Reliable projection system forecasts Angels improvement but by how much?

With spring training just underway, the Angels are getting the band back together and prepping for the new season. Nothing is yet set in stone. There will be changes -- young players will come to camp vastly improved, veterans will struggle, injuries will continue to occur.

While depth charts currently are written in pencil rather than etched in stone, it makes sense to start looking at projections, figure out how the team may land, and compare that to their stated goals.

This is where PECOTA by Baseball Prospectus comes in. The proprietary projection system takes all of the data from recent years into account and runs several simulations to account for player and team performance arriving at projected standings.

Like all projection systems, this is an inexact science. No one has a crystal ball, and like most good data projections what happened most recently is the best indicator of what will happen in the future. That means if a player was injured last season (something that happened a lot with the 2024 Angels) they'll be projected to play fewer games and in turn impact the outcomes less in PECOTA's 2025 projections.

So with the methodology and limitations in mind, what does PECOTA have to say about the 2025 Angels? Well, the simulator has projected the Angels to finish 75-87 with a 5.4% chance of making the playoffs via either winning the division or earning a Wild Card berth.

This tells us the Angels will be better than their dismal 63-99 2024 campaign, but they will likely still fall well short of the stated goal of competing. With that said, there are reasons to believe the Angels will be both better or worse than these projections.

Optimistic and pessimistic takes on the Angels' 2025 PECOTA projection

The Angels roster is better than it was in 2024. This is for certain. While you can certainly complain about some of the players the team missed out on, they did address clear needs. They upgraded the league's most dreadful DH situation by trading for Jorge Soler, added rotation depth in the form of Yusei Kikuchi and Kyle Hendricks, and strengthened the pen with Kenley Jansen.

Aside from those upgrades, there are two other reasons why the Angels may exceed those projections this season. First and foremost is health. Several key players were bitten by the injury bug last season, and the war of attrition over the course of the 2024 season was just too much for the team to overcome.

Mike Trout might never be the 150+ games per season iron man he was earlier in his career, but it's likely he plays much more than the career-low 29 he was limited to last year. Players like Luis Rengifo, José Soriano, and others should play more as well. Their past injuries are factored into the PECOTA projections, and if the team can catch a break with health, things may play out a bit rosier than projected.

Secondly, the projection system may not accurately account for steps forward taken by young players, and the Angels have a lot of youngsters who can make significant leaps forward in 2025.

For example, Logan O'Hoppe could take a step forward now that he's accustomed to the grind of a major league season, and not see a precipitous drop in performance like he did last season where he posted a first-half OPS of .800 and a second-half mark of .578.

Zach Neto could take another step forward on the path to superstardom. Nolan Schanuel could unlock his power stroke. Christian Moore could be otherworldly once he debuts. On the pitching side, Soriano could establish himself as an ace, Reid Detmers could get his head on straight, and Caden Dana and a slew of other young arms could make positive impacts.

The chances of all of the above happening are unlikely, however, the chance of some of these possibilities coming to fruition is high, and since the data is either non-existent or not indicative of the potential for positive change.

On the flip side, last year already serves as a test case for why a pessimistic outcome may be in the cards. The young core was largely already in place and it didn't matter much when it came to winning ball games. The health of many key players is already up for debate, just as it was last season. Furthermore, certain upgrades like Yusei Kikuchi will only be upgrades if all breaks right.

What is certain is that the Angels, on paper, are a better team than they were a year ago. The depth is better. Some key holes have been addressed. Many of the departures are addition by subtraction.

All of that means an improvement of 12 games in the win column is a solid baseline expectation. In fact, winning 12 more games given the team hasn't added any true stars is a testament to how much better the depth has gotten.

At the end of the day, the projections will update again, and the way things look may be different based on an array of factors from spring training. The Angels may still add a player or two. A major injury could derail things. Surprises are bound to happen as the spring action swings into full gear.

It's safe to say the Angels will be better in 2024, but it's also pretty safe to say they'll fail in their endeavor to truly compete in 2025.

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