LA Angels: Why David Fletcher could be the perfect trade chip this winter

David Fletcher is a fun player, but did he over-perform in 2020?

When a team is not in contention and players on their roster appear to have peaked in terms of trade value, logically speaking it wouldn’t make much sense to keep them around. This is  especially true when they have two things every team is looking for: years of control and youth.

Everything I just said suggests trading David Fletcher is an obvious call to make. Fletcher is painfully average in every facet of the game, but Angels fans want to keep him because he gets on base and doesn’t cost them a whole lot for a couple of years. It makes total sense. He is a genuinely fun player and a fan favorite. However, in an off-season where the Angels need to prioritize pitching help, Fletcher could be their biggest trade asset.

That’s why they should trade him. Fletcher has two years left until he’s eligible for arbitration,  setting him up for free agency in 2025. Even with the issues in the underlying data, a player thats produced WARs as high as Fletcher and has his ability to play three positions should garner value. The Angels should be mentioning him in every negotiation taking place right now.

Fletcher’s 2020 season adjusted for 653 PA (2019 total) would’ve been a 4.5 WAR. Just over a win higher than his 2019 total of 3.4. Now, due to the small sample sizes, the Angels can exploit his inherent value. However, his extremely positive 2020 results were boosted by a ridiculously high BABIP, which wasn’t at all due to an elite swing path, or otherwise known as his VBA (vertical bat angle).

For those that don’t know, VBA ties into BABIP & xwOBA when projecting future success as the farther a VBA gets away from 32 degrees (on middle quadrant pitches), the lower BABIPs he’ll run in the future. Fletcher managed to run a .348 BABIP in 2020 compared to .317 in 2019 with a -25 VBA.

The ‘Old School’ Player

His flat-planed swing produces a high ground ball rate (54.3% in 2020) and thus a higher BABIP, but this doesn’t inherently help him.

We can all agree, 2020’s sample size was extremely small, but Fletcher had 1 barrel in 185 batted ball events. That is painfully bad. This had him in the lowest possible percentile (1st percentile) for hard hit rate in 2020. Fletcher not only has contact issues — he also has poor defensive skills away from second base, demonstrated by a 6th percentile outs above average (OAA) mark in 2020.

He’s fun to watch if you enjoy ground balls and “old school baseball”, but he’s an extremely volatile asset. He returns very little value outside of above average speed and the 0.05% chance he puts a ball in play at above 95 miles per hour with the proper launch angle.

Fletcher has played five positions since entering the league in 2020, but the position he’s best at is second base. His DRS of 15 at the spot is 2 runs higher then his total at 3B, with 212 less innings. So, while he adds slight value at different spots, the position he adds the most at is slowly becoming one of the least important positions to field.

We can all agree the Reds and Dodgers are two of the smartest front offices in baseball. What does it say about the position of second base when these two teams are fielding Max Muncy (-0.3 UZR at 2B) and Mike Moustakas (-3 DRS at 2B) at the position? It’s blatantly obvious what it means — the ability to shift a player based on advanced scouting reports and batted ball profiles make tools and abilties like range near obsolete. Fletcher’s best defensive ability is his range (1.2 RngR, 1.6 UZR vs 0.5 ErrR, -0.1 ARM). With his best abilities becoming useless in today’s game, why would they want to keep him?

They shouldn’t, so here are three possible teams they could ship him off too.