3 regression candidates the Angels should stay away from in free agency
The Angels cannot make another mistake in free agency. The Anthony Rendon contract has set the franchise back... a decade? Two decades might not even be a stretch. In case you do not already know, two decades are about when Shohei Ohtani's deferred Dodgers payments end.
The Angels should not have much issue turning free agents away, if free agents do still consider them as a plausible destination these days. Having said that, agents who represent deteriorating assets could try and exploit Arte Moreno's vow to increase spending this offseason. If players start to see a decrease in demand in their services, the Angels could become a more desirable team to take their talents and maximize their earnings.
The Angels might not view free agency as more important than making trades this offseason, but they will certainly dabble in the market. The Angels are as good as any other club at being a runner-up for desirable free agents, and therefore could opt to throw more of their eggs in the swapping players basket.
These free agents might not have interest in joining the Angels, but if they do? Best to avoid them.
Jack Flaherty
The Dodgers cannot bring their ENTIRE roster back with their current financial commitments, right? The National League pennant winners have a boat-load of money pledged to their roster next season, plus should already be penciling Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Gavin Stone, and two/three of Tony Gonsolin, River Ryan, Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, Landon Knack, Dustin May, Justin Wrobleski into their rotation. (Ohtani's return to the mound will likely mean the Dodgers utilize a 6-man rotation). They could also resign Walker Buehler and/or future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw for cheaper deals than Flaherty. Bullpen days have also proven highly effective for Los Angeles.
Flaherty just turned 29-years-old, and he is one of the younger starting pitchers who will be on the market. However, Flaherty does have a lengthy injury history, which does negate his age some. He has struggled to stay on the field and maintain his velocity, both during starts and throughout the course of the season. Velocity is a touchy subject for Flaherty, and his average fastball's velo has increased on average this year. The fact of the matter is a long-term contract for a pitcher who will be in their 30s and has a not insignificant injury history is the type of move modern day front offices are trying to avoid.
Flaherty has thrown the second most innings of his career this season. When you factor in an increased workload coming off of serious arm injuries, plus an elongated run in the playoffs, Flaherty might take a step back next season (especially during April). He will command a big contract coming off of his largely successful 2024 campaign, but the Angels cannot afford a mistake in overpaying a player with Flaherty's injury history to be their team's ace next year.
Kenley Jansen
Kenley Jansen will definitely not be resigning with Boston, he made many people in that organization angry after abandoning the team before their regular season was over. Jansen has publicly said he prioritizes winning over everything, but nobody would be surprised if he opts to pitch for the highest bidder rather than the best winning environment at this point in his long, accomplished career.
Jansen's 27 saves last season were one of the lowest marks of his career. His max velocity is way down. He just generally seems more lethargic these days too, and he often could only turn on his best stuff once he already let a base runner or two on.
One could easily make a case that if the Angels are serious about contending, then they should bring in an established closer and move Ben Joyce into a set-up role. This would help round out their bullpen too, putting less pressure on guys like Brock Burke, José Quijada, and Ryan Zeferjahn. That would not be the worst idea in the world. Just don't let that guy be Jansen.
Tyler O'Neill
If O'Neill even would accept a contract to join the Angels, there is a bit of an outfield block for the right-handed hitter. The Red Sox deployed O'Neill every single time the opposing team started a left-handed pitcher, but much more sparsely if there was a righty. Fitting O'Neill in alongside Mike Trout, Taylor Ward, and Jo Adell might require moving one in a trade, most likely Ward. If Minasian could pull off a signing for O'Neill (or another right-handed, slugging outfielder), and can move Ward to bolster another position then that sounds pretty good. The issue is that O'Neill is more expensive and less reliable than Ward when it comes to their availability.
Like Flaherty, the injury risk with O'Neill is just too high to ignore. O'Neill set himself up well with a 2.7 bWAR, the second highest mark of his career. While O'Neill's accomplishments were nothing to stick your nose up at, the 29-year-old showed signs that the injuries could have taken a major toll on him.
In 2022, O'Neill's outfield range/Outs Above Average ranked in the 72nd percentile. In 2024, it was in the 18th. In 2022, his sprint speed was in the 97th percentile. In 2024, it was in the 55th. His fielding and running numbers are way down from 2021, where he was an MVP runner up. O'Neill made three stints to the Injured List last year, and seemingly has lingering knee issues from years past.
The Red Sox bought low on O'Neill when they traded for him heading into 2024, but the free agency market will not reflect that same value this time around. Maybe the Angels could find a market inefficiency to bolster their outfield like the Red Sox did with O'Neill?