Are prospects Michael Stefanic and Brendon Davis ready to help the LA Angels?

Michael Stefanic has had a meteoric rise through the LA Angels’ minor league system. If you exclude the cancelled 2020 season and his brief 14-game stint in rookie ball back in 2018, the 25-year-old has essentially risen from Low-A to Triple-A in just two seasons.

Even more impressive is the fact that he started out as a nondrafted free agent whom the Angels only signed after receiving one of his homemade prospect videos which he sent to every team. Now that’s what you call determination.

Despite never being recognized as a top prospect, Michael Stefanic has the talent to be an effective second basemen for the Angels.

Though he’s seen over 500 innings at shortstop, Michael Stefanic is most experienced as a second baseman (1111 innings), meaning Fletcher would likely be moved over to short or the bench (if Brendon Davis is called up as well) in this scenario.

Coincidentally, Stefanic is actually pretty similar to Fletcher as a hitter; he’s a high-contact, low-strikeout guy who puts the ball in play no matter what.

In his minor league career, Stefanic is slashing .314/.388/.436 (.824 OPS) with 44 doubles, 130 runs, 115 RBIs, and only 129 strikeouts across 241 games and 1019 plate appearances. One of the elite young hitters in the minors, his .336 BA and .408 OBP last year were second and third best, respectively, among all minor leaguers with at least 500 plate appearances in 2021.

What sets him apart from Fletcher, however, is his newfound power at the plate.

During the cancelled 2020 season, Stefanic took the time to reevaluate his hitting style and found a way to add some more launch angle to the balls he puts in play, without sacrificing his high-contact abilities.

The result was 17 home runs and a career-high .493 SLG% in 125 games last year. Granted, while this increase in home runs was no doubt aided by the fact that Triple-A West is a notoriously hitter friendly league, it doesn’t take away from the fact that his new hitting style is what enabled him to hit more fly balls in the first place.

For what it’s worth, Fangraphs’ 2022 ZiPS projections are somewhat positive on Stefanic’s bat, giving him a projected slash line of .266/.328/.380 (.708 OPS, 93 OPS+). Fletcher, meanwhile, is actually projected to do worse with a .693 OPS (more on that significance later).

As for his other stats, ZiPS is giving Stefanic 12 home runs, 19 doubles and 45 RBIs in 529 plate appearances. Also, remember that these projections are just a baseline, meaning that his actual offensive outlook could be even better than these numbers suggest, especially if his increased launch angle is here to stay.

Unfortunately, things aren't so cut and dry when it comes to Stefanic’s defensive skills. While he’s certainly improved as he’s progressed through the Angels’ farm system, he’s still not the most adept fielder.

In his 1111 innings at second, he owns a .974 fielding percentage, as well as 211 putouts and 319 assists, giving him a slightly above average 4.29 RF/9 (Range Factor per 9 innings) and 4.08 RF/G (Range Factor per game). He did, however, also commit 14 errors in this span.

Looking at just his numbers in Triple-A last season, he does compare quite favorably to the other second basemen in the western division.

On top of leading the west in games played at second (72), he also led the division in putouts (112), was second in assists (173), and third in fielding percentage (.973) and RF/G (3.958) among players with at least 40 games played.

If you want to be somewhat irresponsible and compare Stefanic’s total output from last year to a similar major leaguer, you’ll notice they stack up almost identically with Willi Castro, who was worth an abysmal -8 DRS and -3.5 UZR last season.

• Stefanic: 740 innings, 358 chances, 135 putouts, 214 assists, 9 errors, .975 Fld%, 4.24 RF/9

• Castro: 713.2 innings, 360 chances, 141 putouts, 211 assists, 8 errors, .978 Fld%, 4.44 RF/9

For reference, the league average for second basemen in Fld% last year was .988, while RF/9 was 4.04.

Now, it should go without saying, but these numbers should be taken with a massive grain of salt since minor league fielding metrics are very primitive compared to the majors (hence no DRS, UZR or Statcast data), meaning this isn’t exactly a one-to-one comparison. There simply isn’t enough publicly available hard data for things like positioning, range and reaction time.

That said, looking back at the ZiPS projections, Stefanic does earn a solid 2 in the defense stat, tying him for the third highest total on the team and just one point behind Fletcher.

Overall, there’s no denying Stefanic’s underlying talent at second, where he was a four-time Golden State Athletic Conference Gold Glover back in college. Plus, if his progress up to now is any indicator, getting some time with major league coaches and resources might be just what he needs to take his defense to the next level.  

Once again turning to the ZiPS projections, Stefanic has the fifth highest zWAR (the type of WAR used only in these projections) on the team with 1.5. For reference, Fletcher is right behind him with 1.4.

If that’s just a conservative estimate for what Stefanic can do in his rookie season, things are looking up for the young second baseman.

