Ryan Johnson’s turnaround for Angels since August is impressive, but there is a catch

The Los Angeles Angels' starting rotation has been superb of late, dominating opponents and setting the scene for a potential renaissance in Anaheim. It's been ages since the club had a competent group of starters, and this unit is leaning on its young guns and projecting a bright future.

Leading the way have been Reid Detmers and Walbert Urena. Detmers leads the league in ERA during the second half with a 1.37 mark. Meanwhile, Urena has been authoring the best rookie season the franchise has seen since Jered Weaver 20 years ago. These two aren't in question, but the arms that back them up in the rotation might be.

Specifically, Ryan Johnson stands out as the X-factor. The six-foot-six righty proving to be a legitimate mid-rotation arm would go a long way to solidifying the unit and would help ease the admittedly unfair expectations placed on him as the Shohei Ohtani consolation prize.

Like the rest of the starters, Johnson has been on fire since August 1, posting a 2.11 ERA over seven starts and 38 1/3 innings pitched. It's an encouraging performance; it could be the start of Johnson proving that not only is he for real, but the rotation as a whole is ready to contend. It's a fact that's not lost on him.

“I feel like I’m strong and still in my stride, even this late in the season,” Johnson said following his September 4 start against the Pittsburgh Pirates. "That means everything to have that consistency piece, and it’s still far from what I want to be doing. I want to do it for a full season, then for years and years, not just for half a season.”

Despite the hot streak, Ryan Johnson has a lot to iron out to prove he's an Angels' rotation building block

A 2.11 ERA is hard to sneeze at, but there are some serious warning signs that nothing has materially changed with Johnson's production, which had been awful up to this point. From Opening Day through July 31, Johnson had a 7.36 ERA over 46 innings of work.

During that span, he struggled tremendously with the long ball, allowing 2.35 HR/9, while also striking out far too few batters (17.5%) to sustain his elevated 9.5% walk rate. Even if his metrics like xFIP (5.23) and xERA (5.37) looked better than the actual results, they still predicted below-average performance.

Over his last seven starts, Johnson is still struggling to strike batters out with a 17.1% K-rate, and walking batters even more frequently with a 12.5% free pass rate. His home run suppression has been better, but that's only because he was abysmal before, as his 1.41 HR/9 since August 1 is still too high.

The 24-year-old's xFIP (5.48) and xERA (5.02) are more or less in line with his pre August 1 performance, indicating that not much has actually changed. Johhnson's season ERA sits at 5.12, which is more or less what these advanced metrics have been saying about his performance all along.

Another key indicator that this has been a hot streak mostly fueled by luck is the fact that Johnson has recorded an extremely unsustainable 98.3% left on-base rate.

This isn't to say that it's time to write Johnson off. He clearly has talent and has been subject to some of the most egregious development mismanagement by a team known for mismanaging player development. For all of the struggles, he's also done a decent job of limiting hard contact, with average exit velocity and hard-hit marks both coming in the 61st percentile.

The good news is that the regime responsible for the mishandling of player development is gone, and new ownership is expected to invest significantly more into the technology needed to help players improve. Johnson has a lot of work to do, but with the upcoming changes, he could still reach his full potential and become an important piece in the rotation. He's simply not there yet.

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