Mike Trout is primed for a major comeback in 2022

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Los Angeles Angels v Seattle Mariners / Stephen Brashear/GettyImages

When Mike Trout went down with a right calf injury to ultimately end his 2021 season, it was more than just a massive loss to the LA Angels and their fans, but also the end to something historic.

At the time, Trout was in the midst of one of the greatest starts to a season in baseball history, putting up an absurd 190 wRC+ as well as 2.3 fWAR in only 36 games. He was on pace for the best season of his already Hall of Fame career.

It’s a great shame we’ll never truly know just how incredible Trout’s 2021 season could have been, but that’s all in the rearview mirror.

Now, with the 2022 season (hopefully) just a couple months away, it’s time to start looking ahead to the future, and for the legendary Mike Trout, things are looking pretty bright.

Current projections have Mike Trout lined up for a comeback season for the ages.

Some people may be mildly concerned about Mike Trout, now 30 years old, to return to MVP form, especially since it’ll have been three years since he completed a full MLB season and six years since he’s done so without losing a decent chunk of time to injuries.

Nevertheless, the projections remain incredibly optimistic for Trout to return to the Angels’ lineup without missing a beat. Both ZiPS and Steamer, two of the top projection systems, currently have Trout lined up for yet another AL MVP season in 2022 (Hmm, I feel like there’s someone else on the Angels who I’ve said that for).

Tampa Bay Rays v Los Angeles Angels / Katelyn Mulcahy/GettyImages

Starting off with ZiPS, Mike Trout is projected to have one of the more unique seasons of his career in terms of raw production.

ZiPS has Mike Trout putting up MVP numbers in 2022, but in severely limited play time.

ZiPS: 452 PA, .274/.418/.581, 165 wRC+, 29 HR, 19 2B, 78 RBI, 82 BB, 107 K, 5.5 zWAR

Career 162 Game AVG: 712 PA, .305/.419/.583, 172 wRC+, 39 HR, 34 2B, 103 RBI, 109 BB, 153 K, 9.8 fWAR

While they may not be quite in line with his usual levels of greatness, these are some hefty numbers for Mike Trout to be putting up after missing most of 2021.

Remember, the whole point of these projections is to give a conservative, baseline estimate of how a player will perform, so for the best hitter in baseball you can expect to see him overperform these numbers across the board.

Case in point, there are only four players in baseball with at least 6 zWAR in ZiPS. Meanwhile, the 2021 season saw 10 players clear 6 fWAR including two with at least 7. 2019 was even greater as it featured 19 players with at least 6 fWAR, eight of whom topped 7 fWAR including two (including Trout) who cleared the 8 fWAR mark.

So worry not, Trout only having 5.5 zWAR (tied for sixth best in the league) in these projections is still MVP level play.

Even with this in mind, the main thing that stands out here is the massive gap in Trout’s counting stats between ZiPS and his career averages.

Due to ZiPS more heavily weighing a player’s performance over the last three seasons, Trout’s total PAs here are 260 fewer than normal.

At this point in his career, health concerns will always be a huge worry for Trout, so it’s not wrong to be at least a little pessimistic at his ability to contribute a full season, especially when he will likely receive regular off days towards the start and end of the season so as to not overwork him.

Still, the 452 PA figure is well below the 507 mark he posted in 2017 when he only appeared in 114 games (and finished fourth in AL MVP voting). This doesn’t bode particularly well for his hopes of playing even two thirds of the 2022 season.

Trout’s batting average is also substantially lower than his career mark, which makes sense for anyone coming back after missing a whole year. Thankfully, his OBP and SLG are still right in line with his usual marks so it's not really a huge loss.

With all of this in mind, comparing Trout’s numbers to the rest of the LA Angels, he actually still finishes top of the team in zWAR, wRC+, OBP, SLG, and walks, as well as second in home runs and third in RBIs and AVG.

As a result, while Trout is projected to finish with some of the lowest totals of his career in many stats, he is still going to be the best hitter on the team and, at least according to zWAR, one of the best players in all of baseball. Turns out below average Mike Trout is still better than 99.9% of the league.

Los Angeles Angels v Toronto Blue Jays / Douglas P. DeFelice/GettyImages

Moving on to Steamer, these projections are much more optimistic, possibly even too optimistic, over how Mike Trout will perform for the LA Angels in 2022.

Steamer sees Mike Trout returning to 100% productivity despite his recent injury history.

Steamer: 648 PA, .271/.406/.547, 155 wRC+, 37 HR, 25 2B, 103 RBI, 110 BB, 149 K, 6.1 fWAR

Career 162 Game AVG: 712 PA, .305/.419/.583, 172 wRC+, 39 HR, 34 2B, 103 RBI, 109 BB, 153 K, 9.8 fWAR

Not only would Mike Trout would be the runaway favorite to win Comeback Player of the Year with these numbers, but he would also be the only real competition for teammate Shohei Ohtani in AL MVP consideration. In fact, Trout is one of only five guys in all of baseball to clear 6 fWAR in Steamer.

Steamer practically has Trout reaching his career norms in every counting stat which is an impressive feat for a guy coming off a season-ending injury ahead of his age 30 season.

Trout’s 37 home runs and 103 RBIs would each be the fourth most in his career, while his 110 walks would be tied for his third best total.

However, 149 strikeouts would also be the third highest mark ever for Trout, so an inflated K rate is something to keep an eye on during the season as he shakes off the rust.

Doubles is the only stat that Steamer has Trout greatly lagging in compared to prior years, with 25 being his lowest ever in a full season.

The same could actually be said for his projected stolen base totals (9 in ZiPS, 7 in Steamer) which I didn’t include above since it's been known for a while now that Trout is likely never again going to be a 40 SB guy, let alone a 20 SB guy, at this stage of his career.

Also, like with ZiPS, Trout’s batting average is much lower than usual here, but unfortunately so is his slugging percentage. At .547, this would be the lowest mark since his debut season in 2011. Even if we make the easy assumption that he will overperform such a cautious estimate, it’s not certain if he will break .600 like he has so many times before.

Regardless, as mentioned before, below average numbers for Mike Trout are still better than almost everyone else.

Steamer has Trout topping the LA Angels in fWAR, wRC+, OBP, SLG, walks, and RBIs, while finishing second in home runs, third in doubles, and fourth in AVG.

As for where he ranks in the whole league, Trout is top-10 in fWAR, wRC+, OBP, SLG, walks, RBIs, and home runs.

Realistically, Trout's actual numbers in 2022 will probably be somewhere in between the ZiPS and Steamer projections. It's just really hard to believe even he would be capable of playing a full season and that the Angels would risk overworking him after all the time he's missed over the past few years.

Next. Projecting our Opening Day starting rotation during lockout. dark

Then again, if anyone can defy the odds and actually manage to come back after missing almost an entire year and somehow perform anywhere close to these projections, it's Trout.

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