5 free agent starting pitchers the Angels should stay far away from this offseason

Pitching is a need the Los Angeles Angels have had for nearly a decade now. Outside of Shohei Ohtani, the Angels have failed to find frontline starting pitching and it's one of, if not the main reason the team hasn't made the postseason since 2014.

The Angels have had some solid individual seasons here and there from guys like Garrett Richards, Matt Shoemaker, and even Patrick Sandoval, but have yet to find a starting pitcher to perform at a high level for multiple years in a row outside of Ohtani. That's a problem.

With Shohei entering the free agency market and there being a pretty good chance he leaves, the Angels will undoubtedly be in the starting pitcher market. Some of the starting pitchers available would be great additions while others should be arms the Angels stay away from.

The LA Angels should stay far away from Blake Snell this offseason

Hot take? Probably. Blake Snell appears to be the Cy Young frontrunner in the National League and for good reason. He's had a phenominal year. Still, there're many red flags that would come about if the Angels signed him to the point where they should be staying away.

The southpaw has obviously had a fantastic year. He has a league-leading 2.33 ERA in 31 starts and 174 innings pitched. He leads the league with a 175 ERA+, is second in the majors in strikeouts, and has allowed just 5.7 H/9. All of that is great, but his 3.48 FIP indicates that there has been some luck involved.

While he's been striking batters out at an elite level, Snell also leads the league in walks. Walks don't mean much when they don't come around to score, but they do elevate his pitch count and the chances Snell allows fewer than six hits per nine next season are slim to none. Opponents have a .256 BAbip against him. Part of that is Snell being a good pitcher and executing pitches, but some of it is also clearly bad luck.

Even if Snell isn't the Cy Young caliber pitcher he has been this season he'd still be good, but would he be worth the price tag? Snell's price has elevated exponentially due to his great year when from 2019-2022 he was nothing more than a mid-rotation arm. Snell had a 3.85 ERA in 85 starts in that span, making more than 25 starts just once.

The Angels took a gamble by signing Tyler Anderson who was coming off a career year and that has failed in a big way. Giving Snell a longer and more expensive deal when he's had some injury concerns, will be 31 next season, and has yet to string two all-star caliber years together seems like a bad idea.

The LA Angels should stay far away from James Paxton this offseason

The Boston Red Sox remained in the Wild Card race for as long as they did partially because James Paxton emerged as a really solid starting pitcher for them. Boston had one of the worst rotations in baseball early on, but Paxton's return really steadied things. Paxton pitching well was surprising mainly because he didn't pitch at all in 2022 and had made just six starts since 2019.

Injuries have been the big issue for Paxton who, when healthy, has always been effective. Paxton has a 4.50 ERA through 19 starts this season, but that mark was at 3.36 through his first 15 starts. He's had four rough outings in a row to really spike the ERA.

While I think Paxton can be good when healthy, he simply hasn't proven he can stay healthy. He's made more than 25 starts just twice in 11 years and does not have a single season in which he has qualified for the ERA title.

Paxton would want a deal where he had a spot in a rotation guaranteed, and the Angels simply don't have the depth necessary to account for Paxton likely missing time on the IL. Getting guys they know can take the ball should be a priority, especially seeing how badly they've been bit by the injury bug.

The LA Angels should stay far away from Lucas Giolito this offseason

This one might be obvious, but still has to be said. Lucas Giolito is one of the better free agent starting pitchers available and even with his struggles this season, will get a lucrative deal from some team out there. That team should not be the Angels.

Giolito's struggles with the Angels are obviously the main reason why the team should not pursue him. In six starts with the team, the right-hander had a 6.89 ERA in 32.2 innings pitched. He allowed a whopping ten home runs and never looked very comfortable in an Angels uniform. He was only truly awful in that one Atlanta start, but still wasn't anything special in his others.

The Angels stint was bad, but there were red flags when the team acquired him. The main one was, despite his 3.79 ERA, Giolito had a 4.43 FIP with Chicago. He was getting solid results, but the peripherals gave the impression that he was getting lucky. He imploded with the Angels and his first start with Cleveland.

Can Giolito get back to the Cy Young caliber pitcher he once was? Maybe. Would he do it with the Angels? I can almost guarantee the answer to that question is no, especially if Matt Wise remains with the club.

The LA Angels should stay far away from Mike Clevinger this offseason

Just five years ago, Mike Clevinger looked like another future ace developed by the Cleveland organization. In 2018 he had an ERA of 3.02 in 32 starts and 200 innings pitched. That's an ace season right there. Unfortunately, after the 2018 season is when injuries started happening. He made 21 starts in 2019 and underwent Tommy John in 2020.

Clevinger missed all of 2021 and looked like a shell of himself last season. Last offseason saw Clevinger sign a one-year prove-it deal with the White Sox and he's had himself a nice year. He has a 3.42 ERA in 22 starts and 123.2 innings pitched. Despite the solid year, he's not a pitcher the Angels should be considering.

First, Clevinger has topped 130 innings just once in his career, and that came back in the aforementioned 2018 season. He should do it again this season, but that'd only be his second time in seven seasons. He will have made 30 starts just once. Durability is a concern.

Clevinger has a solid ERA, but has a 4.07 FIP, a 5.07 xFIP, and an xERA approaching 4.00 as well. He's done a nice job limiting hard contact, but there has been luck involved with Clevinger keeping his ERA where it is.

The right-hander is allowing fewer ground balls than he ever has, and his strikeout rate is the second-lowest of his career. It's extremely hard to not only see Clevinger make enough starts for the Angels, but coming close to duplicating this season he has had for Chicago.