3 regression candidates the Angels should stay away from in free agency

Tyler O'Neill

If O'Neill even would accept a contract to join the Angels, there is a bit of an outfield block for the right-handed hitter. The Red Sox deployed O'Neill every single time the opposing team started a left-handed pitcher, but much more sparsely if there was a righty. Fitting O'Neill in alongside Mike Trout, Taylor Ward, and Jo Adell might require moving one in a trade, most likely Ward. If Minasian could pull off a signing for O'Neill (or another right-handed, slugging outfielder), and can move Ward to bolster another position then that sounds pretty good. The issue is that O'Neill is more expensive and less reliable than Ward when it comes to their availability.

Like Flaherty, the injury risk with O'Neill is just too high to ignore. O'Neill set himself up well with a 2.7 bWAR, the second highest mark of his career. While O'Neill's accomplishments were nothing to stick your nose up at, the 29-year-old showed signs that the injuries could have taken a major toll on him.

In 2022, O'Neill's outfield range/Outs Above Average ranked in the 72nd percentile. In 2024, it was in the 18th. In 2022, his sprint speed was in the 97th percentile. In 2024, it was in the 55th. His fielding and running numbers are way down from 2021, where he was an MVP runner up. O'Neill made three stints to the Injured List last year, and seemingly has lingering knee issues from years past.

The Red Sox bought low on O'Neill when they traded for him heading into 2024, but the free agency market will not reflect that same value this time around. Maybe the Angels could find a market inefficiency to bolster their outfield like the Red Sox did with O'Neill?