LA Angels: Which team is the favorite to win the AL West?

One playoff appearance in the last 11 seasons and three straight years of fourth-place finishes have been the story of the Los Angeles Angels. Whether or not the Halos can end their seven-year playoff drought remains to be seen, but it could be their time to shine in 2021.

Earlier this offseason the Angels were projected as an American League Wild Card team, though some might not feel as confident in that prediction. What might lead to believe the Halos can contend is the lack of competition within their division. PECOTA also had three teams in the AL West to finish with a record below .500 this season, after four teams did so in 2020.

The Angels winning the AL West division is more realistic than most predict.

This Halos roster has big-name talent, including two of the best players in the league in Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon. Add in a healthy Shohei Ohtani, hitting-machine David Fletcher, and you have arguably one of the best top of the orders in baseball.

The additions of shortstop Jose Iglesias, outfielder Dexter Fowler, and catcher Kurt Suzuki don’t jump off the page in terms of star-power, but they could provide enough to give the Angels one of the most productive offenses in the league with their current group.

Through 26 spring training games, the Halos currently rank top-10 in the league in team batting average (.261-9th), runs scored (130-8th) , and on-base plus slugging percentage (.797-6th).

Offense won’t be the problem in 2021. The concern will be the main culprit of the past few seasons in Anaheim–pitching.

The Angels currently have the fourth-worst team ERA (5.43) and are tied for the fifth-worst WHIP (1.480) in both the Cactus and Grape Fruit League. Sure it’s just spring training, but the poor performances on the mound has been a consistent theme. It doesn’t help that general manager Perry Minasian and owner Arte Moreno did not bring in any big-name arms to fix the problem.

The Halos will use Dylan Bundy as their ace this season, likely followed by new additions Jose Quintana and Alex Cobb. All three pitchers would be middle-of-the-pack options on more competitive teams, but the Halos are hoping to use them as their top three starters.

Another large ask will be of Ohtani as the team’s sixth-man. It could be a tall order considering he is coming off an injury and has made just two starts combined since the 2018 season. More questions come with the backend of the rotation as both Andrew Heaney and Griffin Canning have struggled this spring.

Both Minasian and Moreno decided to play it safe this offseason when they could have turned this current roster into a powerhouse. The new additions all come on one-year deals so if the Angels fall out of contention by the trade deadline expect a head start on a retool for 2022.

The good news is there’s enough talent on this team where they can be competitive in an AL West division where each team has its flaws. It’s disappointing there were no high-level impact players brought in to make this team even better than they are right now, but maybe this group can prove otherwise. If the Halos can stay in the hunt during the first few months of the season, a trade can be made to make the Angels a legitimate contender in the division.

Texas Rangers

Last season the Rangers finished at the bottom of the division with a 22-38 record, the second-worst in the league. I think we can expect more of the same in 2021.

Texas is currently in full-rebuild mode, which isn’t the worst thing. Sure it might be a long season, but at least their fans know there is a clear direction of where the team plans to head, rather than being stuck in the unknown.

A rebuilding Rangers team should provide easy division wins for the Angels.

Former MLB pitcher and new general manager Chris Young has considerably shrunk the team’s payroll to the bottom-10 in the league. Khris Davis ($16.75MM) and Rougned Odor ($12.33MM) are the team’s highest paid players and will likely be moved at the deadline for prospects. Joining them could be former-top prospect Joey Gallo who has one final year of arbitration eligibility before becoming a free agent in 2023.

Last season the Rangers had the league’s second-worst team batting average (.217) and on-base plus slugging percentage (.648).

Their team pitching statistics weren’t as bad, but the Rangers recently traded their best arm from 2020, Lance Lynn, in exchange for Dane Dunning of the White Sox. The top of the projected 2021 rotation consists of Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles.

The Rangers will begin the season at full capacity for fans, but it’s not going to give them an advantage. The transition Texas is in should be favorable for the Angels when they match up this season. If not, it will be wasted opportunities at easy wins.

Oakland Athletics

One of the most consistent teams in the AL West, the Oakland Athletics are looking to make the postseason for the fourth straight season, and the seventh time in the last ten years. Can they go beyond the Division Series? That’s the big question, but Billy Beane and Co. have a knack for putting a competitive product at a low price.

Angels: The A’s are in a great position to repeat as division winners in 2021.

The A’s filled the void of of Marcus Semien by trading within the division for former Rangers shortstop Elvis Andrus. Oakland also retooled their bullpen after losing closer Liam Hendriks by signing Trevor Rosenthal and Yusmiero Petit. Why the Angels didn’t go after either reliever still blows my mind.

Oakland’s slug-heavy approach struggled last season and they lost third baseman Matt Chapman to injury after 37 games. This is a team who can be even better than a year ago if their offense can find consistency for a full season.

What carried the A’s last summer was their pitching. Oakland finished with the league’s fifth-best team ERA (3.77) thanks to a lockdown bullpen and starter Chris Bassit who posted a 2.29 ERA and 1.159 WHIP in 11 starts.

The rest of the rotation was average as no starter had a sub-4 ERA. Could this formula of a decent rotation plus a dominant bullpen lead to another playoff birth for the A’s? It seems to be asking a lot, but it helped Oakland win the division last summer.  It gives a bit of hope to the Angels who are using the same strategy this season.

The big difference is the A’s have a stable of arms under team control for the next few seasons. Whereas the Angels have four starters set to hit free agency this winter.

The foundation of Frankie Montas, Jesus Luzardo, and Sean Manaea have the potential to take the next steps as elite starters. This would make the A’s a legitimate World Series contender, and they will be among the teams to beat in the division this season and for years to come.

Houston Astros

Whether they buzzed and banged their way to a few of them, four straight trips to the ALCS looks impressive. I don’t like the Astros or what they did, but you have to give them credit for what they were able to accomplish last summer under first-year manager Dusty Baker.

They finished with a 29-31 record, but earned a playoff birth thanks to the expanded postseason rule. Once they were in, the Astros took full advantage and were one game shy of a World Series appearance.

Angels: They have some questions, but the Astros will still be a team to beat.

Houston is going to look a bit different this season after they lost arguably their best player from 2020 in George Springer. The Astros offense is still loaded with big-name talent. Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman all underperformed from what we are accustomed to. I think it would be a mistake to assume the three players cannot get back to their usual All-Star production.

The big questions for Houston in 2021 will be with their pitching.

Justin Verlander isn’t expected to pitch this season, and the Astros will miss top-prospect Forrest Whitley and Framber Valdez as well.

Houston still has one of the league’s best arms in Zack Greinke leading their rotation. Following him will be the recently acquired Jake Odorizzi and Lance McCullers Jr. The backend of their rotation could be experimented with young starters Jose Urquidy and Christian Javier.

The Astros bullpen is another area that could make them vulnerable this season as their young core struggled at times in 2020. Veterans Jose Baez and Ryan Stanek were brought in to add some veteran experience.

It will be an uphill battle for Houston in their push for the playoffs, but I believe they still have enough experience and talent to compete for a division title.

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The best way for the Angels to win the AL West is simple–beat the teams in the division. This is something the Halos have failed to do, finishing below .500 against division opponents for three straight seasons.

Considering two teams (Rangers and Mariners) are rebuilding, and the top two contenders (A’s and Astros) have some weaknesses, now is the time for the Angels to take advantage. Otherwise it will be another middle-of-the-pack finish and another year of wasted opportunity in Anaheim.