Power ranking AL West if the Alex Bregman reports are true and the Astros lose him

Winning the American League West might finally be an attainable goal for a non-Houston Astros team for the first time in a long, long time. The division has been dominated by the Astros for nearly a decade, as they have won it every season since 2017 (outside of the 60-game 2020 season). In that time the Angels have been finding themselves finishing a couple games below .500 at best, the A's have largely been either a playoff team or well out of contention, the Rangers opened up their wallets and were rewarded for their efforts with a World Series victory in 2023, and the Mariners broke a 20 year playoff drought and compiled a nice core group of players.

The Astros have several questions following their unceremonious playoff loss to the Tigers last year. The main question will be how their lineup fares without Kyle Tucker, and maybe even Alex Bregman. It sure seems like it could be the end of an era for Houston without those two lineup stalwarts. ESPN's Buster Olney laid it out clearly when he answered the question as to which player he was most excited to see with his new team in 2025:

"Alex Bregman, who is likely to land with the Red Sox, Cubs or Tigers soon; sources in the Astros organization are skeptical he'll return to Houston."

Buster Olney

Instead of locking up Kyle Tucker and his career .870 OPS, the Astros dealt him, and later Ryan Pressly, to the Cubs. Oh, and they lost Yusei Kikuchi and Justin Verlander too. Even following a report that the Astros increased their offer, many are saying a return to Houston could be out of the question for Bregman. Tucker, Bregman, Verlander, and Pressly were pillars of that roster for years. Will losing them cripple this semi-dynastic run?

Power ranking the American League West if the Astros do wind up losing Alex Bregman

PECOTA projections and the baseball community indicate that the Rangers are the team to beat in the AL West. PECOTA simulates 90.8 wins for the Rangers, and projects them as the best team in the entire American League. They were not able surpass the Astros in the regular season standings the year they won the World Series, but 2025 is shaping up to be a big one in Arlington, TX.

Corey Seager played in 123 games last year, and he is a good bet for AL MVP if he is able to get into the 145+ games played territory. Adding Joc Pederson, Kyle Higashioka, and Jake Burger to a lineup already with Seager, Marcus Semien, Adolis García, Wyatt Langford, and Josh Smith makes Texas quite formidable. Factor in possible bounce-back years from guys like Evan Carter, Josh Jung, and Ezequiel Duran and you're looking at maybe the best lineup in baseball.

The Astros still feel inevitable, despite losing Tucker, Pressly, Kikuchi, Verlander, and maybe Bregman. Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Spencer Arrighetti, Ronel Blanco, and Hayden Wesneski are a force to be reckoned with on the mound. Not to mention Yordan Alvarez, Christian Walker, Jose Altuve, Jeremy Peña, Isaac Paredes, and Yainer Diaz. The Mariners could be right there with Houston and Texas, given they have their own top-of-the-line rotation, Julio Rodríguez, and a full season of Randy Arozarena. PECOTA has Houston and Seattle right around 87 wins. They both feel awfully flimsy though, right?

The Astros are shaking up what was once one of the most reliable clubhouses in baseball. Houston was able to withstand a terrible beginning to 2024 largely because of their roster continuity, Tucker and Bregman's on-field performances (they were two of their three most valuable position players), and Kikuchi pitching like an absolute demon for them post-trade deadline. Bregman's off-field intangibles will be dearly missed if he does depart for Boston, Detroit, or Chicago.

Seattle's lineup was not addressed whatsoever. Donovan Solano was brought in, but he is in no way a needle-mover on paper. Their defense is always above average, but the park factors and lack of offseason activity will aid their run production.

PECOTA views the Angels as a better team than the A's next year, but it's certainly possible they can catch either Seattle or Houston if they can round out the roster over the next month or so. If one of their clubhouses lose faith -- Houston's due to the departed leaders or Seattle's due to ownership frustration -- then perhaps a rejuvenated Mike Trout and a great young core of players in Anaheim could...finish third?

There are just far too many ifs surrounding the Angels, particularly health wise. The Angels are up against it even if they can stay healthy, bolster their bullpen, and see several breakout candidates. Lofty projections for the 2025 Angels are just not rational given what the organization has shown on the field the past decade.

American League West Prediction
1. Rangers
2. Astros
3. Angels
4. Mariners
5. A's

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