Angels Rumors: Trade scenarios for Reds pitcher Sonny Gray

As the Angels continue their offseason search for an ace in the rotation, I’m becoming convinced the answer lies beyond free-agency. It’s slim pickings when it comes to finding a statistically dominant starting pitcher on the market. If the Halos are looking to add an impact arm, the team is better off making a trade now or later on this season at the deadline. One name that is worth considering is Reds starting pitcher Sonny Gray.

Our friends over at Blog Red Machine touched on this subject last month. It might require general manager Perry Minasian and the Angels to part ways with some promising young prospects, but it is worth considering if the Halos are in a ‘win-now’ mode.

Reds starting pitcher Sonny Gray is a player the Angels should consider trading for this offseason.

Gray’s career got off to a great start in Oakland during 2013, where the right-hander posted a sub-3 ERA in two of his first three major league seasons while earning an All-Star appearance in 2015.

Things took a turn for Gray the next season when his ERA ballooned over-5, and he was traded to the Yankees at the deadline in 2017. The inconsistency continued in the Bronx, which led to Gray’s relief appearances, followed by New York trading him to Cincinnati, where he regained his All-Star form in 2019.

Sonny Gray Last Five Seasons:

• 2016: (22 starts) (5-11, 5.69 ERA) 117.0 IP 1.496 WHIP
• 2017: (27 starts) (10-12, 3.55 ERA) 162.1 IP 1.207 WHIP
• 2018: (23 starts) (11-9, 4.90 ERA) 130.1 IP 1.496 WHIP
• 2019: (31 starts) (11-8, 2.87 ERA) 175.1 IP 1.084 WHIP (All-Star)
• 2020: (11 starts) (5-3, 3.70 ERA) 56.0 IP 1.214 WHIP

Gray, 31, has two-years, $20.34 million remaining on his current contract. This considerably low deal could drive up the asking price of the Reds between now and the end of next season.

The statistics and contract lead to the million-dollar question, is Gray worth parting ways with one or more top prospects?

The way I see it, it’s a gamble either way. There are no guarantees any top prospects pan out like an organization hopes, just like there’s a risk in hoping Gray can put the Angels over the top. If the Halos want to be competitive in 2021, I say roll the dice and make it happen.

Of all the young players in the Angels farm system, outfielder Brandon Marsh will be one of the most sought-after trade chips. Marsh is currently ranked as the No.1 Angels prospect and listed at No.73 on the MLB Top 100 list.

At 23-years old, Marsh looks poised to take over a corner outfield spot for the Angels at some point in the near future. In 2019, Marsh slashed .287/.368/.408 with seven home runs and 45 RBI through 101 games in double-A and the Arizona Fall League.

Marsh is also considered to have plus-base running speed and plus-defense in the outfield.

After running a scenario that involves Marsh (value-37.5) for Gray (value-29.7) straight up, the trade simulator considers the Angels to ‘moderately overpay’ in this scenario.

The Angels currently have no clear-cut choice for a starter in right field, and the declining production of Justin Upton could lead to finding a replacement in left field before his contract expires after 2022.

Would trading Brandon Marsh for Sonny Gray involve the Angels giving up too much?

This leads to the perfect scenario where Marsh slides into a corner position and develops next to one of the game’s best in Mike Trout. I would argue Marsh could even earn a spot on the opening day roster depending on how well he performs in spring training.

Cincinnati’s outfield depth is full at the moment, but right fielder Nick Castellanos has one-year remaining on his current deal. Considering the Reds are shopping Gray and fellow starter Luis Castillo, I think it’s safe to assume Cincinnatti would consider parting ways with Castellanos at the deadline if the team has fallen out of contention.

I think this scenario all goes back to whether or not Arte Moreno and the Angels are in a ‘win-now’ mode. The organization needs to consider if the Halos need more help in the outfield or the rotation, and which position is easier to improve.

If not Marsh, the Angels have a young outfielder with MLB experience the Reds may consider.

So far, the straight-up trades I’ve suggested for Gray (value-29.7) consider the Angels to overpay in both scenarios. The simulator suggests a trade of Angels prospects Jordyn Adams (No.3), Jeremiah Jackson (No.4), and Kyren Paris (No.5) combine for a total trade value of 30.4 which would result in an ‘accepted’ deal.

It should be noted this is purely a scenario of what could work. There are no guarantees this needs to be the exact trade scenario to pull off a trade for Gray, but it gives an idea of the type of players that consider this to be a ‘fair’ trade.

Jordyn Adams, OF

Selected out of high school with the 17th overall pick in the 2018 draft, Adams, 21, is considered to have a long way to go in terms of defining his skills. The outfielder is considered to have impressive plate discipline with a high-walk rate and excellent pitch selection. Adams is also rated as having “top-of-the-scale” speed and is projected to make things happen on the base paths to go along with great defense. Adams slashed .257/.351./.369 with eight home runs and 36 RBI in 109 games combined in single-A and the Arizona Fall League in 2019.

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Jeremiah Jackson, 2B/SS

Jackson was also drafted out of high school in the 2018 draft and was selected with the 52nd pick in the 2nd round. The infielder posted a .266/.333/.605 line with 23 home runs and 60 RBI through 65 games in the Pioneer League in 2019. Jackson has shown signs of being a run producer, but a strikeout rate is still something that needs work. Defensively, Jackson is considered a work in progress as well.

Kyren Paris, SS

Another high school product, Kyren Paris was selected in the 2nd round with the 55th pick in the 2019 draft. The 19-year old appeared in just three games in the Arizona Fall League, where he slashed .300/.462/.400 with two RBI in ten plate-appearances. Paris has a line-drive approach at the plate and is considered to have a “smooth” approach on both sides of the ball. The young shortstop figures to add physical strength, which will add to his above-average abilities in the infield.

The Angels have a number of prospects the Reds may consider in a trade for Sonny Gray.

At the moment, Cincinnatti only has one top-10 shortstop in their system in Jose Garcia (No.6). The 22-year old Garcia is currently listed on the active roster, and posted a .194/.206/.194 line in 24 games for the Reds last season.

The Reds have reportedly shown interest in former Angel Andrelton Simmons, so there is some desire to get another shortstop, though none of the prospects listed in this trade scenario will be MLB-ready for quite some time. It doesn’t appear Cincinnatti has plans to go for it all in 2021, so perhaps they might be willing to develop young infielders.

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Whether or not the Angels will trade for a starter at some point remains to be seen, but there are certainly options out there to consider. If they play their cards right, the Halos could set themselves to be a World Series contender in 2021 and beyond.