2 reasons the Angels shouldn't trade Patrick Sandoval this offseason, 1 they should
While it might be tempting to move him, the Angels should hold on to Patrick Sandoval
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Starting pitching was supposed to be a strength for the Los Angeles Angels entering this season. They just ended the 2022 season ranking sixth in rotation ERA in all of baseball. Shohei Ohtani was coming off a Cy Young caliber year, the young starters surrounding him all took leaps in the second half, and the Angels brought in Tyler Anderson who was an all-star in 2022 and seemed to be better than the likes of Noah Syndergaard and Michael Lorenzen.
It's safe to say that this rotation that the Angels hoped would be among the league's best again has taken a massive step in the wrong direction. The team ranks 20th in the majors with a 4.65 ERA and 20th with a 4.51 FIP. They've been inconsistent at best all season long, and Patrick Sandoval has been a key part of those struggles.
The Angels southpaw has taken a step back following what was an encouraging first full year in the Angels rotation. This has caused frustrated fans to want him moved this offseason. While I can't say I blame them, there're more reasons for the Angels to hold onto Sandoval than there are for them to move him.
The LA Angels should keep Patrick Sandoval because he's already shown he can be an all-star caliber starting pitcher
The southpaw had a 2.91 ERA in 27 starts and 148.2 innings pitched. He had a 3.09 FIP, a 138 ERA+, and allowed just eight home runs (0.5 HR/9). Sandoval allowed three runs or fewer in all but four of his starts which is simply outstanding. He completed five innings in all but six of his outings which is solid.
Had Sandoval had enough innings to qualify, he would've ranked ninth in the American League in ERA. He didn't pitch as many innings as others due to the Angels six-man rotation, but if ninth in ERA isn't all-star worthy I'm not quite sure what is.
This season has not been the same for Sandoval. He's had many more rough outings, he's been far more inconsistent, and he's cost the Angels some games they might've won if he pitched better. As frustrating as that is, it's not impossible for Sandoval to simply go back to the pitcher he was in 2022.
The LA Angels should trade Patrick Sandoval because he's regressed in every way
The 2023 season has not been the one Patrick Sandoval was hoping for. Angels fans had hoped for another jump from the southpaw to maybe find his way into the all-star game and solidify himself at the top of the Angels rotation for years to come. That has not happened in the slightest.
Sandoval has a 4.09 ERA in 21 starts to go along with a 4.35 xERA, a 4.06 FIP, and 4.39 xFIP. His walk rate has increased from 9.4% to 10.5%, while his strikeout rate has decreased from 23.7% to 19.7%. Sandoval is even allowing more home runs, as he's allowed nine this season already. That number eclipses the eight he allowed last season.
After allowing more than three runs just four times last season Sandoval has already done that six times this season in six fewer starts. The lack of consistency is glaring. Sandoval has struggled to keep his emotions in check, as we saw last night. He had trouble throwing strikes when things got tough, and wound up walking six in just 2.2 innings pitched.
It's clear that Sandoval has taken a step back in 2023. If the Angels believe he won't turn things back around, trading him now while he still does have some value makes some sense.
The LA Angels should keep Patrick Sandoval because replacing him will not be easy
Patrick Sandoval, even with his struggles this season, has been a fine fourth starter. He's not the frontline guy we hoped he'd develop into, but he's been a fine mid-rotation guy with obvious upside.
At just 26 years old with three more years of control, he certainly has trade value, but what can Sandoval realistically bring back in a trade?
The Angels have three avenues they can pursue here. One, they can trade Sandoval for offense. I'm not sure why they'd do that when pitching has been their biggest issue this season, but that's still an option.
Two, the Angels can trade Sandoval for prospects. We saw how much rentals went for on the trade market. Lucas Giolito is better than Sandoval but I wouldn't say he's considerably better, and his contract expires at the end of this season. The Angels gave up a ton to get Giolito, they can get a ton back for Sandoval. The problem with this is prospects are players you hope live up to what Sandoval has done and will do down the line. It's a lot to bank on when this guy is one year removed from having a sub-3.00 ERA.
Third, the Angels can trade Sandoval for a pitcher to help them win now with less control. This wouldn't be the smart thing to do either unless Shohei Ohtani does decide to remain an Angel. If Ohtani leaves, the chances the Angels win in 2024 are virtually non-existent anyway. It's better off just trying to see what they can unlock with Sandoval.
If the Angels trade Sandoval, the only way they upgrade is if they trade for an arm with less control. That might help them win more in the short term, but that doesn't help the Angels in 2026 when Sandoval is still under team control. Realistically, their best path here is to just hope Sandoval rebounds and finishes strongly this year before his breakout in 2024.
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