The Angels will have a decent bullpen if they can fix this one problematic stat

The Angels have faced a multitude of challenges this season throughout the ebbs and flows of their early-season performance. Both the lineup and rotation have looked good at points and terrible at others, as the team has sandwiched exciting moments where they've played above expectations with a prolonged streak where it appeared as if nothing could go right.

One constant for the club has been bottom-of-the-barrel production from their bullpen. The unit was dealt a big blow with a season-ending injury to Ben Joyce in early April, and the constant shuffling and re-shuffling of the pieces has done the club no favors.

Some struggles were to be expected. With the lone exception of Kenley Jansen, the Halos went with a youth movement in the 'pen for Opening Day by featuring two rookies in Garrett McDaniels and Ryan Johnson, two starters-turned-relievers in Reid Detmers and Ian Anderson, and two other options without lengthy track records of success in Ryan Zeferjahn and Brock Burke.

However, after a stellar start, Jansen has become a little more unreliable, the inexperienced arms have not performed and the parade of injury replacements has unsurprisingly left a lot to be desired.

As a result, the bullpen owns a league-worst 6.66 through May 21, and has been the one part of the team that hasn't given fans any hope so far this season. However, if they can fix one fatal flaw, the situation in the pen might not be as bleak as it appears.

Fixing this one stat would do a world of good for the Angels' bullpen

One key issue has led to the Angels' bullpen bottoming out this season -- the propensity to give up the long ball. By HR/9, the team is far and away the leader in the clubhouse in this dubious stat. Angels relievers have surrendered a league-worst 1.78 HR/9, with a gulf between them and the next-worst team, the Arizona Diamondbacks, who sit at 1.37.

Looking at it a different way, 16.4% of fly balls the Angels' pen generates leave the yard, another league-worst mark, and two percent higher than the next worst performer, the crosstown Dodgers.

Outside of the homer issue, the bullpen hasn't been great, but it hasn't been nearly as horrid as the ERA suggests either. In terms of K/9, the Angels rank middle of the pack, coming in at 14th in the league with an 8.73 mark.

In a league that prioritizes velocity, the Halo bullpen's 95.2 miles per hour average fastball ranks 12th. They're also relatively decent at keeping the ball on the ground, coming in 21st with a 41.1% mark. Walks are an issue with a 4.37 BB/9, however, that number still ranks 25th, significantly better than where the club ranks on the ERA leaderboard.

The best illustration of what the Angels' bullpen is versus what it could be would be to compare the ERA (or actual results) versus the unit's xFIP, which shows what the performance would look like if they could get the homer issue under control.

xFIP, which stands for expected fielding-independent pitching, is an ERA estimator like its namesake, FIP. While FIP focuses on only what's in a pitcher's direct control -- walks, strikeouts, and home runs -- xFIP takes the home run to fly ball ratio and normalizes it to 10.5%, which is approximately league average.

That's nearly a six-percent reduction in HR/FB ratio for the Angels, and as a result, the relievers' collective xFIP sits a 4.46, over two runs lower than their ERA and the largest gap between ERA and xFIP in the league.

An ERA of 4.46 would rank 21st in MLB, .01 behind the 20th-place Pittsburgh Pirates. That's still not great, but it's a long way from the horrendous performance they've turned in to date.

It's easier said than done to simply stop giving up the long ball, but if the Angels can get the mistakes in the zone that get crushed under control, the rest of the underlying metrics paint a picture of a group that is a bit below average, rather than the worst unit in baseball.

With everything else rounding into form in the lineup and rotation for the most part, that would be a huge boost to a team that is looking to play competitive baseball in 2025.

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