely work hard to sign Bauer and/or Stroman to improve their team.

The Angels have a desperate need for pitching, however, this is not a niche problem for big league clubs. Every team could use upgrades to their rotation, which means that quality starting pitching comes at a premium, and that is reflected in large hauls for traded aces and large paychecks for free agents. These two players will garner high interest from virtually every club who can pay. So it is not realistic to expect that the Angels will sign both Bauer and Stroman.

So, if the Angels can only pick one, who should it be? In this potentially real hypothetical situation, I evaluate both Bauer and Stroman and decide which one will make a better fit for the team, if the Angels are forced to choose one.

Angels Free Agent Target: Trevor Bauer

Bauer’s agent Rachel Luba is just as outspoken as he is. Perhaps in an attempt to broaden the interest from teams, and ensure a bidding war, she put out a tweet that walked back Bauer’s previous statements;

So what exactly would a contract for Bauer look like? In a tweet response to Gary Sheffield Jr., she told him that a contract of 3 years/$85 million wasn’t good enough. It has been speculated that a one-year deal could see Bauer get a yearly salary of close to $40 million, as it would erase any long-term risk for a team. If Bauer opens up to the idea of more security and opts for a multi-year deal, SNY’s John Harper speculates based on conversations he’s had with team executives that he could wind up with a contract similar to Strasburg’s 7 year/$245 million deal.

“Nobody’s going (to do) nine years for Bauer. He should be in the Strasburg range, but there’s a lot of uncertainty because of the Covid-environment and the revenue teams lost, so it’s hard to say for sure.”

Trevor Bauer will turn 30 years old in January, which would make him the oldest member of the Angels rotation. Not only would Bauer bring elite performance with him, but having a pitcher in the leadership role with Bauer’s pedigree would only benefit the rest of the rotation. Although Bauer has never won a ring, he has made it to the playoffs 4 times. Leading the Indians to the World Series in 2016, where they ultimately lost to the Cubs. With the Angels looking to finally get back into the postseason, having someone with Bauer’s experience aboard will be a needed addition.
Per Sportrac, The Angels are projected to be $76 million below the competitive balance tax threshold, which means that despite the large contracts to Mike Trout, Albert Pujols, Anthony Rendon, and Justin Upton, they still have room to be in the mix for top of the line talent. Whether Bauer wants a 1-year deal or a multi-year deal, the Angels should be able to make it work.
Bauer seems like a good fit for the Angels. He is looking for a competitive team and the Angels are expecting to compete. When thinking of financials, Bauer will definitely make more in free agency than Stroman. Would a cheaper rotation option allow the Angels more freedom to sign more players that would improve their team? Let’s take a look at the case for Stroman.

Angels Free Agent Target: Marcus Stroman

Stroman has not thrown a pitch in the majors since September 27, 2019, as he didn’t play this past season due to an early calf muscle tear and then later opting-out over Covid concerns. However, in the 2019 season, he was named to the all-star team while spending time playing for the Toronto Blue Jays (21 games) and New York Mets (11 games). In that season, he pitched to the tune of a 3.22 ERA, 1.307 WHIP, 3.72 FIP, 7.8 K/9 over 184.1 innings.

That all-star nod will most likely be Stroman’s most important negotiating tool, and with a relatively thin free agent starting pitcher class, it is likely to work in Stroman’s favor. While Stroman will be expecting a big raise from his 2019 salary of $12 million, it will most likely be considerably south of Bauer’s projected salary. This will factor into the decision of which player to sign (in this hypothetical).

Stroman’s career statistics against AL West teams (excluding the Angels) is decent but slightly worse than Bauer, as AL West opponent hitters have registered a slash line of .278/.331/.386. While it’s a set of unreliable numbers, these numbers tell a story and are fairly consistent with his career stats. While the batting average is on the wrong side of .250, he limits hitters from extra-bases.

A reason for that is Stroman’s prolific ability to induce ground balls. Over the course of his career, he has recorded a ground ball percentage of 58.6%, which puts him as the 3rd ranked starting pitcher in the category from 2014-2019 behind just Dallas Keuchel and Luis Perdomo. Although the Angels are not expected to re-sign defensive whiz Andrelton Simmons, they still have one of the best infields in the league, headlined by David Fletcher and Anthony Rendon. It remains to be seen how the Angels will fill the hole in the infield, whether it be with internal options or bringing in outside help, regardless of the direction they go, the Angels infield will still be a force in the league, making Stroman a good fit.

Like Bauer, Stroman will turn 30 next season, which would also make him the oldest member of the Angels rotation. Stroman also brings postseason experience to the team, having led the Blue Jays to the AL Championship Series in both 2015 and 2016.