Bottom line, Stefanic looks major league ready right now and should be with the team on opening day.

Moving on to the new guy, Brendon Davis sure made an impact in his first minor league season since joining the LA Angels.

Once an unknown prospect, Brendon Davis has potential to be a more than capable shortstop for the Angels.

Following five subpar seasons in the Dodgers’ and Rangers’ farm systems, Brendon Davis finally broke out at the age of 23 with the LA Angels last year.

Setting career bests in pretty much every offensive category across three levels in the minors (including his first stint at Triple-A), the Halos’ 2020 rule 5 draft pick earned himself a spot on the team's 40-man roster back in November. This type of courtesy wasn’t even extended to Stefanic, showing that the front office really believes in this kid, enough that they didn’t want to risk losing him in minor league free agency.

After hitting .290/.361/.561 (.923 OPS) with 30 home runs, 29 doubles and 83 RBIs across 124 games last year, it’s easy to see why the Angels are so keen on keeping Davis around. Like Stefanic, he used the 2020 season to refine his swing and discover some new power at the plate, hence how he almost doubled his career home run total in just one season.

In Triple-A in particular, Davis performed incredibly well last year, albeit in just 31 games. Slashing .333/.409/.641 (1.050 OPS), he looked absolutely unstoppable at the plate. He even managed to cut down on his high strikeout rate, going from a 26.4% in Single-A and Double-A to 21.1%.

The only real concern with Davis now is whether or not he’s just a one-season wonder and if he’ll regress back to his pre-2021 state when his best season (2017) saw him produce a .720 OPS with only 11 home runs and a unsightly 30% strikeout rate.

Admittedly, the ZiPS projections aren’t too kind to Davis at the moment, giving him a .228/.287/.405 (.692 OPS, 86 OPS+) slash line, along with 145 strikeouts in 521 PAs (27.8%). It does, however, give him 20 home runs, 20 doubles and 58 RBIs, meaning if he can continue to cut down on his strikeouts he should be in a good position to thrive in the majors.

Coincidently, due to his better SLG%, Davis actually has the same projected OPS as Fletcher.

If you recall, Stefanic had a better OPS than Fletcher, meaning that from an offensive standpoint it might actually make more sense for him and Davis to start at second and short sooner rather than later, while Fletcher is relegated to a utility/defensive substitution role.

Dan Szymborski, the creator of ZiPS, believes this too, saying "if he has a .600 OPS next May... I’d rather demote Fletch back to a utility role."

Further helping Davis' starting status is his growing defensive talent at shortstop.

Though he’s logged over 4700 innings across five positions, his 1910 total innings at shortstop are his most at any single position.

Davis has notably played just under 1500 innings at third base as well (where ZiPS has him playing), but to be brutally honest, he’s looked absolutely horrible there and is seemingly getting worse each year, producing a career .938 Fld%, 2.46 RF/9 and inexplicably having the same number of errors as double plays turned with 27 each.

On the other hand, after a rough first few seasons at shortstop, Davis has really turned things around over his last couple of years. While his career numbers aren’t too good, his 2021 numbers look excellent, including a .973 Fld%, 3.96 RF/9, 3.84 RF/G, and only four errors in 37 games (323 total innings).

Comparing only his Triple-A stats to the other Triple-A West shortstops, what Davis lacks in volume (only 20 games played), he more than makes up for in performance. Out of every shortstop with at least 20 games played, Davis ranks fifth in Fld% (.978) and second in RF/G (4.35).

When stacked up against major leaguers with similar stats, Davis’ total 2021 output is most comparable to Andres Gimenez (5 DRS, 1.7 UZR) and Jake Cronenworth (-1 DRS, 1.1 UZR).

• Davis: 323 innings, 146 chances, 47 putouts, 95 assists, 4 errors, .973 Fld%, 3.96 RF/9

• Gimenez: 322.1 innings, 171 chances, 52 putouts, 113 assists, 6 errors, .965 Fld%, 4.61 RF/9

• Cronenworth: 326.2 innings, 130 chances, 46 putouts, 81 assists, 3 errors, .977 Fld%, 3.50 RF/9

Note that league averages in 2021 for shortstops were a .974 Fld% and 3.81 RF/9.

Slotting in nicely between the two, these numbers, on the surface, seem to suggest that Davis played like a slightly above average shortstop last year, and is only getting better. Considering what the Angels had to deal with in 2021, slightly above average looks godlike in comparison.

With all of that said, Davis only has 0.5 zWAR in the projections. This would likely be higher if he wasn’t listed as a third baseman, but is partially due to ZiPS not fully believing in his ability to cut down on strikeouts and make consistent contact.

However, if he can prove in either spring training or Triple-A this year that he can fix these problems, Davis should be with the major league team in no time. Whether that's as a bench player or as part of a new middle infield duo with Stefanic will depend on how the remainder of the offseason unfolds.