LA Angels: 3 reasons to pursue a Luis Castillo trade

Argument over Bauer

Luis Castillo is very good, but is he more worth acquiring than Trevor Bauer? I would say yes. Although he will cost some of the Angels best prospects to acquire, he will be much more cost effective for the Angels which would benefit them greatly. The Pujols contract, although it is almost over, would make adding Trevor Bauer’s rumored $30 million or more tough to swallow. In some circles, Luis Castillo’s 2020 was viewed as better than Trevor Bauer’s which there is definitely a case for.

While Trevor Bauer’s ERA was 1.73, his FIP and xFIP were 2.88 and 3.25 respectively, Castillo on the other hand had a less impressive ERA of 3.21 but his FIP and xFIP were better than Bauer’s with a 2.65 FIP and a 2.82 xFIP. Luis Castillo also has been a better pitcher over the last few years than Trevor Bauer. Castillo was better by ERA, FIP, and xFIP in 2017 and 2019, while also being comparable to Bauer’s 2020 National League Cy Young campaign. Castillo is a year younger and will be much cheaper for the next three years and should be at least comparable to Bauer statistically.

Luis Castillo has gotten better each and every year in the big leagues and that trend is showing no signs of stopping. Castillo has had the privilege of working with Derek Johnson, Caleb Cotham, and Driveline Baseball guru Kyle Boddy in Cincinnati. If he can use some of his knowledge to help other pitchers in Anaheim, that’s even more of a plus. The Angels are not among the most analytical teams in the sport, but that could change with someone who knows the ins and outs.

Stuff

Luis Castillo has some of the best stuff in the major leagues, which is why it makes sense that his numbers are so good. His changeup is one of the best in the majors getting a 40.1% whiff rate on the changeup in 2020, that was not an outlier either, he had a even better whiff rate in 2019 at 48%. He uses his changeup the most out of all of his four pitches, just more than his four-seam fastball. This has happened over the years, because in 2017 he threw his four-seam 46.6% of the time compared to his 27% usage in 2020.

His usage of the sinker has also climbed, which is a good contrast to the four-seam fastball. Castillo has very good vertical and horizontal movement on his changeup, he gets 34.1 inches of vertical movement, which ranks 68th of all changeups in the major leagues. He also gets 16.5 inches of horizontal movement, which ranks 34th of all changeups in the major leagues.

He ranks in the 85th percentile of xERA which is very good. Castillo has some of the nastiest stuff in the league, which is reflected by some of his data. He gets a lot of strikeouts and would be a great acquisition for the Angels.

Prospect Cost

The prospect package for Luis Castillo would likely be centered around the Angels’ 2020 first round pick, Reid Detmers. Luis Castillo has a much higher ceiling than Reid Detmers and is already doing it at the major league level. Detmers also is not expected to crack the major league roster until late 2022, and for a team with win now expectations that will not cut it.

Reid Detmers is a very good prospect and likely will become a big leaguer at some point in his career, but Luis Castillo is an ace with a solidified background. He would become the ace that the Angels desperately need, while also able to be in Anaheim for at least three years.

By the time Luis Castillo is a free agent, Albert Pujols and Justin Upton will be off of the books, so an extension would not be out of the picture. In that case, losing Reid Detmers does not really hurt the franchise long term, but helps tremendously in the short term. The Angels hold the ninth overall pick in 2021 and could look to replace Detmers with that pick if they do end up trading him for Castillo. Again, the Angels would not be hurt too much long term over the loss of Detmers if Castillo can be as good as he has been in prior years and continue to become a better pitcher.

The Angels might also have to part with Jo Adell, their most prized young piece. It’s an interesting proposition.