LA Angels: Taking a look at the division rival Houston Astros

Around the Diamond

Lineup

1. Jose Altuve, 2B
2. Kyle Tucker, RF
3. Alex Bregman, 3B
4. Yordan Alvarez, DH
5. Carlos Correa, SS
6. Yuli Gurriel, 1B
7. Myles Straw, CF
8. Chas McCormick, LF
9. Martin Maldonado, C

Projected Bench

1. Garrett Stubbs, C
2. Abraham Toro, INF
3. Aledmys Diaz, INF/OF
4. Taylor Jones, INF/OF

Inside Look

The subtraction of 3 stud starting outfielders is going to greatly impact the lineup production in 2021. In 2020, Springer (14), Brantley (5), and Reddick (4) combined for 23 of the team’s 69 home runs, 33% of the teams home run total. With budding superstar Kyle Tucker being the only established player in the current projected opening day outfield, look for the Astros to make one or two moves to reinforce this ginormous question mark as opening day approaches, including the possibility of re-signing Brantley to a one or two year deal.

A healthy Yordan Alvarez will continue to be a force in the middle of the lineup for years to come, including 2021, as the 23 year old has 5 years of team control left on his contract. A dominant infield compiled of Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Alex Bregman is still one of the best infields in all of baseball, and will certainly help to minimize the outfield production drop.

With Carlos Correa and Martin Maldonado both in their walk years, rumors of potential trade discussions have been circling, and it is possible that the Astros take a much larger step back than anticipated. For any team, subtracting a bat and outfield presence like George Springer is going to hurt production, but the Astros have the luxury of having multiple stars on their roster that should help to soften the blow.

Player Highlight: Kyle Tucker

2020 Statistics: .268 AVG, .325 OBP, .512 SLG, 9 HR, 42 RBIs, 58 G, 1.6 WAR

2021 Outlook: Kyle Tucker was the 5th overall pick of the Astros in 2015, and was one of the top ranked prospects from draft day until he exceeded his rookie limits in 2019. Tucker took about 150 plate appearances to get comfortable at the major league level, and has been getting better month after month since. With 3 established outfielders leaving Houston this offseason, look for Kyle Tucker to have a true breakout campaign in 2021 and carry the Astros outfield.

On the Mound

Starting Rotation

Zack Greinke
Framber Valdez
Lance McCullers Jr
Jose Urquidy
Cristian Javier
Justin Verlander*

Inside Look

The Astros rotation in 2020 was good enough to get them to game 7 of the ALCS against the Tampa Bay Rays, pitching to the tune of a 4.31 ERA during the regular season – 13th in the league. A young core of starters with postseason experience is something that the Astros can hang their hat on in 2021, and with Forrest Whitley lurking on the horizon, there is reason for Houston fans to be optimistic.

Specifically, Framber Valdez was a nice surprise for the Astros in 2020 as he pitched to the tune of a 3.57 ERA over 11 games and 70.2 IP, averaging 9.7 K/9. Valdez, Uruidy, and Javier all have 5 years of control left on their contracts, given them exciting pieces to build around for the future. However, Justin Verlander is 3 months removed from Tommy John surgery, and although it is rumored that he wants to pitch in 2021, it is unlikely that he’ll be anything close to the ace we have come to know over the past 15 years.

Given that the rotation is not losing any major pieces, expect 2021 to look fairly similar to the staff we saw in 2020, but with Lance McCullers, Zack Greinke, and Justin Verlander all in their walk years, the group is most likely going to be broken up very soon.

Player Highlight: Lance McCullers Jr.

2020 Statistics: 3-3 W/L, 55 IP, 56 IP, 3.93 ERA, 3.70 FIP, 1.16 WHIP

2021 Outlook: The 27 year old McCullers has had one of the best curveballs in the league since being called up in 2015, but an injury ridden career has left Houston fans and the front office wanting more from their 6’1 right hander. McCullers has never made more than 22 starts in a season, and has topped out at 128 IP for most innings pitching in 2018. With Justin Verlander expected to be on the shelf for most of, if not all of 2021, the Astros are going to need veteran leadership and an expanded work load from McCullers in his free agent walk year.

In the Pen

Bullpen

Ryan Pressly
Enoli Paredes
Blake Taylor
Brooks Raley
Andre Scrubb
Cionel Perez
Austin Pruitt
Josh James*

Inside Look

Much like their rotation, the Astros will be returning many of their key bullpen pieces from 2020. Ryan Pressley is expected to return as their closer in 2020 after posting a 3.43 ERA over 21 IP and converting 12 of 16 save opportunities in 2020.

Strong performances from Andre Scrubb, Blake Taylor, and Enoli Parades in 2020 give the Astros enough confidence to not have to be overly active in free agency or trade talks, however it is possible that the front office picks up an arm or two to supplement their current bullpen.

Roberto Osuna, a key piece to the Astros bullpen success in 2018 and 2019, dealt with injury in 2020 and will head to free agency looking for a team to roll the dice on his supposedly healthy elbow. Osuna threw 65 innings in 2019, averaging 10.11 K/9 and a 2.63 ERA over 38 saves. That kind of production isn’t easily found, and although he was a limited contributor in 2020, the bullpen will certainly miss his late-inning success.

Less notably, Chris Devenski, Brad Peacock, and Joe Biagini will all head to free agency as well.

Player Highlight : Andre Scrubb

2020 Statistics: 1-0 W/L, 23 2/3 IP, 24 K, 1.90 ERA, 1.48 WHIP

2021 Outlook: Scrubb saw his first bit of major league action in 2020, and much to the pleasant surprise of the Astros, he burst on to the scene with a 1.90 ERA in 23.2 innings. Although he struggled with walks as many rookies do, he was a welcomed addition with Roberto Osuna and Chris Devinski both going down with injury. It will be extremely interesting to see if Scrubb is able to continue his success in a full season, or if 2020 was a rarity and he will come back down to earth.

On the Farm

Top 5

Forrest Whitley (#17 overall)

Freudis Nova

Bryan Abreu

Jeremy Pena

Korey Lee

For years in the middle of the decade, the Astros year after year produced one of the top farm systems in the MLB. Now entering 2021 and having graduating many of their top prospects, the Astros farm system is one of the least promising in the league. At the conclusion of 2020, Forrest Whitley was the only member of the farm system to rank in the MLB’s top 100 prospects. In addition, the Astros had to forfeit their first two draft picks in both 2020 and 2021 as a result of their sign stealing scandal, thus decreasing the likeliness of reinforcements coming anytime soon.

Player Highlight: Forrest Whitley, RHP

2021 Outlook: Whitley was taken 17th overall in the 2016 and has been ranked at the top of the Astros farm system for 4 years now. After dealing with various oblique, lat, and shoulder injuries, Whitley seems to finally be healthy and ready to make an impact at the major league level. Whitley mixes 5 pitches into his repertoire that all grade as plus or better, including a mid to high 90s fastball, a best-in-the minors changeup, late-biting curveball, wipeout slider, and maybe the best of the bunch, a wicked cutter that cuts hard into lefties. Should Whitley be able to stay healthy and limit his walks, the nastiness of his pure stuff alone should allow him to pitch at the top of the rotation for years to come. Look for Whitley to break into the Astros rotation in the summer of 2021.