Angels: 3 potential breakout candidates for 2021

Which Angels players are most likely to have a breakout season in 2021?

Coming off their 5th straight losing season, and Mike Trout getting a year older, the Angels are desperate for success in 2021. In all likelihood, Newly hired GM Perry Minasian will look for external help via free agency and/or trades to address some glaring needs (ahem, pitching). While that outside help is definitely needed, the Angels will also have to rely on the players they already have to either step up or continue their success.

It’s always an inevitability that some players will emerge as top contributors out of nowhere, and every offseason it’s fun to predict which players will have a breakout season. In 2020, The Angels had several players who performed better than expected. Dylan Bundy solidified himself as the ace of the rotation; David Fletcher secured himself a spot at the top of the batting order and starting lineup; Jared Walsh, forced his way into everyday playing time and first-baseman of the future conversations; and Mike Mayers dominated out of the pen and is now the favorite for the closer role.

Looking toward 2021, the Angels have a few players who have a good chance at exceeding their projections. Let’s take a look, shall we?

Jaime Barria

This one may be a controversial take, as Jaime Barria has already technically had a breakout season. During his rookie season in 2018, he had a record of 10-9 and posted a 3.41 ERA, 1.268 WHIP, 4.58 FIP, and a 6.8 K/9 over 129.1 innings pitched. However, the following season he had regressed significantly, posting a record of 4-10 with a 6.42 ERA, 1.440 WHIP, and a 6.23 FIP over 82.2 innings pitched. Since then he has been strapped for opportunities, being removed from the rotation and sent down to AAA and recalled for sporadic spot starts. In 2021 however, Barria has the skillset to potentially breakout and solidify himself as a legitimate member of the Angels rotation.

A lot has to occur for that to happen. As it currently stands, according to the Angels’ depth chart on Fangraphs, Barria is listed as the fifth starter. However, they currently do not have Shohei Ohtani listed despite his expectation to rejoin the rotation next season. If Maddon intends to go with a 6-man rotation, Barria would fill that sixth spot. However (yes, another one), the Angels’ are expected to be entrenched in the pitching market this offseason, potentially signing one or two top free agent starters. Even on his first day on the job, Perry Minasian echoed that sentiment.

If and when the Angels add pieces to the rotation, Barria would most likely be the odd man out. Being an Angels fan most of my life, I know seasons don’t always go according to plan, in fact, they almost never do. The opening day rotation seldom remains intact for the duration of the long season. If an Angels starter goes down with an injury or underperforms, Barria could slide in and potentially force his way into future conversations.

Another way Barria could get an opportunity is if the Angels fail to sign or acquire quality starting pitching. In fact, two of the big names have already exited the already thin market, as Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman have both accepted their qualifying offers. Once the riot of Angels fans cools down, and Angel Stadium is rebuilt, fans might actually grow to love Barria. Although I wouldn’t recommend the Angels go this route, I will probably actually join that riot. Minasian has a tough offseason ahead of him, but it is almost a guarantee that they will emerge on the other side with 1 or 2 new starting pitching arms, leaving Barria’s only chance to prove himself in the case of an injury.

Given the Angels’ history of bad starting pitching health luck, it is unfortunately likely that one or more may go down for a significant period of time. Obviously, that would be terrible, but Angels fans should be assured that they have a solid option in Barria and that he is ready to have a breakout season if given the opportunity.

Barria had very limited chances in the shortened 2020 campaign (5 starts, 2 relief appearances, and 32.1 innings), and in which he put up respectable numbers, a 3.62 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 3.65 FIP, and 7.5 K/9. While still a small sample size, the numbers are promising and show he is ready to put his sophomore slump behind him.

If everything aligns in Barria’s favor, he would be a solid asset to the back of the rotation. The strikeout numbers aren’t elite, but they are definitely respectable for a starting pitcher. What impresses me most about Barria is his ability to miss barrels. Opposing hitters only found barrel against him 3.2% of the time, which puts him in the top 6% of the league. Looking deeper into his statcast numbers, it suggests he was even better than his 2020 numbers. His expected weighted on-base average (.254 xwOBA), expected earned runs against (2.90 xERA), and expected weighted on-base average on contact (.285 xwOBACON) are elite and puts him within the top 9% of the league. Just for reference, his xwOBA puts him ahead of Christian Javier, Brandon Woodruff, Max Fried, Yu Darvish, and yes, even Dylan Bundy.

Whatever direction the Angels decide to go in this offseason, I just hope one way or another that Barria is given a shot. I truly believe he is due for a legitimate breakout season and is able to cement his position in the Angels rotation for years to come.

Kenyan Middleton

Much like Barria, Angels reliever Keynan Middleton enjoyed a solid rookie season. In 2017, he made a name for himself, posting a 3.86 ERA, 1.337 WHIP, 4.38 FIP, and 9.7 K/9 over 58.1 innings pitched. What differentiates Middleton from Barria is that he never had a sophomore slump, instead, he has battled injuries ever since. Over the last three seasons, he has only pitched a total of 37.1 innings. In 2018, he dealt with right elbow inflammation which led to him undergoing Tommy John Surgery.

In 2020, Middleton was healthy but logged only 12 innings of work. His poor performance led to him spending a significant portion of the season at the Alternate Site. In his limited chances, he compiled a 5.25 ERA, 1.500 WHIP, 5.02 FIP, and 8.3 K/9, a far cry from his rookie campaign.

On the surface, the numbers don’t scream breakout potential. However, it is indeed just a small sample size, and looking deeper there is a reason for optimism. His primary pitch is his fastball, in which he throws 59% of the time. Coming off Tommy John Surgery in 2019, his fastball averaged only 94.1 mph, which is a significant drop off from the 96.9 mph in his rookie year. This season, he was able to build that strength back up and record an average velocity of 97.1 mph. Throwing harder than he did before TJ, even if it is only a 0.02 mph increase, is definitely promising. If he continues on that trajectory and continues to throw in the upper-90s, it would make his off-speed pitches all the more lethal, and he should be a force in the bullpen and may even see some 9th inning action in 2021.

With Cam Bedrosian electing free agency, Middleton is slated to begin the season in the big-league bullpen. Unlike Barria, Middleton will have his chance to prove himself from the get-go. If Middleton can dominate from the onset, like his stuff would suggest he can, he will have a breakout season and prove he’s capable of high-leverage situations.

A lot is at stake this season for Middleton. Not only does he have to impress the coaching staff to trust him more, but he also has to impress the Angels’ fanbase as well. On July 30th, after the Angels bullpen blew a 4-1 lead, giving up 8 runs, he made a series of tweets disrespecting Angels fans, inferring that they were trash-talking on Twitter. This caused major backlash, with some fans demanding they trade the fireballer. It remains to be seen whether or not Middleton will use this as motivation moving forward, but it could be a chip on his shoulder.

Middleton has the stuff to have a legitimate breakout. In a full season, with full health, and an opportunity to prove himself right away, I expect him to grab the chance and run with it. I don’t believe he will beat out Mike Mayers for the closing job, but he may force his way into a setup role, and show that he can be more than reliable in the future, winning back the hearts of many Angels fans.