Mike Trout's recent home run barrage means more to the Angels than you might think

We're only nine games into the Angels' season, but already we've seen several important developments. From an attitude shift in the locker room that represents a budding culture of winning, to some questionable roster and managerial decisions that may hold the team back, there's been no shortage of developments in Angels' land.

Of course, the most important development, one that's yet to be fully answered, is whether Mike Trout can stay productive and healthy throughout the season. After averaging just 66.5 games per season over the past four seasons, having a healthy Trout is imperative.

So far, he's played all nine of the Angels' games with seven coming in right field and the remaining two at DH. Nine games are already about a third of his entire games played total from last season, when he tore his meniscus twice, limiting him to a career low 29 games.

Being healthy is one part of the equation, but the other is being productive. If the Angels are going to make any noise in the AL West, they need Trout back at as close to the peak of his powers as he can get. It feels like forever ago, but before Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge, the most feared hitter in the game was Trout.

Trout went yard in three straight games, giving fans a glimmer of hope before having his home run streak snapped this past Sunday against the Guardians, however, the overall results on the young season have been underwhelming.

Has Mike Trout morphed into a boom-or-bust hitter?

It's common for once-great players to become feast or famine type of hitters later on in their career, especially after injuries have ravaged their bodies. Despite Trout's long ball barrage, his line on the season is just .188/.300/.500, which would indicate that he's moved into that territory.

However, the underlying metrics show that there's more than meets the eye with regard to his early-season returns. First and foremost, the bedrock of Trout's success has always been his premier plate discipline.

For his career, the future Hall of Famer has walked at a well-above-average 14.7% while striking out at a better-than-average 22.3%. So far in 2025, Trout's 12.5% walk-rate, while a bit shy of his career number, is significantly better than league-average, and his 20.0% strikeout rate is better than both the league average and his career mark.

Suffice to say, he's still got the elite plate discipline that has made him one of the greats. Beyond that, the batted ball data shows that he's been very unlucky to start the year. While Trout's actual batting average is just .188, his expected batting average, per Statcast, is .308. His actual slugging percentage of .500 is already good, but the expected number is an eye-popping .718.

The reasons for this are two-fold, Trout still has elite batspeed, ranking in the 71st percentile, and still regularly hits the ball on the sweet spot with a barrel rate that's in the 84th percentile. All of this means, his roughly league-average wOBA of .317 should have resulted in an expected wOBA of .440 based on the quality of his contact.

For reference, the xwOBA of .440 is higher than the actual wOBA numbers he posted in his three MVP campaigns, where his marks ranged from .402 in 2014, to .418 in 2016, and finally .436 in 2019. The reason for this is that, in addition to sterling plate discipline, Trout is making hard contact and getting the ball in the air where it should be doing damage, as he has a 53.8% fly ball rate on the season through nine games.

At a certain point, the expected results and the actuals need to line up; however, this early in the season, when there is a lot of noise in the small sample, it's important to contextualize the results versus what could've been.

The important takeaway here is that Trout is healthy. He's finding his power stroke and consistently getting the ball in the air, which indicates that his legs are healthy. After a lost season due to some serious knee injuries, that's a very welcome sight.

Trout doesn't look like a boom-or-bust hitter who is a shell of his former self, instead, he's been looking like the guy who won three MVP awards and terrorized American League pitchers year in and year out, and that's a very welcome sign for the Angels.

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