LA Angels: 3 reasons to pursue James Paxton in free agency
The Angels need big name starting pitching, but they also have an entire rotation to fill out.
James Paxton was a disappointment in New York over his two years as a Yankee, but after an injury riddled 2020 I believe that he will be able to be a bounce back candidate and will be a solid option for the middle of the rotation.
James Paxton was very impressive when he came into the league in late 2013 for a cup of coffee with the Mariners, but until 2016 he was middling with quite a few unfortunate injuries. He dealt with a lat strain in 2014, and in 2015 he landed on the Injured List with a strained tendon on his middle finger on his throwing hand.
In 2016 he had his first completely healthy season which turned out to be a much better season for Paxton, over 121 innings pitched he had a 3.79 ERA and a 2.80 FIP. He struck out 8.7 batters per nine and put up a career best 1.79 BB/9. In 2017, Paxton had his best season of his career putting up a 2.98 ERA and a 2.61 FIP but landed on the injured list twice with a forearm strain on his throwing arm and a left pectoral strain.
Ever since he has been getting a little worse, but as of 2019 he was a very serviceable option for the Yankees.
Paxton’s 2020 started off with extreme difficulty to get to speed in the first place, because in February he dealt with a surgery to remove a peridiscal cyst and was slated to be out 3-4 months which would have made him miss opening day for the Yankees, but of course the season was pushed back. He was able to make the opening day roster in late July, he made five starts before landing on the 60-day Injured List with a left flexor strain.
Over Paxton’s career, he has struggled to stay healthy but when he has, especially recently, he has been a very serviceable 3-4 starter which would provide good depth for the Angels in a very deprived rotation.
Upside
James Paxton has middle to top of the rotation upside if he can stay healthy in 2021. Paxton could be a very serviceable option for the Angels who are a team who needs rotation depth. Paxton’s 2019 was his last healthy season, and he was able to put up a 3.82 ERA and with a 3.86 FIP. He might have been hurt by the short porch of Yankee Stadium as his HR/9 jumped from 1.29 in 2018 to 1.37 in 2019.
Paxton put up a career worst BB/9 of 3.29 in 2019 but that seems like an outlier from his entire body of work. I believe that Paxton can provide very high upside if he can work on getting more ground balls, there seems to be a correlation between his fastball location and his ground ball rate.
His ground ball rate has been going down throughout his career and over the last few years, especially in 2019 and his very short 2020, he has located his fastball in the upper portion of the zone at a much higher rate than in prior years when he does not have the velocity to blow by hitters up in the zone.
James Paxton definitely would be a good signing for the Angels who would immediately slot into the middle of the rotation. It definitely feels like James Paxton has potential to lower his home run rate and his walk rate which would definitely help his case to have a much better season in 2021. Paxton might also be able to get more efficiency in 2021 because of the Angels using a six-man rotation, which should be able to maximize his health and give him more rest. The Angels feel like one of the best fits for him, for a multitude of reasons.
Rotation Fit
The Angels are looking for pitching options that could fit their very depleted rotation for 2021. James Paxton is a very good one because of his very good upside that has already been mentioned, another reason that Paxton is a good fit is because of his handedness. Paxton is a left-handed pitcher who’s fastball sat around 92 mph in 2020 but sat around 95-97 in prior years of his career, he has a good mix of pitches consisting of a cutter, changeup, and curveball.
His changeup gets a ton of swings and misses, he had a 53.8 whiff rate on the changeup in 2019 and had a stellar 68.4 whiff rate in his shortened 2020. The Angels could definitely use another left handed pitcher because they only have one, in Andrew Heaney.
Andrew Heaney is a very similar pitcher repertoire wise, his fastball sits around 91 mph and also throws a curveball and changeup. James Paxton would also benefit from the Angels use of the six-man rotation, as I have already mentioned Paxton has dealt with a ton of injuries over his career and the six-man rotation would lower his workload in the rotation.
I believe that more rest would help Paxton in more ways than one, he might be able to regain some velocity on his fastball based on him being healthy and getting more rest in between starts. If Paxton can be healthy, the Angels can have one of the better pitching rotations if they can add a Trevor Bauer type of pitcher. Although the Angels have quite a bit of work to do for the 2021 rotation, they definitely can get some high upside from Paxton who comes with very little risk.
Cheap Cost
James Paxton’s upside is so high and it makes him so much more attractive that his cost of acquisition will be very low. I would expect Paxton to receive a one year contract in the range of $4-5 million dollars, which really will not hurt the Angels. I think that he could be one of the best cheap options for his upside.
If Paxton does not live up to his upside, the short term contract and small dollar amount should not be that big of a deal and would be very swallowable for the Angels. The Angels are needing the cheap upside of a Paxton type of pitcher, like I said he would slot into the rotation extremely well and in theory would benefit from becoming an Angel. The Angels should be in on Paxton because of their need for cheap rotation help and left handed starters.
This really feels like it could become a perfect fit for Paxton to succeed and help the Angels break their six year postseason drought. The Angels can finally supply their amazing hitting core with some high upside arms at a low cost monetarily. The Angels would also not have to give up any of their top young players, like Jo Adell or Reid Detmers.
The Angels have win-now aspirations with the best player in baseball in Mike Trout and James Paxton could become a great option to help get the Angels and Mike Trout into the postseason, which is what we all want to see. James Paxton could be one of a few pitching pieces that the Angels bring in this offseason to help their hitting core and win a weakening AL West.
Paxton provides great upside for very low risk based on cost. If there is one thing that we all want to see, is the Angels succeed and supply their great hitting core with some pitching help.