Coming into this series against the Chicago White Sox, the Los Angeles Angels had lost four of five games, but after winning the first two of this four-game set LA is up into second in the AL West at 44-37. The White Sox are fourth in the Central, 34-47. Last night the Angels took a 4-2 on the back of 6.1 innings of one-run ball on the mound from Shohei Ohtani and two home runs at the plate from Ohtani.
For Game 3 as the Angels try to secure the series win, they’ll send Jaime Barria to the mound at home. Barria has made four starts this year and 12 appearances out of the bullpen, working to a 2-2 record with a 2.14 ERA. Chicago will counter with Lucas Giolito who is 5-5 with a 3.41 ERA.
The Angels are favorites over Chicago tonight, so let’s get into the odds for this matchup.
White Sox vs. Angels odds, run line and total
White Sox vs. Angels prediction and pick
Barria is not a staple of the LA rotation, but when he’s made starts he has fared pretty well. The worry is that he’s about to get overexposed by working more innings. Barria has a 3.69 FIP which is much higher than his 2.14 ERA. That’s something you see from relievers more because they don’t have to cover nearly as many innings and aren’t over exposed.
Lucas Giolito might be in the same boat even though he has been a starter all year long. Giolito only gave up three runs in his last start and only one was earned, but his FIP is 4.19 and his expected ERA is 4.26. That screams regression just like for Barria. One of these two starters is going to have a really rough outing in this one, it’s just a matter of which. The great thing about gambling is there is this little thing called an over/under, so we don’t have to figure out which pitcher will be the one to struggle.
The over feels like a great play in this matchup especially because the White Sox are 25th in bullpen ERA this year, so even if Giolito is strong in this game, there will still be a chance for runs to come in from the sixth or seventh inning until the final out.
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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change