The 2022 projections predict another MVP season for Shohei Ohtani

In 2021, Shohei Ohtani was an absolute monster at the plate for the LA Angels. At first thought, it would be reasonable to expect some level of regression following such an incredible season, and yet the projections show otherwise.

Shohei Ohtani is projected to have another award-worthy season at the plate.

• ZiPS: 586 PA, .261/.363/.563, 147 OPS+, 25 2B, 38 HR, 101 RBI, 79 BB, 171 K, 21 SB, 3.9 zWAR

• Steamer: 657 PA, .258/.363/.534, 137 wRC+, 25 2B, 39 HR, 99 RBI, 89 BB, 182 K, 24 SB, 3.5 fWAR

• 2021 Stats: 639 PA, .257/.372/.592, 158 OPS+, 152 wRC+, 26 2B, 46 HR, 100 RBI, 96 BB, 189 K, 26 SB, 5.1 fWAR

If this doesn’t get you excited, I don’t know what will.

What stands out the most here is just how similar the projections for Shohei Ohtani are to his actual numbers from last year. Remember, these are just supposed to be a baseline for what to expect from Ohtani in 2022, but somehow, they’re predicting almost identical numbers to his MVP-winning season.

Regarding any potential areas of concern, like the projected drops in walk rate, on-base percentage and slugging percentage, they are all small enough that they shouldn’t have too great an effect on his actual production. Even a slight decrease in overall power isn’t worrying enough towards Ohtani’s long-term outlook as a hitter.

As for how this stacks up to the rest of the American League DH’s, Ohtani’s 3.9 zWAR and 3.5 fWAR from Steamer are both the second best in the league behind only Yordan Alvarez’s totals (4.9 zWAR, 3.9 fWAR). For context, Alvarez was second to Ohtani last year in fWAR among all DH's.

Looking at some other notable stats, Ohtani is top 10 in the majors in both projections for home runs, OPS and walks, while also making the top 10 in stolen bases in Steamer, though, not in ZiPS.

Another important thing to point out is that these projections rely heavily on past performance. This is significant because Ohtani’s performance at the plate heavily regressed over the final months of the 2021 season due to the Angels giving him virtually no lineup protection and thus seeing very few pitches to hit.

This means that if Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon can stay healthy all season, pitchers will actually have to, well, pitch to Ohtani rather than around him.

All of this is to say that these projections could be even more conservative than at first glance, and that Ohtani still hasn’t reached his full potential at the plate. Consider every opposing pitcher in baseball warned.

If the thought of Shohei Ohtani the hitter has made you hyped for the 2022 season, don’t forget that this is only half of the equation. Like his offensive numbers, Ohtani’s pitching stats were incredible last year, and fortunately it doesn’t look like that is going to change anytime soon.  

Another Cy Young caliber season may be in store for Shohei Ohtani if the projections are right.

• ZiPS: 21 GS, 111.7 IP, 3.63 ERA, 3.65 FIP, 132 K, 10.6 K/9, 42 BB, 3.4 BB/9, 2.4 WAR

• Steamer: 28 GS, 165 IP, 3.70 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 192 K, 10.48 K/9, 57 BB, 3.13 BB/9, 3.1 fWAR

• 2021 Stats: 23 GS, 130.1 IP, 3.18 ERA, 3.52 FIP, 156 K, 10.77 K/9, 44 BB, 3.04 BB/9, 3.0 fWAR

Like with his hitting projections, Ohtani’s pitching numbers are all incredibly similar to his production in 2021. However, more so than with hitting, pitching projections tend to be even more conservative, meaning that Ohtani is set for an even greater leap forward in terms of pitching quality in 2022 if these numbers are accurate.

To get a sense of just how cautious these projections are, let’s look at how two of the league’s best pitchers currently fare in them.

Going by Steamer, Gerrit Cole currently leads all AL starters with a projected 3.29 ERA, while Jacob deGrom is the only starter in all of baseball with a projected ERA below 3 (there were eight qualified starters with sub-3 ERA’s last year). Cole and deGrom are also the only two starters projected to have above 5 fWAR, even though there were seven such pitchers last year.

So rest assured, if you think Ohtani being marked for an ERA in the high 3’s or a fWAR in the low 3’s is something to worry about, don’t be. Ohtani’s projected 3.70 ERA is still the ninth best in the AL, while his 3.1 fWAR is tied for seventh, easily making him a top-10 pitcher in the league.

Another significant thing to point out are his starts and innings totals. ZiPS is a bit closer to what you’d expect from a cautious estimate, but Steamer is predicting a much bigger year for Ohtani.

With a full, healthy season under his belt, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Ohtani get a bit more leeway with regards to his overall workload. Whether that’s pitching deeper into games with pitch counts regularly topping 100 (he only did this four times in 2021), or skipping fewer starts due to fatigue, there are plenty of ways in which Ohtani can reach 28 starts and 165 innings pitched next season.

Considering that Ohtani was snubbed by the AL Cy Young voters last year due to his lack of starts and innings, this bodes incredibly well for his chances of adding yet another award to his mantle.

Speaking of awards, unsurprisingly, these projections make Ohtani the early favorite to repeat as AL MVP in 2022. ZiPS has him finishing with 6.3 zWAR, while Steamer is slightly better at 6.6 fWAR.

Not only are both of these the highest totals in the American League (Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is second in both with 5.9 zWAR and 6.1 fWAR), but they are also better than the actual fWAR totals of the players who finished second-fifth in 2021 AL MVP voting.

Just think about that for a second. The conservative, baseline estimates for how ShoTime will perform in 2022 are already better than how the rest of the AL’s top players actually performed last year.

If there is nothing else you take away from all this, just remember that in a time of great uncertainty, there is one thing we can be certain of; Shohei Ohtani is, and will continue to be, the best baseball player on the planet.